Event Horizon Strategies, Former @newrepublic @SenateForeign @ForeignPolicy @HarvardHBS.
Washington, DC
Joined October 2009
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I am enormously excited to announce that I will be writing a book on the history of decision-making for Simon & Schuster!
Dr. Peter Scoblic retweeted
The U.S. is facing a “new nuclear age.” How might we think differently about nuclear weapons to better prepare for tomorrow?
In a new report, @NewAmericaISP's @peterscoblic explores and challenges expectations of future nuclear dangers.
🔗 bit.ly/3QyHaiU
“we are finite, limited creatures living in a world of constraints and stubborn reality.” theatlantic.com/family/archi…
I may be biased since Carl has supported my work, but I thought this interview with @MakingSenseHQ was great. It's hard to talk about everything from Los Alamos to Ukraine and actually say anything valuable-but he did. I strongly recommend a listen.
It was a pleasure to talk to @MakingSenseHQ about the ongoing threat of #nuclear war.
We’re in a uniquely dangerous time, and it’s more important than ever that we try to tackle these risks.
samharris.org/podcasts/makin…
Sometimes headlines do not refer to the thing you think they're referring to...
wwd.com/accessories-news/eye…
Dr. Peter Scoblic retweeted
Colossal team effort, led by Ezra Karger, to run the first Hybrid Persuasion-Forecasting Tournament:
forecastingresearch.org/s/XP…
Many follow-up questions but a big one is: why was it so hard for AI experts to persuade superforecasters to move their skeptical priors on long-run AI experts?
A nice piece from @arthurb making the case for humility. Information is not knowledge, let alone wisdom. theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv…
Dr. Peter Scoblic retweeted
Are you interested in shaping the future of biosecurity? The 2023 Next Generation for Biosecurity Competition is searching for creative policy proposals that promote biosecurity in emerging bioeconomies. Join the competition and be part of the solution! bit.ly/3CPv8v4
This is an immensely depressing move from an institution dedicated to exploration and explanation of the natural and cultural worlds, at the very moment when we need more of both. washingtonpost.com/media/202…
A wonderful/terrible example of vague verbiage. Any guesses as to what probability Powell actually has in mind? (cc: @PTetlock @mjmauboussin)
What a wonderful concept. And a wonderful piece.
What a wonderful post by @rifish and @AlexandraBalwit on the best places to experience "deep time." longviewer.substack.com/p/wh…
I cannot echo this strongly enough. @AmyCEdmondson's work on psychological safety is one of the most important concepts I've ever encountered--it changed the way I look at leaders, teams, and organizations--and her new book on learning from failure is simply spectacular.
Here's the forthcoming @AmyCEdmondson book @rgmcgrath and I are so enthusiastic about. I read an advance copy. Its the best book ever written on learning from failure, by the researcher who taught millions of us about the power of psychological safety.
amazon.com/dp/1982195061?tag…
A really nice example of the potential of qual-quant synthesis and the need for more of what I call "statistically savvy storytellers." @metaculus
How does creativity enhance forecasting?
We continue our 'Shared Vision' series with an essay by Metaculus Pro Forecaster Jared Leibowich. Read how he incorporates creative writing into his forecasts on the future of AI rights here: metaculus.com/notebooks/1750…
When wildly different people express similar views, it's worth sitting up and taking notice. Case in point:
@jockowillink: "Discipline equals freedom" and...
Gustave Flaubert: "Be regular and orderly in your life, so that you may be violent and original in your work."
Dr. Peter Scoblic retweeted
when you think about it, if you are NOT admitting you have something to learn, it cant be the case that you know everything... so it might simply be a case of low-awareness... #BeADon'tKnower to build psychological safety and strong relationships
It's good to see the @AWMFoundtn using foresight to tackle a subject that is too often taboo in DC. andrewwmarshallfoundation.or…
Totally agree. Highly contingent moments in history make our future seem almost fickle. Question: Does this imply greater agency or greater vulnerability to randomness?
Great piece by Rose McDermott, @reidpauly and Paul Slovic: "[P]eople generally struggle to weigh conflicting risks and benefits—including those involving nuclear weapons. Faced with complexity, we simplify, narrowing our focus until a clear choice emerges."foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/p…
