Weather Enthusiast | NOT a Meteorologist | Located in South-Central PA | Focus on Severe, Tropics, and Winter
Joined November 2024
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Weather Sphere retweeted
New this winter: NWS can include Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) wording for Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings. This will be reserved for storms where there is high confidence in a rare and extreme event. #NDwx
ALT Infographic: "This is a Particularly Dangerous Situation". Starting this winter, you might see these words on Blizzard Warnings or Ice Storm Warnings. This means that there is high confidence in a rare and extreme event that poses an exceptional threat due to its historic nature. During a Particularly Dangerous Situation, stay off the roads and exercise extreme caution.
Latest 60N Zonal Wind Forecast continues to show our very weak polar vortex heading into early November.
This may dislodge some cold air into the central/eastern US, but it's too early in the season to really get the crazy arctic blasts we've seen in past winters.
First flakes of the season falling across portions of the Midwest today. A heavy, wet snow with temps generally above freezing.
Weather Sphere retweeted
Unlike last year at this time, Euro weeklies keep Pacific split flow going into early December, keeping Canada very warm, and probably not warm enough for Lower 48. Powerful El Niño influences seen to continue.
a multi-day what now
Could Germany experience a multi-day Dunkelflaute period beginning October 29?
Today's 00Z AIFS-ENS and ECMWF forecasts indicate a more persistent low Dunkelflaute Risk Index (DRI) signal than GEFS.
The percentage of ensemble members forecasting at least 3 consecutive days below the historical 10th-percentile DRI threshold is:
• AIFS-ENS: 49%
• ECMWF: 37%
• GEFS: 13%
These percentages cover each model's forecast horizon and represent ensemble-member fractions, not calibrated event probabilities.
Explore the Point-in-Time Weather Forecast API: worldclimateservice.com/pit-…
#Dunkelflaute #EnergyMeteorology #Germany
Storm in the Bay of Bengal (named Arnab) is now likely rapidly intensifying as it closes in on India's eastern coast. May weaken just before landfall tomorrow, but with a core this small, anything is possible.
Weather Sphere retweeted
A look at the damage from Saturday's tornado in Santa Fe.
The tornado has been rated a high-end EF-1, with 110 mph winds. It traveled 1.4 miles, damaging 10 homes, power poles, and trees.
This was Santa Fe's first documented tornado in 55 years.
📸 PNM, City of Santa Fe #NMwx
This winter looks to repeat our pattern of warm, relatively snowless Decembers.
Might as well just make it an autumn month at this point 🗿
3 years ago, early in the morning...
Still crazy to think that we watched Otis go from 50mph to 165mph in a span of 24 hours.
The ridge of heat that just keeps on giving.
The Northeast, namely coastal regions, will escape much of the well above temps for now.
Substantial mountain snow and coastal rain will be coming to the PNW, northern Rockies, and Sierra Nevada this week. Hopefully a sign of things to come, as drought conditions have worsened in the area the past few months.
Still looking at a potentially historic tropical cyclone impacting eastern India early next week.
Models have backed off a bit in strength, but AI guidance continues to rapidly strengthen anything that forms.
A second cyclone may form just south of the first a couple days later.
