Talking about Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, plus I Bonds and Treasurys in general, on the https://xitter.cf/t.co/eKll4hxO6k site, since March 2011.
Joined October 2013
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Tipswatch retweeted
Nearly two-thirds of builders said immigration enforcement is affecting their labor force, up from 23% in March and 13% a year ago, according to a September John Burns Research & Consulting survey.
“We’re almost dead in the water because our workforce is gone,” said Scott Brannock, president of Jacksonville-based Tidewater Homes and the Northeast Florida Builders Association.
“We have national builders who are missing projections, losing hundreds of thousands of dollars because they have slabs sitting on the ground and no one to frame.”
wsj.com/us-news/the-immigrat…
Tipswatch retweeted
Three things to take from today's inflation numbers: the level is too high, the trend isn't improving, and it's worse than forecasters thought. That's about as cheerful as a wet weekend. newsletter.platypuseconomics…
Tipswatch retweeted
This is a rough September inflation report.
-Biggest monthly jump since May
-Higher than expected inflation AND core inflation
-Core Inflation for the past 3 months is running at well over a 3% annualized pace...that's problematic
-Inflation (3.7%) totally wiping out wage gains (3%)
Yes, high gas and diesel prices are the major driver, but also big jumps in airfares, used car prices, recreation, medical and apparel. The energy shock is spreading.
Tipswatch retweeted
The most absurd number in CPI? According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 35% over the last 4 years...
Tipswatch retweeted
New from the New York Fed: "By February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 pp to goods price inflation, and without them goods prices would have fallen slightly."
About one quarter of every point in higher tariff rates shows up in consumer prices within one year.
• A 10% across-the-board tariff yields a 2.6% rise in consumer goods prices after one year.
• About two thirds of the increase comes from pricier imports, which get passed through quickly.
• Another third comes from U.S. made goods, as producers face higher input costs and less import competition. This takes longer, about 6-12 months, to filter through.
How Fast Do Tariffs Pass Through into Consumer Prices?
By Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein
nyfed.org/4j2HHcN
Tipswatch retweeted
The longest duration Treasury bond ETF is now down 67% from its peak in March 2020.
How is that possible?
The 30-Year Treasury yield has moved from an all-time low of 0.8% in March 2020 up to 5.6% today.
Long duration + Rising interest rates from all-time low levels = Pain
Tipswatch retweeted
“I don’t see this ending soon,” said Firrincieli. “Chaos increases prices.”
Plenty of chaos from the White House: war, restrictions on immigrants, and tariff threats are all raising transport costs now. wsj.com/business/inflation-c…
Tipswatch retweeted
In the week ending Sept. 21, average U.S. diesel prices per gallon rose by 24 cents, to $6.53. Average gas prices per gallon increased 16 cents, to $4.48 bit.ly/4hFhNuh
Tipswatch retweeted
The US Money Supply grew 5.7% over the last year, the biggest YoY increase since June 2022.
After a brief hiatus, money printing is back.
Tipswatch retweeted
We’ve lost 30% of our purchasing power in the last 6 years and somehow, everyone just accepted it.
We literally were made 30% poorer so the government can spend trillions.
Tipswatch retweeted
While there is a broad-based slowing among some the near-term measures of underlying CPI inflation, all the year-over-year measures on the dashboard are still elevated relative to the FOMC's price stability mandate. atlfed.org/3TrpBqj
Tipswatch retweeted
BREAKING: August PPI Inflation rises to 5.4%, above expectations of 5.3%.
Core PPI Inflation rose to 4.6%, the highest since June 2026.
July's headline and core PPI inflation numbers were also revised higher.
The odds of rate hikes are rising further on the news.
Tipswatch retweeted
Spot on from @DianeSwonk
If the Fed holds in September, that will also look political.
Honestly, the best case scenario is a clear signal from the August inflation data for the Fed. Hot August inflation data would seal the deal for a hike.
Political pressure on the Fed to cut rates with inflation smoldering and pockets of labor shortages emerging, could up the ante on a September hike.
The August inflation report has taken on even more weight. However, even a hold could look political short of a collapse in inflation. That is bad for the bond market, where yields have already soared. Record debt issuance, elevated inflation & the competition for debt - via a surge in covering debt & private debt for data centers construction - are all putting upward pressure on yields.
Tipswatch retweeted
On This Day in U.S. Financial History
On September 3, 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index reached a peak that would not be reached again until November 23, 1954. The index reached its bottom on July 8, 1932, a drop of about 89%.
For investors, it’s important to note that the index price doesn’t factor in dividends. According to @DividendGrowth, “If you account for dividend reinvestment, a $100 investment in US Stocks in 1929 would have broken even by 1936.”
Other issues that complicate this 25-year recovery stat are deflation (the Great Depression was a deflationary period) and the fact that the Dow Jones wasn’t an accurate gauge of the overall market.
#OnThisDay
Tipswatch retweeted
One advantage of buying brokered CDs at Fidelity is that they offer CDs from credit unions. Credit union share certificates (essentially CDs) sometimes have rates higher than any CDs from banks.
Last week, credit unions offered the highest rates on terms from 9 months to 2 years. Today, credit unions only dominated the 1-year term. Three credit unions issued 1-year non-callable CDs with a 4.20% rate, which was 10 bps higher than the top 1-year CD issued by banks.
I reviewed Fidelity credit union brokered CDs last year when Fidelity launched this feature.
xitter.cf/KenTumin/status/195060…
Tipswatch retweeted
US National Debt has increased by $715 billion since July 1 while the 10-Year Treasury yield has jumped from 4.48% to 4.75%.
Washington’s solution?
Increase buybacks of longer-dated Treasuries to $4 billion.
But swapping longer-maturity debt for shorter-maturity debt doesn’t solve the underlying problem: we’re still borrowing at an alarming pace.
Until that changes, the upward pressure on rates will remain.
Video: youtube.com/watch?v=9M5N3lQG…
Tipswatch retweeted
Odds of a Fed rate hike at the Sep 15-16 FOMC meeting are now 65.4% (up from 41.4% last week). Per CME FedWatch.
The US 10-year Treasury yield surged past 4.75% on Monday, its highest level since January 2025.
A sharp rally in crude oil combined with hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has markets rapidly repricing the likelihood of a September rate hike.
Across the curve, selloffs extended across multiple tenors:
10-Year Yield: Surpassed 4.75% for the first time since early 2025.
30-Year Yield: Rose 5 bps toward 5.26%, held back only by recent Treasury buyback announcements and upcoming month-end index rebalancing.