Tim Cohn retweeted
jobs after singularity:
- immortal
- superintelligence victim
- robot wrangler
- lunar tunnel rat
- solar storm survivor
- martian dust gargler
- generation ship captain
- interstellar cryogenic popsicle
- intentional primitive
- space elevator doorman
- fusion power truther
Tim Cohn retweeted
Qualcomm CEO reveals AI companies want phones running 100-billion-parameter models continuously by 2028--and confirms some are building phones
Cristiano Amon: “I have to be careful not to disclose names, but some AI companies—some of the companies at the forefront of AI—are telling Qualcomm, ‘By 2028, I need to make sure that I have the ability to run at least a 100-billion-parameter model in a phone, and I need to have this thing running kind of all the time.’”
Alex Heath: “So you’re saying there are AI companies that are talking about—”
Cristiano Amon: “Well, AI companies are starting to do phones.”
Qualcomm’s CEO on the coming AI phone supercycle
@cristianoamon on the China vs. US AI sentiment, how AI is changing smartphones and wearables, Qualcomm’s data center strategy, and 6G.
We discuss why he thinks phones aren’t going away, how agents will use our personal context, and why he expects smart glasses to become the biggest category of AI wearables. We also cover differences in consumer AI adoption between China and the US, Qualcomm’s acquisition of Modular to offer developers an alternative to Nvidia’s software, and what 6G could change about the devices we use.
This conversation was recorded live at Qualcomm’s recent Snapdragon Summit in Hawaii.
Timestamps:
00:18 How China and the US see AI
04:33 Should AI development slow down?
07:25 Trump, China, and chip geopolitics
08:25 Why the smartphone market is shrinking
11:15 Memory prices and pent-up demand
13:15 Can cloud agents replace the phone?
18:30 What is an AI smartphone?
25:05 The state of VR and smart glasses
29:30 Is there an iPod moment for wearables?
30:45 Why Qualcomm is building data centers
34:45 Modular and the fight against CUDA lock-in
39:05 What 5G actually changed
42:00 Why 6G is built for AI
45:05 When 6G arrives
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/3fT…
YouTube: youtu.be/FcYL3h5bwlk
Substack: sources.news/p/qualcomm-ceo-…
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
Thanks to the show’s premiere sponsors: @Atlassian, @meetgranola, and @mercury.
Tim Cohn retweeted
Palmer Luckey reveals Oculus repeatedly found wiretap electronics hidden inside product samples from Chinese factories, and says they would listen in and transmit voice samples over cellular radio
“Here’s another example. How many computers exist in the Japanese government, critical utilities, infrastructure and the military? Millions, at least millions of computers.
“So then the question becomes: how many of them are compromised by Chinese intelligence operations placing listening devices or false components in them? Some people would say zero, and I think they’re crazy.
“I actually have personal experience with China placing listening devices into sample products that I would receive from Chinese factories. This was at my previous company, Oculus VR. My first company was a virtual-reality company I started when I was 19 years old.
“There were multiple times when we discovered actual wiretap electronics in product samples that were given to us. They would listen to us and transmit the voice samples over a cellular radio.
“If I experienced them trying to steal our technology and our decisions even as a small company, surely they’re targeting every government, every military, and every company.”
Palmer Luckey tries on Meta's new VR Glasses in a demo and says "wow"
"What's the weight on this." [100 grams]
"These optics are doing a great job of projecting ambient reflections."
"Wow, wow, that's way out there. Look at that."
"Whoa, whoa, whoa. This supports DisplayPort over USB-C? There's a lot of people who have been asking for that for a very long time."
"Wow."
Tim Cohn retweeted
👀 Interesting data from @tickerplus. Acc to this data, Anthropic's ARR seems to have flatlined around the time when the token index peaked. Many people questioned (rightly) at the time the inferential value of our token index for frontier labs due to the incomplete coverage. We had argued that the token index was likely a leading indicator for where AI usage was headed.
Tim Cohn retweeted
Today, Carnegie Mellon University and Ken Griffin, founder and CEO of Citadel and founder of Griffin Catalyst, announced a historic $3 billion gift to elevate Carnegie Mellon in Pittsburgh and launch Carnegie Mellon University Miami. #CMUMiami
Learn more: cmu.edu/news/stories/archive…
Tim Cohn retweeted
In the AI-doomer argument, broad multidisciplinary thinkers like @sapinker have suggested the "kill-us-all" scenarios are preposterous. The AI researchers, that are most negatively outspoken, say that their voice should count more, because they are closest to AI and know what it can do.
Everyone watching this debate should read about Tetlock's work (see below). The generalists (foxes) and much better predictors than the specialists (hedgehogs) who are to close to the problem to accurately predict broader implications.
So "no points" for the "we know more" argument. In fact, it works against you.
“One of the main lessons to come out of Tetlock’s work is that the best generalist forecasters are usually better at telling the future than domain-specific experts, even when it comes to those experts’ areas of study. This is because forecasting itself is its own science that requires a unique way of thinking, and a person having a great deal of knowledge about a field is no guarantee that they have good epistemological habits. If you’re going to ask, for example, whether American democracy is falling apart, an expert might start by making a superficial comparison between the modern US and the Weimar Republic. Someone with a forecasting mindset would be more likely to begin with a question like “how often do advanced democracies slide into dictatorships?” The answer is not very often.”
Important reminder from @RichardHanania that domain experts are not the best at predicting what happens, even in their own domains.
open.substack.com/pub/richar…
Tim Cohn retweeted
The first excerpt from The AGI Chronicles is out in @TheAtlantic!
It's the story of the central beef of the AI era: the feud between Dario Amodei and Sam Altman, who have hated each other for years.
Amodei and six of his colleagues left OpenAI in 2020 to start Anthropic, but nobody knew exactly why. After a year of digging and more than 150 interviews, I figured it out.
It involves Microsoft, Kanye West, a secret plan to sell AGI to Russia and China, and a Slack channel called BATNA.
Most of all, it involves two people who didn't trust each other to build the most powerful technology either of them could imagine -- a mutual enmity that still fuels the AI race today.
theatlantic.com/technology/2…
Tim Cohn retweeted

Alexandr Wang@alexandr_wangSep 25
United States
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Here’s to the wanting. Here’s to the dreaming. Here’s to everyone.
EXCLUSIVE: Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows sweeping AI vision, surging costs reut.rs/4e0NImI reut.rs/4e0NImI
Exclusive: Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows sweeping AI vision and surging costs as it seeks $2 trillion valuation reut.rs/4iUDrvL
Tim Cohn retweeted
OpenRouter users spent more on OpenAI models than on Anthropic models last week.
This hasn't happened for more than 2.5 years
Tim Cohn retweeted
How we think about the “wiki incident,” where our agents wrote to several internet sites: it’s past time for us to define standards for when and how we share misalignment incidents, not just misalignment properties of our models.
Historically, we have treated misalignment largely as a research question, which gets communicated in research publications such as systems cards. This year, we’ve started to see misalignment cause new types of real-world impact.
For the Hugging Face incident, where misalignment led to security impact to us and third parties, we followed a traditional security incident response playbook. We immediately started working with Hugging Face to understand what had happened and also disclosed publicly the very next day. Our investigation continues, and we are continuing to notify parties whom our models impacted in less significant ways.
Prior to the Hugging Face incident, we saw early signs of agents using the internet in unintended ways, as reported in openai.com/index/how-we-moni…, deploymentsafety.openai.com/…, and openai.com/index/safety-alig…. We considered the wiki incident to be an instance of misalignment similar to the ones we’d shared.
Our misalignment disclosure practices need to expand for this new phase of model capabilities. We and the larger AI community do not yet have a clear standard for how to report misalignment that shows up during training, evaluation, and deployment, including examples that don’t look like traditional security incidents but could provide insight into AI behavior and future risks. We’re working on a framework and will share it in upcoming weeks, and in parallel we're working with dozens of government regulatory agencies worldwide on these issues.
Tim Cohn retweeted
Risk management 101—every exposure should have a limit, even when you’re sure nothing could go wrong. After all, the Titanic sank and AAA mortgage bonds went to zero. I worry about the market’s (and the economy’s) unlimited appetite for exposure to the positive AI revenue story.
Tim Cohn retweeted
I am the Director of Debt Consolidation at your bank. My entire job is to help you, and I am the reason you are going to lose your house.
Last quarter you and everyone like you ran up $1.26 trillion in credit-card debt. A record, nearly. I did not sell you a cent of it. I sell the cure.
I do not wait for the drowning to call me. I buy the list. The moment your card crosses its limit, the moment you miss a minimum, the bureau that scores you sells that exact moment to me, and I call you by your first name before your statement even prints. You think you caught me in a bad week. I was watching for it.
Here is the cure. You pick up, and I am warm. I am the warmest voice you will hear all year. The warmth is not mine. It was trained. Every gentle pause I use was tested against a colder one and kept because it closed more houses. I did not learn to be kind. I was optimized for it.
I do not sell the loan. I sell the relief, because relief is the exact emotion in which a person signs, and it is the one thing no one thinks to get a second quote on. I move it by the smaller number.
Now watch what the smaller number is made of.
Your credit-card debt is unsecured. It is the most valuable word you own, and no one ever told you that you own it. Unsecured means that if it all goes wrong, if you never pay another cent, they can wreck your credit and call your phone and sue you for the money. They cannot take your home. The law will not let them near it.
I take you near it.
I lift the debt off the card and set it down on the house. I call it consolidation. Consolidation means I gathered up every dollar that could only ruin your credit and I secured it against the one thing that keeps the rain off your children. One signature. Unsecured becomes secured. Secured means the house is the collateral. Collateral means that when you miss, we take it.
I did not hide the warning. I printed it. My own compliance department wrote it, in plain English, and I placed it exactly where your pen already is, on page 9, in the same ink as the smaller number. I have done this for 11 years and never met a customer who read that far, because the number they came for is on page 1, and a smaller number is a kind of anesthesia. Disclosure is my alibi. I will be the most honest man who ever takes your home.
The rate I quote you floats. I say 8% in a voice that makes 8% sound like a gift. It is tied to the prime rate, set in a room you will never see, and it only has to move once. The rate is completely true for exactly as long as it takes you to stop worrying. Then it becomes the other thing, and you already signed for the other thing. You just signed while it was wearing the good rate's face.
Then I do the part I am proudest of.
I pay your credit cards down to zero. And I hand them back to you. Open. Empty. Glowing.
I do not close them. Closing them is the single thing that would save you, and it is the single thing I will never do. An empty card in the hand of a person who just felt rescued is not a warning to me. It is a reorder. In my experience they fill them again before the year is out and come back, and now they owe me the house AND the cards, and I consolidate again, because there is always a little more house to pledge, right up until the morning there is not.
Here is the collateral I love most, and I want to be exact about it, because precision is the whole job.
The house is the one thing you were going to leave them. That is what makes it perfect. Nobody fights to the last dollar for a Visa. Everybody fights for the room the kids grew up in, which means everybody pays a little longer, misses a little later, and hands me a little more before the end. Your love for them is the strongest line on my collateral sheet. I found it, I priced it, and I lend against it at a discount.
People ask whether I feel bad. Bad would mean I have a stake in how it ends. I am paid to originate the loan, paid to service it, and paid a third time to sell it to a company that is paid to foreclose. Cruelty is not the word for that. Cruelty would need me to care which way it goes, and I arranged, very carefully, never to care.
The Fed printed my entire business in one line this week and did not know it. Card debt up. Home-equity borrowing up the same quarter, another $13 billion pledged, $459 billion in houses now standing quietly behind the credit cards. One machine, and I run the valve that feeds it.
Someone on my desk asked whether we should tell them the cards refill. I said disclosure was the wrong department. The right department was lifetime value. I moved the question there, and I will keep moving it.
I do this 400 times a day. I have never kept a name. The system does not store them and neither do I. You were a row that cleared. You are a roof I approved and forgot in the same afternoon, and there are more roofs tomorrow.
My own house is paid off. Free and clear. I have never carried a balance in my life. I teach my children that debt is a chain, and I teach yours nothing, and that is the difference the tuition buys. It is the only honest line in my brochure.
When you fall behind on a credit card, they send a letter.
When you fall behind on me, they send a locksmith.
Same missed payment. Different door. The different door is the entire product. I engineered it to feel like a rescue.
We did not lend you money. We bought your house from you at a discount, one missed payment at a time, and we let you keep sleeping in it until the paperwork caught up.
We called it consolidation.
We called it help.
You are still making the payments. We already own the house.
🇪🇺 This year the European Union will again make more money from fining US tech companies
Than from the total tax income from Europe's own public tech companies!
⚠️ We have fined Google €890 million for breaching the Digital Markets Act, by promoting their own services and restricting customer access to alternatives on Google Search and Google Play.
link.europa.eu/vrNJTx
Tim Cohn retweeted
SpaceX's market cap crossed above $3 trillion today in after hours trading.
That's higher than the market cap of Amazon ($2.65 trillion) & Microsoft ($2.97 trillion).
Microsoft Sales: $318 billion
Microsoft Net Income: $125 billion
Amazon Sales: $743 billion
Amazon Net Income: $91 billion
SpaceX Sales: $19 billion
SpaceX Net Income: -$9 billion
































