There are two kinds of people. Those who are humble and those who are about to be.
Noida
Joined June 2021
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Unknown Market Wizards retweeted
Dhanteras trivia: People used to worship lord Dhanvantari (the God of well-being) on 13th day of Kartik month as per lunar cycle. The day is called trayodashi.
Unknown Market Wizards retweeted
How can democrats slow down AI progress unilaterally by slowing build out of data centres- what about China?
Do they cede their number 1 rank to China in this field?
You cannot put the genie back in the bottle.
Unknown Market Wizards retweeted
One week of bounce, and entire narrative on IT Service companies have changed
Meanwhile, these are the QoQ earnings print of top 7 IT Service companies
(this is after many inorganic acquisitions in last several qtrs)
Are they oversold? Yes
Are they cheap? Yes
Can they grow at high rates this year? No
Unknown Market Wizards retweeted
You can now listen to live Concalls directly from Screener. Just click and join, no need to dial any number.
This one was really fun to develop as we didn’t know the iPBX in our office was capable of doing this.
Unknown Market Wizards retweeted
“Most textbooks advise asset liability match so your assets and liabilities have to match but money is made by doing an asset liability mismatch.”
That was August 2017, the year the best-known housing finance stocks nearly doubled. They went on to fall 92% from their peak.
By the time everyone is talking about a theme, most of the money has been made. We went back over the sixteen that led the Indian market between 2015 and 2023, and looked at what happened if you bought each one once it was popular. For a year or so, it worked.
Three years in, 13 of the 16 had lagged the NSE500, and the typical theme had fallen 40% from its peak along the way. We’ve pitched a few of these names at the wrong time ourselves. The deck ends with five questions we ask before buying into a hot theme. The one for this platform: would we invest in this theme if it was not popular on X?
The full deck is accessible in .pdf format here: docsend.com/view/g3vkigu8v8i…
Unknown Market Wizards retweeted
All Transcript Editions
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Latest
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Three Foundations Editions:
The Chief Problem
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Valuations Matter
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Narratives Follow Prices
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Unknown Market Wizards retweeted
PB Fintech
Now down 30% in today's trade
Biggest single day fall in their trading history
Co has lost ~20000 Cr in market cap in just one session
Info Edge owns 6.5% stake in Co, lost 1700 Cr on their investment in a day. Their holding now is worth 3960 Cr vs 5660 Cr yesterday
#Throwback to their launch campaign which was against misselling of insurance products
Unknown Market Wizards retweeted
The real purpose of wealth is to have the calm to live your life your way. It's to have the freedom to slow down. To spend your days doing things that you actually care about. That’s what money is really for. Not to impress strangers. Or to collect expensive distractions. But to own your time. To have a quiet breakfast without checking emails. Long dinners without looking at the clock. Conversations without feeling rushed. A calm weekend without thinking about the spreadsheet you need to turn in on Tuesday. Time to read. To think. To explore your interests. That’s real wealth. Everything else is noise.
Unknown Market Wizards retweeted
Usha Martin -
In last 4 years, delivered ~8% sales cagr and ~16% ebitda cagr. 65% domestic market share. 80% is replacement demand so a decent annuity like visibility. Long qualification cycles (3-5 years) create entry barriers and customer stickiness.
FY22 to Q1 FY27:
VAP (wire rope) went from 61% to 73% of sales
EBITDA/tonne went from Rs 19600 to Rs 40600
(Wire rope sells ~3x plain wire, Hoshiarpur wire line cut 48kt to 23kt)
Moved UK production to India, saved 70 Cr (~Rs 3400 EBITDA/ton)
New capacities-
Elevator rope 6000t, commissioning from Oct 2026
Plasticated LRPC 6000t, FY27 target is 3500-4000t
(realisation is ~Rs 126000/t vs ~Rs 64000/t for plain LRPC)
New capacities sell at 2-3x vs the displaced ones.
Mgmt guides FY27 at 10-12% volume, 15% value, 20-21% margins. Volume has been flat at 4-5% for 2 years, Q1FY27 rope volumes actually fell. 10-12% volume growth seems unlikely without Middle East recovery.
Model 5% volume growth YoY-
Volume ~207kt to ~217 kt
Ebitda/t ~34.1k to ~38k
Ebitda 705 Cr to ~825 Cr
17% ebitda growth on 5% volume.
Unknown Market Wizards retweeted
Group EBITDA margins of global MIM (metal injection moulding) peers:
Indo-MIM ~25% (MIM share ~ 59%)
Jiangsu Gian ~15% (MIM share ~ 56%)
GKN Powder Metallurgy ~9% (MIM share ~ 10%)
Roughly half of Indo-MIM revenue comes from defence, medical and aerospace whereas for Chinese and German peers, primary end markets are consumer electronics and automotive respectively. The latter are multi-sourced markets where supplier is generally a price taker. Chinese peer's margins have contracted substantially while revenue grew 35% last year.
Another variable is manufacturing cost. Statutory minimum monthly wages in India are ~$55 vs $268 in China. GKN operates at a cost base (MIM plant in Germany) which is incomparable.
Unknown Market Wizards retweeted
Unnecessary controversy over GDP calculations. A response from my EAC collegue @kantisoumya
Unknown Market Wizards retweeted
Someone or other will be making money faster than you.
Learn to enjoy the sport. It's a single player game where we can collaborate and coordinate with good people and make lasting friendships in this sport.
No point in getting envious, & disturbing your own peace of mind.
You can win, and so can I-that's the beauty of investing.
Some investors today have more than enough food on their own table, yet they remain strangely preoccupied with what others are having.
Your portfolio is doing fine. Your businesses are compounding. Your thesis is playing out.
And yet… your eyes keep drifting to the next table.
“What did he order?”
“How much is he making?”
“Why didn’t I buy that?”
This is one of the quietest ways investors lose their peace and sometimes their discipline.
There is always another table with a more expensive meal.
Learn to enjoy what’s on yours.
Unknown Market Wizards retweeted
13th Bullet Proof Seminar 2026, by TN Investors Association
Speaker 1: S Naren of @ICICIPruMF
Theory vs Practice in Investing.
I'm used to giving certain valuations to certain companies and things are working differently, most of my colleagues think of me as a nagging mother in law. But it's important for me to do this nagging mother in law job, it keeps things in check and will eventually work. – at Chennai, India
Unknown Market Wizards retweeted
Asian Energy Services-
CMP ~370 Rs
Post merger shares ~9.11 Cr
Mcap one is paying ~3370 Cr
Standalone services business:
FY26 revenue ~492 Cr
Mgt guides for 30-40% growth in FY27 with 17-18% margin -> FY27e standalone EBITDA~ 113 Cr
Kuiper:
FY27 guidance $60-70 mn, normalized margin ~8% ->
FY27e EBITDA~ 30 Cr (Q1 margins ~4%, FY26 margins ~5.7%)
Oilmax:
Oilmax valued at 2582 Cr including AESL stake worth 1009 Cr
SOTP:
Services business at 15x ~1700 Cr
Kuiper at 10x ~300
Oilmax oil/gas/mineral asset ~1550 Cr
Total Value ~3550 Cr
Expected fair value/share ~390 Rs
Oilmax blocks are not listed so a haircut is justified. At 10% haircut, FV is ~375 Rs, at 20%, FV is ~357 Rs
Disc: Haven't mentioned negatives. DYODD
Unknown Market Wizards retweeted
Unknown Market Wizards retweeted
"You really want me to pay 25x earnings?"
Interarch Buildings vs Shivalik Bimetal -
Both businesses operate in completely different sectors, are at different scale of operations but roughly at similar market caps currently. Both make roughly similar ROIC. Both have genuine tailwinds. One has infra capex, manufacturing and e-com warehousing boom while the other has EV electrification, smart meter rollout, and global grid modernisation tailwind.
But...one operates in an extremely competitive industry that needs constant growth capex and still one steel upcycle can knock their margins out cold, while the other is a near monopoly with proprietary process technology and an improving global market share.
Porter's five forces -
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