@jcanfil
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Assistant Professor @CarnegieMellon ■ Fmr @BelferCenter @CFR_org @Princeton ■ PhD @Columbia ■ science & tech competition, arms control, int’l security, 美中关系
New York
Joined November 2009
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1/ Technology is always advancing. So what does it take to future-proof the law? My latest research in @IntOrgJournal argues that efforts to maximize legal clarity can actually undermine the law’s resilience.
cup.org/4bX6mKJ
jkc retweeted
52 delegations raised space security at UN #FirstCommittee last week.
#Gabon warned of an arms race already underway. The #UK warned of a return to competing diplomatic tracks.
Can diplomacy keep pace with military competition?
Via @RCW_
reachingcriticalwill.org/ima…
jkc retweeted
@mchorowitz and I have found it most helpful to think of every weapon as fitting into one of 5 possible types. There are 3 basic types: unguided, semi-autonomous, and autonomous. Semi-autonomous and autonomous weapon systems can then ea be either supervised or unsupervised
jkc retweeted
Why do states wait to govern emerging technologies? In @ISQ_Jrnl, CMIST’s @jcanfil identifies an "opacity trap" in which the mutual secrecy needed for technological competition delays recognition that competition may be counterproductive. academic.oup.com/isq/article…
jkc retweeted
I've been spending a lot of time thinking about how to talk about international law so the public will listen.
With colleagues, I organized a conference on this topic co-sponsored by @CarnegieEndow, @asilorg, and @LexIntl_org.
Read all about it here:
carnegieendowment.org/resear…
jkc retweeted
Andrade on Precedent and Legal Change: legaltheoryblog.com/?p=11395…
This is so cool!
Teaching Jurisprudence at Cambridge for the very first time tomorrow! Cannot wait to get the students started on HLA Hart - and move beyond.
If you want a flavour of what that’s like, here is a quiz I built last year with Claude.
jurisprudence-quiz.netlify.a…
7/ The paradox is that we may need to compete in order to learn that we would have been better off cooperating.
By then, the technology we hoped to master may have already found its way into more dangerous hands.
Read Open Access in @ISQ_Jrnl: academic.oup.com/isq/article…
Ironically, this paper took a full 9.5 years from first circulation to publication, a fitting fate for a paper on why the problems we see coming can still take years to address.
Special thanks to the editors, some great reviewers, and to @sawada_hiroto & @aybukedere for excellent research assistance. Hiroto is on the job market this year! If you're hiring in IR, give him a look!
jkc retweeted
🚨 New paper 🚨
Are your participants using AI to take your study?
We conducted the first study directly observing AI assistance in online research, spanning 700K+ Prolific submissions.
We found very rare, concentrated AI use, but gaps in safeguards.
arxiv.org/abs/2610.09279
jkc retweeted
"Given the enormous uncertainty around the development of this technology, what would justify assigning a 10 percent risk, rather than say 30, or even 1 percent?"
buff.ly/eBOlGEl
jkc retweeted
The end of an era of US dominance in science
via @Nature
nature.com/articles/d41586-0…
jkc retweeted
"The uncertainty is not just about how likely a catastrophic event would be but also the mechanisms through which those outcomes would emerge." writes
@sekreps in her new piece on AI risk.
buff.ly/eBOlGEl