Investor. Former hedge fund analyst - Kerrisdale. Ian's Insider Corner newsletter on SeekingAlpha and Substack.

Sincelejo, Colombia
Joined February 2016
Ian Bezek retweeted
I'll put it this way: hats off to you. I couldn't have said it better myself. As someone who lived in Paraguay for six years, I honestly get a headache every time I read the bullshit people post about that country, painting it as some kind of paradise on Earth. For fuck's sake, they manage to present every single flaw as a virtue. You go to a supermarket and the cashiers move at a snail's pace? Oh, how wonderful! That's because nobody is in a hurry in this country! The quality of services is absolute shit? Turns out that's another massive advantage! Because everyone's so laid-back, nobody gets stressed, there's no rat race, and above all, steak is cheap and you don't have to pay those horrible 50% taxes! You constantly read about how Europe has supposedly become a Muslim continent, completely overrun by Muslims, and how it's basically finished. Meanwhile, thousands of Paraguayans dream of moving even to the poorer European countries, let alone those who would give their right arm for a chance to move to Germany, France, or Italy. The reality is that Paraguay is a country with virtually no meaningful infrastructure, a dysfunctional healthcare and educacional system, and practically nonexistent human capital. It's a country built for and around a narrow elite that knows exactly how to extract maximum profits from a tax system optimized for their benefit and a quasi-feudal social structure that keeps most of the population in a state of extreme ignorance. And here, I strongly recommend taking a look at Paraguay's PISA test results. Meanwhile, a tiny group of beneficiaries makes an absolute fortune precisely because the vast majority of society consists of complete idiots who apparently need nothing more than empty slogans to get through life. And then I come across some guy from a developed civilization - Spain, the United States, or some other developed country - singing Paraguay's praises to the heavens, absolutely ecstatic about how wonderful life there supposedly is. The cognitive dissonance is so extreme it makes my head explode. That's why, without wanting to sound too modest, quite a few people consider me Paraguay's number-one hater. But really, I'm just trying to restore some kind of balance to the universe, because it drives me absolutely fucking insane to read the bullshit these people keep posting - bullshit that has absolutely nothing to do with reality.
23
12
9
117
22,857
Ian Bezek retweeted
Brazil's election result reaches $INTR through several channels. Over time it can lower cost of risk. Right now it moves the stock and resets expectations, and Inter is up 15% pre-market. Few stocks are better placed to benefit. The business itself stands to gain: lower long-term rates mean cheaper new loans, cheaper funding and customers who find it easier to keep up with payments. And the share price hit a new 52-week low only last week, so expectations were already at the floor. Inter doesn't have a growth problem. It has a profitability problem. Its return on equity barely clears what investors demand from a Brazilian bank, so the market has refused to pay for its growth. This election could start to change that. At around $6, the stock trades at 7.8x this year's earnings, 6.1x next year's and about 1.4x tangible book. Nothing is decided yet, though. The runoff is on 25 October, and in 2022 the first-round surprise didn't hold.
Anyone valuing $INTR like a normal company will look at $NU’s stock price in disbelief. $INTR is a bank. Value it like one. EPS, revenue growth, the P/E multiple, none of it tells you much until you understand the cost of risk. I got this wrong myself in the past, but I learned. Right now, I think $INTR is priced about right. But the inputs that actually drive a bank’s valuation can turn on a dime, and the stock usually moves before the reported numbers do. There’s a lot you can infer about $INTR from $NU’s earnings report. I still own shares of $INTR, and I’m not surprised the stock is where it is. But I also know where it can go if certain things happen, both to the upside and the downside. Understand that, and you can hold the stock without second-guessing every move. Read the risk better than the market does, and that’s where the real money sits. I covered this topic on my Substack last week.
2
5
1
53
16,359
BIG NEWS! Yellowbrick 2.0 is live. For >3 years, we've tracked 4,000+ authors and collected 35,000+ stock pitches. The new Yellowbrick includes: - Leaderboards - API access - Custom feeds and alerts - Paid research partners/discounts - and more
18
28
7
113
33,606
Ian Bezek retweeted
LIVE NOW 🔥 Dario, Hegseth, and Paxton on the hotseat 🦬 AOC becomes a Bills fan 🇧🇷 Bolsonaro vs. Lula in Brazil w/ @irbezek, @pjchougule, @keendawg xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1aJbdEvZB…
4
5
1,647
Ian Bezek retweeted
$CAAP Argy concession extension up to 2056 🚀🚀 lanacion.com.ar/economia/el-…
3
1
26
4,115
Ian Bezek retweeted
It's getting to the point where trying to convince someone he or she should own bonds is like trying to convince someone to own energy in 2020
25
16
3
308
170,505
This week's newsletter is all about the Mexican airport stocks. I look at the pros, cons, and everything else investors should know about $PAC, $OMAB, and $ASR. canadiandividendinvesting.co…
8
3
1
43
9,795
Ian Bezek retweeted
If $FICO at 40x GAAP earnings and 30x EBITDA is apparently a consensus "value" stock, it's time to retire the idea of value investing. It had a good run. And now it's done.
17
6
2
197
23,520
"No one drinks spirits anymore." BF/B sell-out +8%, shipments +7%.
3
4
1
48
6,163
Ian Bezek retweeted
*Laughs in Colombian market*
The S&P 500 is up 12% this year. Are you beating it? Be honest.
7
4
233
23,726
Ian Bezek retweeted
Strategy has a ~$10B unrealized loss on its ~840,000 BTC treasury holdings and pays ~$1.2B / year to finance that exposure through their perpetual preferreds
Bitcoin is the only game in the casino where we can all win.
16
15
282
39,538
Colombia is the comeback kid of the year, with local bonds posting a ~30% total return ($ unhedged). We are eagerly awaiting the fiscal consolidation plan, but the new administration's just-announced Milei-style mini-steps to reduce spending are sending the right signal.
7
101
7
355
87,782
Ian Bezek retweeted
Need to actually read this Fundsmith letter to believe it - wild stuff
30
57
11
948
165,409
Ian Bezek retweeted
I remember reading Soccernomics back in the day, which predicted that Turkey was going to be a soccer powerhouse. The point of the book was to use the same analytical, data-driven framework of Freakonomics to debunk long-standing myths and clichés in the soccer world. Their core thesis was that international soccer success isn’t mostly about passion, tactics, or “football DNA.” It’s heavily predicted by population size (bigger talent pool) + GDP per capita/wealth (ability to fund proper academies, coaching, infrastructure, and pay for expertise) + some accumulated experience. Given this criteria, the authors singled out a group of emerging soccer powers - the United States, Japan, Australia, Turkey, and even Iraq. China and India got honorable mentions too. Two decades later... we can confidently say that this has ended up serving up a neat parable for the hubris of Enlightenment rationalism in a data-obsessed age. It confidently charts the future on spreadsheets, treating nations as interchangeable economic units where the inputs (money and number of bodies) inevitably produce excellence. What it misses is the stubbornly human mess: culture, corruption, institutional trust, political meddling, the intangible fire of collective identity, and the competence required to turn potential into performance. Turkey looked good on paper, according to the framework. It had the numbers. But in the end, the data failed to capture what actually makes for a winning national football team. Also - yes it's football. Until the Americans win the World Cup, as the Soccernomics model predicts that some day...it will.
Turkey left like this for the World Cup just to end with 0 goals, 0 points and a group stage exit
133
222
36
2,906
648,317
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste $ASR - Owns airport concessions all over LATAM - Owns Cancun, a top-5 LATAM airport by volume - 40%+ operating margins - Increased EPS 3x from 2016-25 - Great balance sheet - ~5% dividend yield - Trades for just 14x earnings
4
2
1
73
20,087
This is Yahoo logic
One of the things that makes @SpaceX so valuable is how valuable it is. The Cursor acquisition costs materially less in dilution because of SpaceX’s high valuation. SpaceX’s ability to do economically, strategically, and technologically accretive acquisitions is an important component of its value. There is enormous value inherent to a company with a high value particularly when it is controlled by an entrepreneur that the most talented people want to work for and partner with. Value begets value. Talent begets talent.
33
17
1
518
87,236
Their is a huge bull case for Latin America here: The region is finally moving past decades of boom bust cycles with fiscal discipline and structural reform. Countries leading the way: Argentina (Javier Milei): Driving one of the most ambitious fiscal adjustments in modern history to eliminate deficits and curb inflation.  Brazil: Digital infrastructure leader in the region with the PIX payment rails, and tech hub for investment. Mexico: Mexico’s unique position as a global manufacturing powerhouse for US is the epicenter of international nearshoring. El Salvador (Nayib Bukele): Implementing a drastic shift in public security that has fundamentally altered the domestic landscape, creating a new baseline for governance. Opened up tourism market. I think it’s an investment theme that is widely under discussed.
10
5
2
75
13,386
Ian Bezek retweeted
Replying to @mattkratter
The document you cite clearly states that BTC Yield is a narrow KPI used to assess per-share accretion solely as it pertains to bitcoin holdings. It is not a measure of financial performance, valuation, liquidity, ROI, book value, or stockholder return. Full financial analysis requires a more comprehensive review of our financial statements and SEC disclosures.
6
16
1
130
10,099
Ian Bezek retweeted
$INTR is a long @$6.40. Materially oversold over past month. Hyper-growth digital banking powerhouse in Brazil trading at 7x EPS. Currently running a 15.5% ROE but guiding a 28% ROE at mid-point by 2029. If mgmt hits target, co is sub-3x 2029 EPS. ROE target highly achievable 1/n
10
8
2
101
13,713
Ian Bezek retweeted
MAGA! Fin.
649
2,865
151
22,105
556,805