Judgment and decision-making. National security. Officer @usairforce. PhD from @Harvard @Kennedy_School. Views are my own.
Joined January 2014
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Brad DeWees retweeted
This sounds so true but I'll wager it’s another armchair-psychology hypothesis that bites the dust. A key lesson of the replication crisis is that psychology is really hard. Most plausible hunches lead to effect sizes of virtually zero.
The mental habits formed by reading fiction can prepare policymakers to respond empathetically. warontherocks.com/2020/04/to…
I would tell students that the occasional lean-back, head-tilt, and eyebrow-raise was worth at least half a letter grade. Even then it was a rare occurrence.
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A coherent agenda for educating national security decision makers on how to use (and not use) AI, among other things...
Nice work @mchorowitz and @Lauren_A_Kahn
warontherocks.com/2020/01/th…
The military is revolutionizing how it connects and directs people in war.
Goal = command structure that decides an order of magnitude faster than it decides today.
Here my coauthors & I discuss how to build that future: Bottom up, not (just) top down.
warontherocks.com/2020/01/bu…
Brad DeWees retweeted
“In the context of war, AI should focus on not just the application of force, but the effects of that force on an adversary’s judgment.” A really interesting Sunday #PME read from @WarOnTheRocks and @b_dewees on cognitive effects and #AI. ow.ly/aaak30pF0su
This piece argues for a paradigm shift in how the military measures effectiveness — from physical effects to cognitive effects. AI can help, but the onus is mostly on the military. It needs to change how it thinks about and collects data.
Measuring War: Cognitive Effects in the Age of AI | @b_dewees @WarOnTheRocks realcleardefense.com/2019/10…
Brad DeWees retweeted
Audio from @Remote_Warfare conference now available. In "Shattering the Distance Paradigm," I talk about how how @usairforce remotely piloted aircraft should change the way we think about distance in war: It's only 13 minutes long, but I talk really fast! oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/e…
Brilliant piece by @arzandc on the India-Pakistan crisis... a history of the region and a primer on the psychology of IR all rolled into one. Love the point that escalation can be costly long-term even if it works out in the short-run. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/2019/03/ba…
Brad DeWees retweeted
The Right Way to Use the Wisdom of Crowds: @b_dewees & Julia A. Minson via @HarvardBiz buff.ly/2CqhvE6 #research #wisdomofcrowds
An extremely thoughtful take on how to think about Civil War monuments in the South. Do the monuments honor Confederate leadership or the human suffering that affected regular soldiers/families? (keep the latter) hnn.us/article/170736 @MNelsonatRhodes
The "wisdom of crowds" comes with a social catch -- each of us generating our own estimates leads us to think less of others. Julia Minson & I describe this (and how to avoid the costs) in @HarvardBiz today. hbr.org/2018/12/the-right-wa…
Brad DeWees retweeted
When is grit just sunk-cost bias dressed up as determination? hbr.org/2018/09/when-to-stic…
Brad DeWees retweeted
The Office of Evaluation Sciences' is hosting an event on how to make the government work better through testing and learning on Nov. 7 at the GSA - Register here to attend! oes.gsa.gov/events/
Movement of families was viewed as a reliable signaling mechanism btwn U.S. and N Korea.
The poli scientist in me finds that fascinating -- moving the pack 'n play is pretty cheap. The dad in me is terrified at the thought, which might be why it works)!
politico.com/story/2018/09/1…
Brad DeWees retweeted
Yesterday we published new working paper and geo-coded dataset of Chinese foreign aid projects. Would love others to use these data in research, teaching, visualizations, or to inform public/policy discourse. Threaded wrap up starting with short piece in Washington Post. Others?
Brad DeWees retweeted
An open letter & invitation to Col "Ned Stark:" Join my team & help us re-exam our officer promotion system -- as leaders, when we stop accepting criticism & feedback, we run the risk of distancing ourselves from the #Airmen we're privileged to lead. warontherocks.com/2018/08/th…
Brad DeWees retweeted
I’ve tried to quantify a lot of things many thought unquantifiable. But I surrender to this gem of a gist by a gem of a man. It couldn’t be more concise, compelling and true, without compromising one of the three
Brad DeWees retweeted
I never miss a chance to learn from @KoriSchake about civ-mil issues. The McRaven letter is a key departure from norms and her analysis is, as always, on point.
McRaven's condemnation went well beyond the strictures of denying a former CIA director continued access to classified information. @KoriSchake on civ mil and more
warontherocks.com/2018/08/mc…
This dichotomy — military vs. innovative minds — is of course an illustration, but I think a worthwhile one for thinking about how to balance naturally opposing forces w/in an organization like the DoD. Thanks to @Strategy_Bridge for generating the discussion this week.
While the military mind is conservative the innovative mind is open to experimentation with new ideas.
@b_dewees
#BridgeArchive
thestrategybridge.org/the-br…
