@WeatherProf
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WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB
Tampa, FL
Joined November 2012
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Jeff Berardelli retweeted
A man in Mexico risks his life to save someone, then casually goes back to work
2 years ago tonight #Hurricane #Helene was wreaking havoc. It was 2X the average size of a storm in the Gulf and that’s one reason why it was so impactful.
But tonight it couldn’t be nicer. I’m enjoying the break! Bet you are too.
Two years ago today #Helene devastated #Florida and the Southern Appalachians, especially western #NorthCarolina near #Asheville. Here’s are the reasons it became a biblical event. Days before Helene’s landfall, what we call a predecessor rain event saturated the ground. Then the storm was captured by an upper level low and slammed into the mountains, squeezing all the moisture out. This whole process made the #flood that much worse, with tremendous run off cascading down hills. Water overrunning towns and sweeping homes away. Lives changed forever. 💔
Two years ago today, Hurricane Helene changed Tampa Bay.
Helene’s center passed more than 100 miles offshore, yet its enormous wind field pushed big water into Tampa Bay and shattered 100 year storm surge records in the area.
For many families, the flooding was unlike anything they had experienced before.
Our TV station was surrounded. The only way out was through chest deep water and some creative maneuvers.
Where were you when Helene came through? Did your house flood?
#hurricane #HELENE
Helene’s 2-year anniversary is this weekend. Despite the center staying 100 miles west of Tampa Bay, the area had 5-8 feet of surge - the worst in 100 years. Up to 15 feet of surge in Big Bend!
Arguably the worst impacts were in the Southern Appalachian mountains of NC, GA, TN, SC where some towns were virtually wiped off the map by 3 feet of rain and flood water cascading down mountainsides. It was devastating and some of us are still picking up the pieces all this time later. #Hurricane #HELENE
Like a rocket ship.
Thanks, El Niño
Wow, just wow. The 2026 Pacific hurricane season east of the IDL is now ranked #2 & not far from surpassing 1992. Now I want to be clear that this does not mean we will surpass 300 ACE points, but the fact is that we might pass 1992 in ACE points at this rate on a given day due to 3 hurricanes churning at the same time, with 2 of them now being major. With Nolo forecasted to become a major in a few days, it would not shock me if we get to 300 ACE in the next week or two.
Fun fact: We have been accumulating around 10-15 ACE points per day since September 21st.
Running the calculations shows that we should reach 300 ACE in about 8-12 days (October 2-6) and break the all-time record by October 10th due to a 90% AOI in the EPAC that looks to become a hurricane in the next 5-8 days.
Coral scientist @BillPrecht :
Most of the loss of coral worldwide is due to climate change. Climate change is the existential threat to coral:
youtu.be/sZBeEeV8P_g?is=MbG9…
#Polo is putting on a show right now. A 180-mph storm, and look at all that lightning near the core! It just keeps trying to get stronger.
3rd time it’s been a Cat 5 in its life cycle.
Worth a look if you are concerned about the planet. Short film…
youtu.be/IXRVD7ZqncQ?is=zwki…
I’ll link to @burgwx thoughts on a “tropical transition”. You’ll see the GRAF model below is trying to do what he describes. I think - and he substantiates the thought process - that the process of tropical transition is not as fast/ simple as the models are trying to depict here. In my past experience with the GRAF it typically deepens too fast.
nitter.cf/burgwx/status/21032908…
I can’t get over tonight’s hi -res GRAF model. It’s wild.
I think it’s overdone towards the end. The GRAF can sometimes spin things up way too fast! But it’s worth noting that it was initially onto something yesterday and the other models have followed suit.
It seems to be trying to transition this tropical, like the Rapid Refresh. I just don’t see how that can happen… It is clearly supported by a cold core upper low… although it - and other hi-res models are certainly trying for sub-tropical. I think that’s possible if it has enough time. Anyway, to spare everyone’s sanity I am stopping this animation Sunday AM as I think that’s where it gets way overdone. But it’s clear that we should we ready for #hurricane force wind gusts in case this thing sling shots into the coast. It may. The biggest impact will still be coastal flooding. No need for worry, just listen to local officials to stay safe and out of flood waters. Better safe, than sorry. #Noreaster
I can’t get over tonight’s hi -res GRAF model. It’s wild.
I think it’s overdone towards the end. The GRAF can sometimes spin things up way too fast! But it’s worth noting that it was initially onto something yesterday and the other models have followed suit.
It seems to be trying to transition this tropical, like the Rapid Refresh. I just don’t see how that can happen… It is clearly supported by a cold core upper low… although it - and other hi-res models are certainly trying for sub-tropical. I think that’s possible if it has enough time. Anyway, to spare everyone’s sanity I am stopping this animation Sunday AM as I think that’s where it gets way overdone. But it’s clear that we should we ready for #hurricane force wind gusts in case this thing sling shots into the coast. It may. The biggest impact will still be coastal flooding. No need for worry, just listen to local officials to stay safe and out of flood waters. Better safe, than sorry. #Noreaster
🌀 Supercharged Pacific, Super Slow Atlantic! 🌀
It’s truly night and day in the Atlantic vs the Pacific, with Atlantic Cyclone Energy at a record low, while the Pacific is vying for a record high! ACE is the accumulated cyclone energy when combining all the storm’s intensity and longevity in each basin. It’s never been lower in the Atlantic, 93% below normal. There has not even been 1 hurricane, a feat not seen in 100+ years!
This dichotomy is due to the Super El Niño with hot Pacific waters fueling super storms, but also sending strong wind shear eastward, shutting down the Atlantic. The extra strength in some of these Pacific storms is also a testament to how much excess subsurface heat is available from long term climate warming.
#elnino #hurricane
‼️ Major Coastal Flood Threat Mid-Atlantic & Northeast 🌊
That’s due to Hurricane force wind gusts offshore, waves 30ft plus, on top of a Full Moon high tide cycle. Timing is not great. If you live in a low-lying area, take the necessary precautions to protect yourself and your valuables on floor - lift them up/ move them higher.
Pictured here are our regional models (gust forecast) - they generally perform better than the global Euro and GFS on these type systems. They show a peak intensity of 980-990mb (ish) and #hurricane force gusts over the ocean. These strongest gusts will remain offshore, with some coastal gusts peaking near 65-70 mph. But the biggest impact will be major coastal flooding due to prolonged onshore wind and a full moon this weekend!
However as is typical, the devil is in the details and that we are still ironing out. #noreaster
