Sports Business and Financial News
Hyderabad, India
Joined March 2017
- Tweets5.7K
- Following850
- Followers3.1K
- Likes4.3K
I know most of you think I am day dreaming but Shilpa Medicare if all cards click can do 1 billion dollar sales in fy31
The US$ 1 Billion Growth Bridge
Based on the scaling parameters of their individual high-value assets and capacity expansions, the long-term consolidated top-line revenue bridge maps out visually into three distinct blocks:
[FY31/32 Consolidated Goal: US$ 1.0 Billion (+$8,400 Cr) Total Revenue]
│
├──► 1. Specialty CDMO Block: US$ 400 Million (Raichur Assets)
│ • Oxylanthanum Carbonate (OLC): Full commercial scale across US, EU, and Japan.
│ • Mature Multi-Ton Peptides: Global generic GLP-1 bulk supply at absolute peak.
│ • NCE Pipeline Conversions: At least 3–5 novel molecules hitting steady commercial scale.
│
├──► 2. Biologics & Biosimilars: US$ 300 Million (Dharwad Assets)
│ • Nivolumab Biosimilar: Scaled global export supply to Orion Corporation.
│ • Recombinant Human Albumin: High-volume commercial blood product & excipient sales.
│ • Emerging Modalities: Commercial-stage Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs).
│
└──► 3. Core Generic Portfolio: US$ 300 Million (API + Complex Formulations)
• Oncology API Dominance: Expanded global market share via low-cost leadership.
• Differentiated Formulations: Global rollouts of patches (Rotigotine) and injectables.
Three Core Triggers to Unlock the Billion-Dollar Mark
For the company to push past the upper limits of our previous projections and capture the extra $150–200 million needed to hit a full billion, three absolute execution triggers must materialize:
1Global Blockbuster Scaling for OLC: The Oxylanthanum Carbonate (OLC) contract cannot remain a localized U.S. product. Unicycive and its regional out-licensing partners must successfully capture a combined 12% to 15% market share across the U.S., Europe, and Japan. Because Shilpa is the exclusive master manufacturer, this peak global penetration is the single largest lever to supercharge the CDMO column past the $400 million mark.
2Capturing the Global GLP-1 Shortage Wave: Shilpa's recent US$ 50 million capital commitment to scale up peptide blocks at Raichur must hit immediate, high-yield utilization. By 2030, a massive wave of global patents for second-generation weight loss and diabetes blockbusters (like Semaglutide) will expire. Shilpa must leverage its multi-ton solid-phase peptide synthesis (SPPS) capacity to become one of the primary global contract manufacturers supplying these complex generic blockbusters.
3Flawless Biologics Out-Licensing Execution: The clone-to-vial campus at Dharwad must maintain an unblemished regulatory compliance record with the USFDA and EMA. If their major biosimilars—anchored by the Nivolumab partnership with Orion—face zero regulatory approval delays or clinical holds between FY28 and FY30, the exponential manufacturing ramp-up will cleanly deliver the projected $300 million biologics baseline.
What This Means for Shareholders (The Margin Shift)
Achieving US$ 1 Billion in sales fundamentally changes Shilpa's underlying profitability.
Because the high-growth blocks (Specialty CDMO and Biologics) carry vastly superior pricing power compared to the legacy generic API business, Shilpa's consolidated operating profit (EBITDA) margins are modeled to expand from their current ~30% baseline toward 38% to 40%
at peak utilization. This operational leverage means a billion-dollar top-line could translate into an annual EBITDA generation capacity of over ₹3,200+ crore by the turn of the decade.
#shilpa Medicare
#Fermenta - Vit D company -
Four companies which will be in my muhurat buy lists
A Indian api player whose capacity for an intermediate can do their current year revenue
A Indian cdmo player who has been struggling but in terms of capability and leadership can beat most Indian Veni players
A small electric ancillary players who would be a key beneficiary from US trade deal
A mining ancillary player
A 3000 cr mcap company has targeted the first half of calendar year 2028 (H1 CY28) for the launch of its pertuzumab biosimilar.
Because the molecule is currently in the early research and development phase, its timeline is paced behind the rest of the company's oncology biologics:
• Erythropoietin (EPO): The most advanced biologic, scheduled for domestic commercial sales by the end of CY27.
• Pembrolizumab & Nivolumab: Positioned slightly ahead of Pertuzumab, with targeted launches set for late CY27 to CY28.
• Pertuzumab: Placed at the end of the current pipeline tranche (H1 CY28) as the company expands its bioreactor capacity from 100 litres to over 500 litres to handle commercial volumes.
Global mkt size of all molecules put together is close to 40 billion dollars , In India less than 5 players have approvals and this small company is in that league
#guess my name
Happy Diwali
we will grow together retweeted
My two bits -
Removing LTCG only for FPI is unfair to domestic savers. It’s domestic investors who have saved Indian markets for last 10 years. It’s truly long term capital.
Moreover, It will also start round tripping and hawala like it used to happen earlier when people would send their money abroad thru unofficial channels and bring thru FPI route to save tax and operate markets.
I think it must be rationalised. Both STT and CG can’t exist. Remove CG and keep STT or other way around. If you keeping both, then give credit of STT as tax payment like TDS.
Also pl reduce complexities involved in set off of LTCG with ST capital losses. There are lot of unnecessary complications. Eg, Long term capital loss can’t be set off against Short term capital gain.. there are many more like this across FY carry forward etc.
@nsitharaman @FinMinIndia @PMOIndia @EconomicTimes @PMOIndia @SEBI_updates
Can anyone clarify when Shilpa Medicare says late stage molecules do they mean phase 3 or phase 4 -(and going though marketing authorisation )
shilpa medicare portfolio progress
I compared the August (1QFY27) and November (2QFY27 / 1HFY27) investor decks specifically for new portfolio additions and pipeline additions.
Major Portfolio Additions in November vs August
1. New FDF Pipeline Asset Added: Tadalafil Oral Film (SMLODF010)
This is the most significant new product addition visible in the November deck.
Not present in August deck.
Added in November:
Tadalafil Oral Film (SMLODF010)
First company to receive EU approval through hybrid route
Pan-European commercialization secured
Bioequivalence completed
First company to file US ANDA
US commercialization partner signed [shilpa november | PDF]
This is an important NDDS/ODF asset and suggests Shilpa is expanding beyond oncology and injectables into differentiated oral film products.
2. New Alzheimer's TDS Program Added: SMLTDP018
August deck showed only:
SMLTDP012 (Alzheimer's once-weekly patch) [shilpa august | PDF]
November deck adds:
SMLTDP018
Twice-weekly transdermal patch
Exhibit batches completed in 2QFY27
Pivotal study planned in 3QFY27 [shilpa november | PDF]
This appears to be a new transdermal platform candidateadded to the active pipeline.
3. Semaglutide Migrated from API Discussion into Full Product Pipeline
In August:
Mentioned primarily under API/Peptide section.
DMF filing planned. [shilpa august | PDF]
In November:
Dedicated product code:
SMLPFS020 Semaglutide
Fully backward integrated
Stability studies underway
Global partnering discussions
Highlighted as a standalone product opportunity
Global market opportunity USD 60bn+ [shilpa november | PDF]
Not technically a new molecule, but definitely elevated into a major commercial program.
Novel Biologics / NBE Additions
4. Entire New NBE / NCE Portfolio Slide Added
August deck only briefly mentioned:
mAbTree
Alveolus Bio
Gate2Brain
NXI/other partner references scattered through text. [shilpa august | PDF]
November introduces a completely new slide:
"From Lab to Market: Unlocking Value in NBE & NCE"
with detailed portfolio disclosure of:
Program
Partner
Type
PD-L2 Inhibitor
mAbTree
NBE
AB1000
Alveolus Bio
NBE
CORONIN-1
NXI Therapeutics
NCE
G2B-002
Gate2Brain
NCE
[shilpa november | PDF]
This is arguably the biggest strategic disclosure difference between the two decks.
5. CORONIN-1 (NXI Therapeutics) Explicitly Identified
In August:
No dedicated portfolio disclosure.
Not shown as monetizable asset pipeline. [shilpa august | PDF]
In November:
CORONIN-1 disclosed with:
Transplant rejection
GVHD
Autoimmune indications
~$9bn current market opportunity
Process development underway [shilpa november | PDF]
This is effectively a newly disclosed pipeline asset for investors.
6. AB1000 (Alveolus Bio) Given Dedicated Commercial Visibility
August:
Mentioned only as LBP development contract. [shilpa august | PDF]
November:
Full asset profile:
COPD
BPD
IPF
Bronchiectasis
~$22bn market opportunity
First-in-human trials expected FY27 [shilpa november | PDF]
Not new scientifically, but newly disclosed as part of value-creation pipeline.
CDMO Portfolio Expansion
7. New Biologics CDMO Portfolio Disclosure
August:
25+ small molecule programs.
3 development-clinical supply programs. [shilpa august | PDF]
November:
New details:
3 biologics Phase-I supply programs
3 additional biologics programs entering Phase-I in FY28
Working with 5 Big Pharma companies
Dedicated near-term CDMO value slide added [shilpa november | PDF]
This is a meaningful expansion in disclosed CDMO portfolio.
Biosimilar Portfolio
No New Biosimilar Added
Core portfolio remains same:
Adalimumab
Aflibercept
Nivolumab
Pembrolizumab
Daratumumab
Dupilumab
SBPL-1 ADC
in both decks. [shilpa august | PDF], [shilpa november | PDF]
However, November adds a milestone:
Pembrolizumab expected to enter human trials in 2HFY27. [shilpa november | PDF]
This is progress, not a new addition.
Bottom Line
Genuine New Portfolio Additions (August → November)
1.Tadalafil Oral Film (SMLODF010) ✅
2.SMLTDP018 Alzheimer's transdermal patch ✅
3.Semaglutide promoted into standalone commercial pipeline asset ✅
4.CORONIN-1 (NXI Therapeutics) explicitly disclosed ✅
5.AB1000 (Alveolus Bio) fully profiled ✅
6.Formal NBE/NCE portfolio framework introduced ✅
7.Expanded biologics CDMO portfolio disclosure (3+3 programs) ✅
Not New, Just Progress UpdatesNivolumab
Pembrolizumab
Aflibercept
Gate2Brain G2B-002
Recombinant Human Albumin
Rotigotine
Ondansetron ER
Abraxane
Xtandi
Abiraterone
ADC program
These were already present in August and mainly saw milestone progressionInvestor takeaway:The November deck shows that Shilpa is increasingly positioning itself not as just an API/formulations company but as a multi-platform innovator with an emerging NBE/NCE portfolio and broader NDDS platform, with the NBE/NCE disclosure being the biggest strategic change.
Nivolumab
Pembrolizumab
Aflibercept
Gate2Brain G2B-002
TAM for indian companies is huge : The global API and CDMO market continue to benefit from rising outsourcing, with 73% of novel drugs approval in 2025 involving outsourced API manufacturing
Some companies with scale are just Amazing
Senores pharma
fy24 revenue 190 cr
Fy27 q2 revenue 190 cr , so revenue was 4x in 3 years
Fy26 revenue 640 crores
Fy30 2000 cr absolute possibility
So at 600 cr pbt - can we see 15000 cr in fy30 , hoping for best
Why Steamhouse now sits at an interesting and can be a good compounding play for next 2-3 years . Steamhouse pioneered the community boiler system in India. We sell steam and nitrogen to industries like chemical, pharmaceuticals, textiles, plywood, food processing, tyre industries.By outsourcing their steam requirements to Steamhouse, these industries can now focus on their core manufacturing activities, operations, while we provide a reliable, efficient, and scalable steam solution.We believe our steam-as-a-service model represents a structural shift from traditional captive boiler ownership to outsourced steam solutions.Today, our business operates through three verticals: • Generation and distribution of steam, • Purchase and distribution of steam, • Generation Separation and distribution of Nitrogen.community boilers can achieve thermal efficiency of 80% to 83% compared with around 50 to 65% for the conventional captive boilers. Our USP is our knowledge of steam distribution for kilometers. We have established more than 60 kilometers of steam pipeline infrastructure across industrial clusters in Gujarat.s.We currently have four projects under execution at Jhagadia, Vapi, Nandesari, and AMC (Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation) Pirana, along with three projects planned through IPO proceeds at Ankleshwar, Panoli, and Dahej. Beyond Gujarat, we are also expanding our footprint .with a planned project at Tarapur
Steamhouse q2 : market gave a clear feedback that we didn’t like your numbers . Did it disappoint on volume was ahead of estimates - on ebidta per tonne was a disappointing . But the real story is something people are ignoring Fy27 currently looking at 90/ 120 metric tonnes capacity additions depending on Ahmedabad finalisation and another 60 tonnes in fy28
Based on this company confident on 25% volume growth in fy27 and 35% in fy28
Annual ebidta per tonne being guided at 1100 which currently stands at 900
Fy27 revenue could be potentially at 550 cr based in new capacitors and fy28 could be 650-700 cr based on 35% volume growth
Fy27 ebidta can be 110-120 cr and fy28 can be 180-200 cr
Time to short IT - honeymoon over - i mean 2% constant currency growth was celebrated as super growth
One of the ways to judge a small cap company is the quality of hires - I must give it to @SupriyaLife for the excellent from CFO who is a DRL veteran to now hiring such a senior COO from zydus and Cipla
I think we can visualise something big happening with company #supriya life sciences
One source pharma results tell you to trust management and be with good growing companies and not get I’ll acted share price reductions
I think this company deserves 3-4 year holding period to move into an integrated cdmo
Steris merger could be icing on the cake
I have a very simple logic too simple - if there a shortage of coal - and there is a company who through industrial makes steam - utilisation at 41% - won’t customers move - based on that logic i have been adding steamhouse
Thank you all for all good wishes and helping me reach 3k followers - hopefully we will collaborate together for good future
One company that has corrected 30% form top - and is a broader ecosystem play on ev , power , cell line and electronics ecosystem is Shivalik bimetals
Believe a 30% cage revenue growth is possible and fy28 basis looks an incredible value buy
Will share a detailed note as to how a US trade deal they could be biggest beneficiary
There have been too many stories on ADC capabilities going around , its time to unravel truth where each one stands .
ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) is essentially a guided missile for cancer therapy.
It has 3 components:
Antibody → finds cancer cells
Linker → connects the drug to the antibody
Payload → highly potent cytotoxic drug (often 100-1000x more potent than standard chemotherapy)
The antibody binds to a tumor cell, gets internalized, and releases the payload inside the cancer cell, reducing damage to healthy tissues. This targeted approach is why ADCs have become one of the hottest areas in oncology
Size of the ADC Opportunity (TAM)
There is variation across market-research firms, but most estimates place the ADC market around:
Year ADC Market2025 $12-19 billion 2030-2035 $32-90 billion
What the market is likely valuing
1.Near-term ADC revenue potential: Cohance > Shilpa > Anthem > Laurus
2. Platform quality / scientific depth: Anthem ≈ Cohance > Shilpa > Laurus
3.ADC optionality and rerating potential: Shilpa > Laurus > Cohance > Anthem
4. Execution visibility: Cohance and Anthem currently have the strongest visibility.
For an ADC-focused investor today, I'd classify:
Cohance = ADC execution story
Shilpa = ADC capacity-utilization story
Anthem = premium CRDMO with ADC upside
Laurus = long-duration ADC call option embedded in a broader CDMO business
@unseenvalue @carnelian_asset @EquityValueIn Your views will be very helpful