Forecasting, geopolitics, and prediction markets. Podcast: @LongTelegramFM. Support us: https://xitter.cf/t.co/diGZN3LgdE

Joined September 2020
1️⃣ News in Numbers for Week 10/16/23 2️⃣ Diving into @RobinHanson's vision for Prediction Markets 3️⃣ The @NYTimes covers PMs and @ManifoldMarkets & more 🆕 Predictions 004: predictions.substack.com/p/0…
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Some scattered thoughts and rapid predictions on the end of the Russo-Ukrainian War: thecategoricalimperative.sub… 🔮 Forecast: The Russo-Ukrainian War is set to end this year (~80% odds) and Ukraine will lose it (~95% odds).
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🆕 Debating #multipolarity and the first geopolitics trivia face-off! 🎙️ Episode 004 of the @LongTelegramFM: longtelegram.fm/episodes/004… YouTube: youtube.com/watch?v=gwcpVmLO… Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/15o… Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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🆕 002: Is the United States and Iran headed for War? + Israel-Hamas, Turkey-Sweden NATO updates 🎙️: longtelegram.fm/episodes/002…
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🆕 002: Is the United States and Iran headed for War? + Israel-Hamas, Turkey-Sweden NATO updates 🎙️ The next @LongTelegramFM episode is out! Watch below or find links to the mp3, YouTube video, and all podcast platforms on our website: longtelegram.fm/episodes/002…
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Timeline: (00:00) No Multipolarity for Andrew + Intro (00:25) US-Iran: Tensions and Potential for War? (06:54) US-Iran: Potential Escalation short of War (12:55) US-Iran: Relations and potential Conflict (15:45) Military strategy and potential invasion of Iran (17:10) US-Iran: Back to Tensions & Missile Defense Strategies (23:11) Potential Russian involvement in US-Iran conflict (27:45) Military strategy and missile technology (29:04) US military capabilities and potential conflicts (31:48) US military simulations and potential war with Iran (32:55) Iran's escalation strategies and potential consequences (34:45) Middle East conflicts and military preparedness (39:37) Potential Israeli Gaza invasion and its challenges (42:04) Gaza invasion feasibility and consequences (45:44) Counterterrorism strategies and urban warfare (47:21) Israeli military capabilities and readiness (51:42) Targeting Hamas leaders in Qatar & effectiveness of killing terrorist leaders (54:15) Erdogan sends Sweden NATO membership bill to Parliament (56:36) Outro + Andrew rants about Multipolarity (58:46) Blooper: Everyone hates Clay's sunglasses (1:00:12) Blooper: Everyone (but Clay) still has terrible audio (1:02:21) Blooper: Trump runs out of court (literally??) (1:02:36) Blooper: Scrub Daddy Fail! Note: This podcast was recorded on Thursday, October 26, 2023. #Geopolitics #Iran #Podcast
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🆕📺 Why did the US reject Bin Laden's surrender? by @D1Wheeler Watch on YouTube: youtu.be/MzNbePmoO1g
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🆕 A 50% chance of a multi-front war conditional on Israel invading Gaza?? + a whole lot more about the 🇮🇱🇵🇸 conflict. 🎙️ The @LongTelegramFM is finally here. Watch below or find links to the mp3, video, and more at our website: longtelegram.fm/episodes/001…
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00:00 - Pre-pod chatting 😂 01:07 - Intro: Israel-Hamas conflict from a historical, political, and economic perspective 03:10 - Why did the 10/7 Hamas attack happen? 05:45 - Abraham Accords, Saudi-Israel normalization 8:25 - Palestinian polling, terrorism, and domestic politics 10:23 - What caused the Hamas attack? 16:46 - Iran's role in Israel-Hamas conflict 18:16 - Did Iranian funds unfrozen by the US play a role? 20:20 - Returning to causes for Hamas’ attack 25:00 - Can Israel and a free Palestine coexist peacefully? 39:12 - What’s the United States’ role in the conflict? 43:49 - Trivia Break: How densely populated is Gaza City? 46:47: Potential Israeli invasion of Gaza 48:50 - What’s the deal with Israeli settlements? 51:30 - Will a multi-front war break out in the region? Who will join? 1:01:05 - Are US Aircraft Carriers in danger? & US military capabilities 1:07:45 - Escalation in the Middle East conflict 1:11:55 - Israel’s domestic political situation & Iranian conflict 1:17:32 - Wrapping up the show + Avdiivka preview 1:19:26 - Post-pod bloopers 🙂
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🆕 001: Will Israel fight a Multi-Front War after invading Gaza? w/ @D1Wheeler and @ezra_brodey 🎙️: longtelegram.fm/episodes/001…
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🆕 What if @robinhanson is right and everyone else is wrong about the future of prediction markets? ➡️ open.substack.com/pub/predic…
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WATCH: @robinhanson pleads with the #forecasting community to "take the gold" in his recent talk at #Manifest2023. This speech is sure to become a classic! youtube.com/watch?v=cCNgBazF…
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"Along with other layoffs, @Kalshi has not renewed contracts for certain political consultants and has not followed through on some of its plans to engage Washington-based think-tanks in an effort to enlist support for election markets." coalitionforpoliticalforecas…
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WATCH: #AI Debate | Destiny (@TheOmniLiberal) vs. Eliezer Yudkowsky (@ESYudkowsky) at #Manifest2023 – at Berkeley, CA
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