I’m a winter weather nut living in a warm climate in North Carolina, and neither of those is going to change
Charlotte, NC, USA
Joined July 2015
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This is basically what I’ve done all year to see what the weather is going to be like for weekend golf - just look at the Euro AI and WeatherNext (Google DM). Don’t bother much with the others
🌀AI Models Dominate Isaias Forecast
By now you’ve heard that Google Deep Mind nailed the #Hurricane #Isaias track forecast, but this shows just how dominant it was. The graph shows the forecast error… less error = more accurate.
~72 hours before landfall out the Google Deep Mind AI ensemble was only off by 19 miles, Euro AI by only 36 miles! There are lots of negative uses of AI, but weather forecasting is one example in which AI can be beneficial.
griteater retweeted
🌀AI Models Dominate Isaias Forecast
By now you’ve heard that Google Deep Mind nailed the #Hurricane #Isaias track forecast, but this shows just how dominant it was. The graph shows the forecast error… less error = more accurate.
~72 hours before landfall out the Google Deep Mind AI ensemble was only off by 19 miles, Euro AI by only 36 miles! There are lots of negative uses of AI, but weather forecasting is one example in which AI can be beneficial.
griteater retweeted
The September global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) index was the highest monthly value since at least 1950 (ERA5 data).
This illustrates the atmospheric component of the extreme El Niño: Pacific convection is transferring huge westerly momentum away from the equator
The chart is based on data related to this paper from Takahashi et. al - ENSO regimes: Reinterpreting the canonical and Modoki El Nino - agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.…
Data: met.igp.gob.pe/datos/ecindex…
ENSO Data from Eric Webb: webberweather.com/ensemble-o…
griteater retweeted
An amazing video of Dolly Parton singing one of her most famous songs in Páidí Ó Sé’s pub in Ventry Co. Kerry 🇮🇪 in 1990
How did Páidí pull that coup off
#RIPDolly
Aug 19 release of the IRI dynamical multi-model ENSO average shows an El Nino tri-monthly peak of +3.4 occurring in OND & NDJ.
Here is how much the dynamical multi-model peak has risen since the March model release:
March: +1.5 (NDJ)
April: +1.8 (OND & NDJ)
May: +2.2 (OND & NDJ)
June: +2.6 (SON)
July: +3.2 (OND)
August: +3.4 (OND & NDJ)
Here are the all-time highest ENSO tri-monthly values from Eric Webb's ENSO Ensemble ONI Index research back to 1850 (+2.4 or greater shown):
1877-1878: +2.6 (OND), +2.7 (NDJ), +2.7 (DJF)
1982-1983: +2.4 (NDJ), +2.4 (DJF)
1997-1998: +2.4 (SON), +2.5 (OND), +2.6 (NDJ), +2.5 (DJF)
2015-2016: +2.6 (OND), +2.7 (NDJ), +2.5 (DJF)
Reference: webberweather.com/ensemble-o…
#ElNino
griteater retweeted
Coming soon: a brand new GSDM website.
I know that some of you were users of the now defunct GSDM website which had replicated the original ESRL-hosted site where you could access the GWO, Hovmollers of AAM anomalies and its forcings (budget terms). I have rebuilt this from scratch using the new CORe data set. The v2.0 site will be MUCH richer, offering AAM analogs, LIM forecasts, regional contributions for AAM (as well as TauM), wind vector maps highlighting which wind perturbations are most strongly contributing to the zonal mean structures, detailed guidance on how to interpret the data and more! The idea is to better enable users to connect diagnosis of the general circulation to what it means for the forecast. A few sample plots below to whet the appetite!
griteater retweeted
How many of us do this? The snow blower is in the garage and the car is in the driveway!
When you open the garage door and see this, do you:
1/look to see if the leaf blower is in the garage too?
2/rev up the snowblower and try not to take out your front tires OR
3/Just close the door and wait til spring? 😅