A podcast about geopolitics, predictions, and more from @GeovaneVideo.
Joined February 2022
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🆕 002: Is the United States and Iran headed for War? + Israel-Hamas, Turkey-Sweden NATO updates
🎙️: longtelegram.fm/episodes/002…
The Long Telegram retweeted
Some scattered thoughts and rapid predictions on the end of the Russo-Ukrainian War: thecategoricalimperative.sub…
🔮 Forecast: The Russo-Ukrainian War is set to end this year (~80% odds) and Ukraine will lose it (~95% odds).
The Long Telegram retweeted
🆕 002: Is the United States and Iran headed for War? + Israel-Hamas, Turkey-Sweden NATO updates
🎙️ The next @LongTelegramFM episode is out! Watch below or find links to the mp3, YouTube video, and all podcast platforms on our website: longtelegram.fm/episodes/002…
The Long Telegram retweeted
🆕 A 50% chance of a multi-front war conditional on Israel invading Gaza?? + a whole lot more about the 🇮🇱🇵🇸 conflict.
🎙️ The @LongTelegramFM is finally here. Watch below or find links to the mp3, video, and more at our website: longtelegram.fm/episodes/001…
🆕 001: Will Israel fight a Multi-Front War after invading Gaza? w/ @D1Wheeler and @ezra_brodey
🎙️: longtelegram.fm/episodes/001…
The Long Telegram retweeted
1️⃣ News in Numbers for Week 10/16/23
2️⃣ Diving into @RobinHanson's vision for Prediction Markets
3️⃣ The @NYTimes covers PMs and @ManifoldMarkets
& more
🆕 Predictions 004: predictions.substack.com/p/0…
The Long Telegram retweeted
🆕 What if @robinhanson is right and everyone else is wrong about the future of prediction markets?
➡️ open.substack.com/pub/predic…
The Long Telegram retweeted
1️⃣ News in Numbers for Week 9/11/23
2️⃣ Diving into Natural Disaster Forecasting
3️⃣ Forecasting Saudi-Israeli Normalization
4️⃣ CFTC outlines Prediction Market stance
& more
🆕 Predictions 003: predictions.substack.com/p/0…
The Long Telegram retweeted
Celebrate your #forecastFridays with the inaugural edition of our newsletter Predictions:
1️⃣ News in Numbers
2️⃣ Opinion: Merits of Long-Term Forecasting
3️⃣ Global Guess: More African Coups?
4️⃣ Base Rate News: Forecasting & Prediction Markets
Read now: predictions.substack.com/p/0…
The Long Telegram retweeted
We can't wait for @ManifoldMarkets' Manifest Conference this fall on #forecasting and #prediction markets! manifestconference.net
In anticipation, we collected our best relevant content ft @Kalshi @metaculus @smarkets @PredictIt + more to get you ready ⤵️youtube.com/playlist?list=PL…
The Long Telegram retweeted
🚨 A new episode of The Long Telegram is out!
On this episode we sat down with @zakavkaza to discuss the #Russia-#Ukraine conflict, #US-#China relations, and even #crypto! And most importantly, we discuss Max's new book which is out today! Watch now ⤵️
youtube.com/watch?v=dSTgLBhB…
The Long Telegram retweeted
🆕 Tensions are on the rise in the #Arctic, driven by climate change, military expansion, resources, and trade:
youtube.com/watch?v=YRtc3tEV…
The Long Telegram retweeted
We sat down with @intintrigue's John Fowler (@johnsnonsense) last week to discuss recent US-China developments, the war in Ukraine, Macron's desire to attend the upcoming #BRICS Summit, and the future of the #EU. Watch ⤵️
youtu.be/xEpk4ueTUeQ
The Long Telegram retweeted
🆕 How Diplomats Get Away with Murder: What is Diplomatic Immunity? youtu.be/zMUhIgoj_W4 #geopolitics #diplomats #diplomacy #diplomaticimmunity #AnneSacoolas #HarryDunn
The Long Telegram retweeted
Our team @GeovaneVideo did a morning-after recap of the #election in #Turkey. Let us know if you want to here us talk about the upcoming elections in Greece as well! Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics heating up
youtube.com/watch?v=PLPMVDwY…
The Long Telegram retweeted
🆕 What Happened to #ISIS?: The Rise and Fall of ISIS youtu.be/SAfJxo2dBOo #geopolitics #waronterror #MiddleEast
The Long Telegram retweeted
🇺🇦 A stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems likely in the near term, potentially resulting in a "forever war" or frozen conflict, marginally favoring Russia. Such conflicts have been used by Russia before.
📺 Full video: youtu.be/XTL1crsWM6A
🇷🇺 Recent events in Afghanistan show how war weariness can affect Western support. If the Ukraine conflict becomes a stalemate, Western political and military support may wane, allowing Russia to gain the upper hand.
🇺🇸 Economic and political instability could expedite this process. Ukraine also faces the possibility of a less supportive US president after the 2024 election, impacting the conflict's dynamics.
⚠️ A stalemate in Ukraine raises the risk of the war escalating beyond its borders, causing even greater instability in the region. The international community must stay vigilant to prevent further escalation.
#Ukraine #Russia #RussiaUkraine #stalemate #geopolitics #GeoVane
The Long Telegram retweeted
The mood in Moscow is swinging back to “we can win this thing”. This is very dangerous.
To all who currently think aloud about 🇺🇦 giving up territory to end the war, the West provoking 🇷🇺 too hard or irreversibly pushing it into China’s arms, (1/8)
#RussiainvadesUkraine