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earth
Joined August 2024
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My take on position sizing , very less spoken about when it comes to process building
Understanding this opens up lot more non linearity of gains
"We have a distribution regulation without consultation with distributors" - PB Fintech
It is really unfair sometimes to be doing business in India sometimes , and I dont think analysts price the regulatory risk , financials , Pharma , it could be anything , some snippets from the recent call , worth reading , even though I dont cover it in detail , but good time to start reading at least
Sharing an interesting perspective on why it is important that the reward must go to the customer , not any other party and how new lives addition is a must have that PB provides to the industry and that is what keeps the risk management going
Interesting reading
no reco , no positions , just reading
Pine Labs , POS devices Revenue Model breakdown and understanding the economics
source: Pine Labs , MOFSL , Razorpay
ValueEquity retweeted
Inflation as a theme has to be played , this time it is far stickier than most are expecting , across many core industries RM costs are very stiff and we are also now seeing commodities tightenining , hence the larger will see market share gains and inventory gains lasting, sugar also we are seeing very tight prices due to maharashtra droughts and ethanol as well , and this is across many major commodities where prices are very tight
3-4 months down the line this will be a theme , playing inflation as a theme is a must , there are many ways ...
PB Fintech Management adressing where the industry may head going forward and what is changing , the recent call had a lot about the industry structure , interesting read , even though dont cover the stock /sector but worth reading
Last 6 months the skill and the luck based investing have diffrentiated big time , themes based ideation has worked very very well and create a large positive divergence to the market, if you are in the right themes last 6 months have been nothing short of a bull run for us
People relying on index have suffered because of having strong opinions
Glad that we were able to capture this , as this is what helps us more in the tough cycle , more you gain in disorder the better of you will be
Lot of right decisions , themes and luck has helped us , hope you all have also captured some !
Pine Labs , product wise competitive positioning of merchant platforms, reading this one
source: motilal oswal
Inflation as a theme has to be played , this time it is far stickier than most are expecting , across many core industries RM costs are very stiff and we are also now seeing commodities tightenining , hence the larger will see market share gains and inventory gains lasting, sugar also we are seeing very tight prices due to maharashtra droughts and ethanol as well , and this is across many major commodities where prices are very tight
3-4 months down the line this will be a theme , playing inflation as a theme is a must , there are many ways ...
Sequent and Cohance , the one thing that keeps me always in the thinking is the Private Equity angle , Carlyle did the merger with Viyash to create larger EV to get a better exit multiple as M&A picks up in the third year of acquisition as they see that they will not get that IRR until they do a large merger , and their fund lifecycle is maybe 6-8 years, and in 4th year they saw no value been created , but now suddenly there is an illusion of value post merger
Advent in Cohance turning around is also good , but I am always mapping the fund cycle of Advent , it has already been 3 years , next 3 years they will look to sell as well , and they too will try to turn it around in the incentive to sell , know the facts but keep this angle open to judge the facts , sometimes this can work well as well , goal is to be aware
Hence fundamentally PE vs promoter is one debate where a good quality promoter always wins
Playing fund cycle ( Private Equity ) vs infinite game ( promoter) is where incentives for a promoter are much better , skin in the game is much longer , and incentive to take better decisions is always better
Good promoters create large value we have seen that play out where passion meets capability , Laurus , Sai to name a few where we have all been part of the value creation journey with the promoter , not just playing a fund cycle !
A month at the gym has been very rewarding , I know there are some beginner gains , but most of the gains are outside the gym , better sleep ,automatic control on bad eating and overall a more cleaner way of living
If you haven’t already , start it , slowly you won’t be able to stop it ..
Fitness is going to be crucial in your life to make sure you are in a position to take risks, never compromise on that
Just because you have done in depth analysis of a stock and industry , doesn't mean that it is a good company from a return profile point of view and you get attached to
I used to make this mistake too few years back , do not get attached to the thesis or think that the effort you put into a company has any correlation with the return profile of the stock , keep the process and expectations basket separate, build a process that cuts the ideas when need to be and brings them back when cycle turns , you are not owed any returns because you read a company well !
Deep value can remain deep value if there is no inflection point or trigger , just because a stock is cheap run by a good management cannot be the only reason to buy , the question is what is the future rate of change that leads this company to discover the value and unlock a newer earnings trajectory
What moves the needle? What induces incremental rate of change ?
focus on asking the right questions
ValueEquity retweeted
Every business model has a point of scale post which the model cannot handle more capital being deployed in it and that turns counter intuitive to the idea of re investment , very few think about this
Every sector and business model reaches a range top where new capital is being added for the sake of it and not for the same incremental returns , that is the point to pivot or exit , nothing in between
Every business model has a point of scale post which the model cannot handle more capital being deployed in it and that turns counter intuitive to the idea of re investment , very few think about this
Every sector and business model reaches a range top where new capital is being added for the sake of it and not for the same incremental returns , that is the point to pivot or exit , nothing in between
Aerospace , reposting this , if you want to understand the Indian market these are things you should read/watch
1) Aequs DRHP ( for the data only on latest trends ) 2)Dynamatic Annual reports ( last 3 years )+ AGM of last year Video is there on you tube
3) HAL Annual reports last 3 years and Bharat Shakti Youtube channel for on ground management Interviews of smaller co's
4) Ideaforge and Zen for smaller co's , read their investor presentations and product catalogues for capabilty mapping
5) Azad/PTC for their Deep industry capabilities in niche turbines and Titanium forging
6) Unimech to understand the MRO market plus tooling's hour business
7)@ishmohit1
video on their channel , lot of detail Valuing such lumpy business is a different thing , but these will give you good groundwork to start thinking about the sector in a broader and much more relevant context
Reading this much will give you good broader context on the industry , use this as a context builder so you can understand the developments in this space with more depth
Parag Milk , the slide that matters
Rare case where I like the business alot , but have mixed views on the management , only if some private equity guys are listening , please do something
disc: biased , no reco , no advice
Suven Life Sciences may be entering an inflection point zone that can reward decades of R&D , again it is a " big may" as many of their drugs in R&D are reaching the phase 3( 2/5 ) where if they are able to crack it , things will change big time , below I have done phase wise mapping of where we stand today , name of asset , TAM, Phase and mapping out earliest launches if successful
But again these are very difficult to predict and gauge , recently we saw wochkardt also come out with a phase 3 success and that changes the leap of the company post FY28 , question is can suven do the same ?
Masupirdine (SUVN-502) - Alzheimer's
Samelisant (SUVN-G3031) - Day time sleepiness /Narcolepsy , they are presenting the data soon at the global conference as well
These 2 are the main molecules that are entering the Phase-3 crucial stage where now if passed through can go to commercial Now these are typically binary bets which are very similar to investing in deep biotech startups , winner takes it all or looser has to fall , but this is worth seeing and tracking
Now what is also interesting is some very interesting accumulation has happened by some good names probably pre empting the success of this and sizing limited risk , Prashant Jain 3P investment mangers , Sandeep tandon from Quant and Sunil Singhania Again these are very uncertain investments and most of the outcome nature is binary in nature , but worth reading
Classic Biotech high risk high reward ideation , so to be treated that way , but worth tracking