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Australia Melbourne
Joined September 2011
$TSM TSMC Q3 FY26: C.C. Wei: "We have no intention to leave food on the table for others, and we want to capture every piece of business possible." • Revenue +41% Y/Y to $46.7B ($1.0B beat). • HPC 68% of revenue (+11pp Y/Y). • EPADR $4.60 ($0.09 beat). FY26 outlook: • Capex ~$62B (unchanged). • Revenue +44% Y/Y (+40% Y/Y prior).
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Our CTA positioning indicator for US Treasuries reached a record low ahead of the rally.
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Tech vs Defensives: the biggest valuation gap since 2000. @FortuneOptions I ran the numbers on when defensives actually beat tech, using XLK against an equal-weight XLP/XLU/XLV basket since 1999. Three charts. 🧵
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What is happening between copper and silver is remarkable. Copper’s resilience while other metals sell off is too important to ignore. There is plenty of skepticism around metals right now, and I think this is a very important window of opportunity. tavicosta.substack.com/p/sil…
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💸 September US CPI +3.74% YoY The chart shows the weight of the three main CPI categories and their respective sub-groups on the left. On the right, you can see how each item contributes to the overall index YoY. Read more here 👉🏼 dualityresearch.substack.com…
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The new all-time high on the S&P 500 last week came on a day in which new lows exceeded new highs. That combination hasn't happened often in the past and when it has it usually signals an uptick in volatility and weakness in the index - not a sudden turn around in breadth.
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$JPM JPMorganChase Q3 FY26. • Net revenue +8% Y/Y to $50.9B ($0.3B miss) • Net income +6% Y/Y to $15.3B • Equities trading +49% vs. fixed income -4% • Asset & Wealth AUM +13% Y/Y to $5.2T • FY26 NII guide raised by $0.7B to ~$106.2B
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ETF Prints Today via @VolumeLeaders $QQQ $SPY $MUB
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CPI tomorrow, and the S&P 500 is down today. We've seen this script before. $SPX fell the day before CPI but rallied on release day in each of the last 3 cases. In fact, SPX was positive on CPI day in 9 of 12 cases when prior day was negative. Another green day tomorrow?
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fxevolution retweeted
bitcoin:native has bounced off the ETF cost basis. Price spent most of this year below that level, and the May rally stalled right under it. It has now held twice as support around $81.5k. Below it, the next major level is the True Market Mean at $77.5k.
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What an insane chart… I mean…. LOOK AT THIS???
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fxevolution retweeted
Barchart
@BarchartOct 12
Single Stock Option Volume is nearing its highest level in history, only behind the 2021 Meme Mania 🚨 🚨
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fxevolution retweeted
Buybacks in KOSPI are gone. Was an important source of support throughout the rally.
KOSPI $EWY Sitting right at the 200-Day Moving Average.
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The S&P 500 bull market officially turns 4 today! $SPX has delivered a 21.6% annualized return, the second highest among bull markets lasting 4+ years. SPX has also seen only eight pullbacks of 5%+ and two of 10%+. Looking at prior history, this is not uncommon.
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fxevolution retweeted
$KORU (3x South Korea) - We have a new #1 trade as price revisits the #2 trade from July. volumeleaders.com/register
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fxevolution retweeted
Gold bulls — this is your moment...
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Average return for small caps after 4 negative weeks in row? 👀 $IWM @fxevolution
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fxevolution retweeted
Call center jobs grew ~4% annually for 15 years Now they’re shrinking 4% annually Charts of the Week: a16z.news/p/this-week-in-cha…
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JPMORGAN, on oil: “October is beginning to look a lot like April. .. The problem is not simply how many tankers are available, but how efficiently they can be used. .. If freight costs rise beyond what refiners can economically absorb, refinery runs .. will eventually decline.”
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Is this the most important question for October? Who follows who between oil and yields? @fxevolution
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