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Solid De-rating in Bajaj Finance!
Stock has gone through a massive valuation reset over the last 5 years
P/B has compressed from ~12x in 2021 to just ~4.8x currently (🔻60%)
Stock has delivered ~4% CAGR over the last 5 years
Company is now generating almost an entire year's profit from 5 years ago in just a single quarter
And for those who say valuations don't matter, beware of such thinking
Bajaj Finance Q2FY27 - Key Management Insights
Management has now raised FY27 AUM growth expectation to 26-27%🔥, while maintaining its long term 23-25% growth framework
- AUM grew ~26.5% YoY to ~5.85 L Cr
- PAT +29% to 6,367 Cr
ROA remained healthy at 4.6% & ROE at 20.6%
Segmental growth
- Urban Consumer Finance AUM +43%
- Rural Consumer Finance +63%
- MFI +54% on a low base
- CV & Tractor Finance +89% on a low base
- Most other businesses continued to grow in the 20-30% range
- MSME growth was only ~3%, but management expects it to return to double digit growth during H2
Credit costs are improving meaningfully. Loan losses to average AUM declined to 1.56% from 1.88% YoY
"Management expects FY27 to potentially be among its lowest credit cost years in the past 4 years"
Margins will face some pressure from rising interest rates. Management expects further rate increases & some additional NIM compression beyond its original FY27 guidance of 10-15 bps
A major capital raise is aimed at supporting the next growth cycle. It plans to raise 17,500 Cr through QIP & preferential warrants.
Longer term AUM ambition ~11 L Cr by FY30
CDMO valuations have come a long way from the deep pessimism of 2022-23
Most leading CDMO names are trading at 40x EV/EBITDA
Deep pessimism often creates the best entry points because expectations are low & valuations provide a margin of safety
Laurus Labs - Almost Priced to Perfection?
Nuvama has initiated coverage with a BUY rating & target price of 2,520, expecting a massive expansion in its CDMO business
FY26-29E
- REV CAGR: 23%
- EBITDA CAGR: 35%
- PAT CAGR: 45%
EBITDA margins expected to reach ~35%
CDMO revenue expected to grow 3.4x to 7,160 Cr, contributing over 50% of total REV
The growth opportunity is undoubtedly significant, particularly in CDMO & peptides
Stock is already trading at ~25x FY29E EV/EBITDA & ~41x FY29E P/E
At such valuations, execution needs to be near flawless.
Entire PSU financing theme has taken a brutal beating
It used to be very popular in 2024💀
Drawdowns from ATH⬇️
Colgate Palmolive - Down 55% From Its ATH!
Look at some of its financial metrics:
ROCE at a whopping 121%
Negative working capital of ~15% of sales
Generated ~1,800 Cr in cash during FY26
Returned ~10,000 Cr to shareholders over the last 10 years
EBITDA margins ~500 bps higher than its nearest competitor
Excellent business economics, strong cash flows & exceptional capital efficiency!
Despite all these impressive metrics, the company's 5/10 year REV CAGR stands at a mere ~5%
Indonesian Stock Markets Are Literally Underwater Now! 💀
Almost half of the marketcap has been wiped out in 10 months
Forget about any relief in the upcoming Budget! 💀
LTCG & STT are back in focus ahead of Budget 2027 👀
FM has said the government will keenly hear views on LTCG, STT & broader capital market taxation as Budget preparations begin
Any reduction or restructuring of LTCG/STT could provide a major sentiment boost, especially after a period of heavy FII selling & weak market sentiment
That said, expectations should remain realistic
The probability of a major rollback still looks low at this stage, especially since STT was only recently increased
Now the real question is whether this hope eventually converts into policy
Fingers crossed 🤞👀
Market Breadth Has Deteriorated Significantly in the Last Few Weeks!
Many stocks have witnessed substantial corrections in last few days
1 in every 2 stocks is trading over 20% below its 52W high!
Median stock is currently 21.68% below its 52W high
Almost 1 in every 4 stocks is down over 50% from ATH
The median correction from ATH stands at 31.37%!
Absolutely Magnificent Pandal Themes This Year
The level of detailing & craftsmanship is truly impressive!
Durga Puja: Siliguri Pandal Hopping!
Visited the famous Central Colony Durga Puja Pandal, featuring nearly 100 KG of gold jewellery by Senco Gold, reportedly worth a whopping 140 Cr
We deliberately decided to visit in the evening to avoid the peak rush, but even then, the crowd was massive
Quite an interesting marketing strategy!
Tejas Bansal | Equity Insights Elite retweeted
A few bad sessions can completely change investor psychology
When markets are strong, investors wait for corrections to buy
When the correction finally comes, fear takes over & suddenly very few wants to touch the same businesses at much lower prices
In most cases, fundamentals have not changed as quickly as stock prices have
And that is exactly why such phases create some of the best opportunities
A lot of people are aggressively promoting International Investing through Mutual Funds/FoFs
But one thing that is rarely discussed enough is taxation
And this can materially change your actual returns
Sri Lotus Developers : Strong Pre-Sales growth Up 83%
Q2FY27 Performance:
- Pre-sales increased 83% YoY to 470 Cr
- REV increased 53% YoY to 269 Cr
- EBITDA grew 113% YoY to 107 Cr
- PAT increased 91% YoY to 89 Cr
Despite strong pre-sales growth, Q2 collections declined 44% YoY from 106 Cr to 60 Cr (collections to be monitored carefully in coming quarters)
FY27 Guidance:
- Pre-sales: 1,800-2,000 Cr
- REV growth: 55-60% YoY
- PAT growth: 55-60% YoY
So Management is effectively targeting ~56-73% pre-sales growth in FY27
H1FY27 Performance:
- Pre-sales increased 176% YoY to 879 Cr
- REV increased 69% YoY to 401 Cr
- PAT increased 86% YoY to 134 Cr
Company operates primarily in Mumbai's luxury & ultra-luxury real estate segment, with a strong focus on redevelopment & joint development projects
- 8 ongoing projects with estd GDV of 4,500-4,700 Cr
- 12 upcoming residential projects with estd GDV of 8,700-8,900 Cr
- 4 upcoming commercial/mixed use projects with estd GDV of 6,600-6,800 Cr
Management intends to complete the current ~20,000 Cr GDV portfolio over the next 4 to 4.5 years, with a project level surplus estd at ~9,500 Cr over the development cycle
Almost the entire upcoming project portfolio is being developed through redevelopment & joint development arrangements
Management is planning four new project launches in H2FY27 - Lotus Sky Plaza, Lotus Portofino, Lotus Odyssey & Lotus Aurelia
These projects have a combined estimated GDV of 3,500-4,000 Cr, providing visibility for future pre-sales growth
The stock has witnessed a meaningful recovery from its lows, as markets were already anticipating strong performance
Sri Lotus Developers is trading at premium valuations of nearly 6x Mcap/Pre-Sales, a significant premium compared to its peers, largely due to its strong execution track record & growth expectations
Several other real estate companies are available at around 1x Mcap/Pre-Sales, offering potential re-rating opportunities if they demonstrate similar execution capabilities & consistent growth
Kross ltd : Strong Q2FY27 Results
REV increased 80% YoY to 235 Cr
EBITDA grew 107% YoY to 31 Cr
PAT surged 144% YoY to 20 Cr
EBITDA margins expanded 175 bps YoY to 13.0%
Trailer Axles & Suspension contributed 49% of Q2 REV
Commercial Vehicle Components contributed 37%
Management highlighted strong demand from M&HCV OEMs, while trailer volumes exceeded Q4FY26 levels
Price revisions with most OEMs & Tier 1 customers have also been concluded, supporting profitability despite input cost pressures
Interestingly, the company is entering an important phase of capacity expansion
India's first axle beam extrusion plant has commenced commercial production, with utilisation already at ~60-65%
Current axle beam capacity stands at 7,500 units per month
Tipping Jack supplies have commenced, with installed capacity of 800 kits per month & further scale-up expected in H2FY27
The upcoming seamless tube facility involves planned investment of ~167 Cr & proposed capacity of 1.2 lakh tonnes
Management is targeting 15% REV contribution from the agriculture segment over the next two years, compared with 8.38% currently
Strong Outlook: Management expects Q3 & Q4 volumes to be stronger than Q2, with H2 historically delivering 10-15% higher volumes than H1






















