🆕 002: Is the United States and Iran headed for War? + Israel-Hamas, Turkey-Sweden NATO updates 🎙️ The next @LongTelegramFM episode is out! Watch below or find links to the mp3, YouTube video, and all podcast platforms on our website: longtelegram.fm/episodes/002…

🆕 A 50% chance of a multi-front war conditional on Israel invading Gaza?? + a whole lot more about the 🇮🇱🇵🇸 conflict. 🎙️ The @LongTelegramFM is finally here. Watch below or find links to the mp3, video, and more at our website: longtelegram.fm/episodes/001…

1️⃣ News in Numbers for Week 10/16/23 2️⃣ Diving into @RobinHanson's vision for Prediction Markets 3️⃣ The @NYTimes covers PMs and @ManifoldMarkets & more 🆕 Predictions 004: predictions.substack.com/p/0…

"...and human lives, all rest on the responsiveness of emergency aid. But the ability to actually #predict when these events will occur and to what scale is varied and region-dependent. So where can #forecasting provide added value?" Our answer: open.substack.com/pub/predic…

1️⃣ News in Numbers for Week 9/11/23 2️⃣ Diving into Natural Disaster Forecasting 3️⃣ Forecasting Saudi-Israeli Normalization 4️⃣ CFTC outlines Prediction Market stance & more 🆕 Predictions 003: predictions.substack.com/p/0…

Celebrate your #forecastFridays with the inaugural edition of our newsletter Predictions: 1️⃣ News in Numbers 2️⃣ Opinion: Merits of Long-Term Forecasting 3️⃣ Global Guess: More African Coups? 4️⃣ Base Rate News: Forecasting & Prediction Markets Read now: predictions.substack.com/p/0…

We can't wait for @ManifoldMarkets' Manifest Conference this fall on #forecasting and #prediction markets! manifestconference.net In anticipation, we collected our best relevant content ft @Kalshi @metaculus @smarkets @PredictIt + more to get you ready ⤵️youtube.com/playlist?list=PL…

🆕 Tensions are on the rise in the #Arctic, driven by climate change, military expansion, resources, and trade: youtube.com/watch?v=YRtc3tEV…

On Monday we attended the #NATOYouthSummit co-hosted by @NATO and @williamandmary in Washington D.C. and Brussels. We also spent some time with fellow geopolitics creators @intintrigue, @TheRedLinePod, and @D1Wheeler along the way. Let us know if you want more content like this!

🆕 How Diplomats Get Away with Murder: What is Diplomatic Immunity? youtu.be/zMUhIgoj_W4 #geopolitics #diplomats #diplomacy #diplomaticimmunity #AnneSacoolas #HarryDunn

🚨 Next Monday, we’re at the NATO Youth Summit! Virtual Delegate Registration here ⬇️ wm.edu/2023NATOYouthSummit #NATOYouthSummit @NATO @williamandmary @theredlinepod @d1wheeler

Our philosophy is we'll post wherever but we won't change our content to do so. But...we'll also only post where it's worth our time. We just signed up for @rumblevideo because it has enough users now to make sense: rumble.com/v2obg2a-what-happ… @chrispavlovski #geopolitics

📺 At its peak, #ISIS held ~33% of #Syria & ~40% of #Iraq. But by the end of 2017 the group had lost ~95% of that territory including its largest holdings: Mosul 🇮🇶 & Raqqa 🇸🇾. And in 2019, ISIS’ leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed. How did such a powerful group fall? 👇

🆕 What Happened to #ISIS?: The Rise and Fall of ISIS youtu.be/SAfJxo2dBOo #geopolitics #waronterror #MiddleEast

🆕📺 What happened last month between Saudi Arabia and Iran? 🇸🇦🇮🇷🇨🇳

🇺🇦 A stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems likely in the near term, potentially resulting in a "forever war" or frozen conflict, marginally favoring Russia. Such conflicts have been used by Russia before. 📺 Full video: youtu.be/XTL1crsWM6A 🇷🇺 Recent events in Afghanistan show how war weariness can affect Western support. If the Ukraine conflict becomes a stalemate, Western political and military support may wane, allowing Russia to gain the upper hand. 🇺🇸 Economic and political instability could expedite this process. Ukraine also faces the possibility of a less supportive US president after the 2024 election, impacting the conflict's dynamics. ⚠️ A stalemate in Ukraine raises the risk of the war escalating beyond its borders, causing even greater instability in the region. The international community must stay vigilant to prevent further escalation. #Ukraine #Russia #RussiaUkraine #stalemate #geopolitics #GeoVane

Our #TikTok (tiktok.com/@geovanevideo) has reached... 👀 Views: 56,780,162 👥 Followers: 337,000 ❤️ Likes: 4,821,484 💬 Comments: 127,319 📲 Shares: 54,786 We're coming for you, @PhillyD! tiktokviewcount.com/user/geo…