Swing trader. Not financial advice.
Lisbon, Portugal
Joined October 2022
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MCapital retweeted
$RBRK now 14% below ATHs in the pre-market. It is looking like I had the perfect exit.
The 50SMA / $100 zone is the next area of interest. I'll be looking for evidence of support there. If it doesn't hold, some serious downside could be coming, given how much the cybersecurity sector $CIBR ran the last few months.
$RBRK ran +200% from the bottom to the top. In this long run, it had stretches where it lost about 25% of its value in one or two weeks.
I did not have to catch the entire thing to make good money out of it. I caught two quick 30-40% runs with very limited downside risk.
Yesterday I closed one of the best trades so far on $RBRK. 213R total.
Trimmed a few times into strength and a couple into weakness when it rejected the AVWAPs from the highs.
Got in when I saw $CIBR getting super compressed again. Same playbook as last time I played it.
It could have easily gone the other way. I just sized it so a gap down wouldn't wreck my progress. Odds felt decent so I took the shot.
Got out because the sector looks stretched now and the liquid leaders like $CRWD and $PANW rejected a subtle resistance area. Odds of a pullback feel way higher than a sustained run.
I know I might be wrong but this is a game of odds.
MCapital retweeted
Just my worthless two cents:
I think the market lacks the needed buyers to really drive bullish volume. Sure, there are buyers, but just not enough.
It's a problem over a year in the marking.
It's the reason why since October 10th 2025, we've been in chop mode, except for April to June of this year.
It's the reason for the constant rotations: there simply isn't enough money to keep multiple growth sectors running at the same time.
It's the reason why Semi's and software can't get a bid on the same day. It's the same buyers for both, and there are too few of them.
It's the reason why market breadth is shite outside of mags and a handful of other sectors.
It's the reason why $PLTR, $DELL, $NTAP, $HPE can act great, but another 5000 stocks do not. What few buyers that are active are concentrated in a few stocks.
I know what the constant institutional bid looks like and feels like in the tape. It's that guardian angel that protects you from having consequences for your bad habits. It rewards you for believing that an invisible safety net is present on every dip buy.
The market doesn't give me any of those vibes and hasn't done so for some time.
I don't know what the buyers are waiting for: lower oil maybe, political change, or an end of the war. Who knows.
Normally, the institutional buyers see past the problems of today. They see the future solutions to today's problems we small time traders can't see. We just ride their coattails.
My guess is as of right now, the institutional buyers don't see any solutions to today's problems either, which is troublesome.
MCapital retweeted
Yes, I mostly show winners...
I don't hold losers. I cut them straight away.
My win rate is <20%, my stops are super tight. I lose a lot and I'm getting good at it.
The system is working.
You can see my performance since I started this swing trading strategy in late July.
MCapital retweeted
$AMZN The 21 day wins again. Perfect bounce off that 257 area. Must hold going forward.
MCapital retweeted
I finally managed to get positioned in $DELL today on the reclaim of the 20EMA. I went in heavy, so I already trimmed 1/3 to pay for the risk and moved stop to breakeven, as I don't to see it revisiting those levels. Let's hope this was the final shakeout of the shakeouts.
MCapital retweeted
JUST IN: Those betting on the return of Jesus on Polymarket this year have outperformed Bitcoin investors over the past ~5 years.
MCapital retweeted
With these thoughts in mind, I sold my remaining small positions yesterday ahead of the FOMC meeting and Big Tech earnings.
I’m 100% cash now. I’ll be studying the sectors that are performing well in the current market and try to figure out other entry tactics that allow me to manage risk in a better way.
I will not be opening new large positions until I receive some positive feedback from the market on what I'm doing.
I'm finding no traction with recent entries. It is frustrating...
My last 12 closed trades were losses. Most between 1%-2% and three between 5%-15%.
Currently with only 3 open positions and only one of them is already working - $LGN. But even this one looks like it might fade the breakout, so I've tightened my stop to make sure I don't let the gains run away.
Before that I had 8 straight wins ranging from 3-29%. I'm really not in sync with this choppy market.
I will be slowing down a bit for the next few trading sessions, until the market decides where it wants to go.
I'm back to 70%+ cash.
MCapital retweeted
In the 62 trading days since the Oct 29 highs, $QQQ has seen just 7 green days with above-average volume.
The red days? 17. More than double.
Not only that, but the selling volume is consistently heavier than the buying. I’ve been heavy cash for a while and 100% since pre-FOMC.
We will see how we close today.
I’m convinced yesterday was a double top. The only thing that can change my view would be clean breakout above the range to the upside.
Until then I’m staying defensive.
MCapital retweeted
In the 62 trading days since the Oct 29 highs, $QQQ has seen just 7 green days with above-average volume.
The red days? 17. More than double.
Not only that, but the selling volume is consistently heavier than the buying. I’ve been heavy cash for a while and 100% since pre-FOMC.
We will see how we close today.
I’m convinced yesterday was a double top. The only thing that can change my view would be clean breakout above the range to the upside.
Until then I’m staying defensive.
MCapital retweeted
$QQQ is on a tricky spot right now. Below the triangle and right at the 50SMA.
Some of my stops were triggered, locking in some good returns on $ZETA and $PATH. Took a very small loss on $GRND. And also exited $STZ for a nice return.
Now sitting on 57% cash and holding only $PYPL, $LYFT, $OSCR and $UNH.
Will be waiting for better setups and more clarity on the market to increase exposure again.
It has been a good start of the year, much better than the last one, where I didn't implement proper sell rules and round tripped many profits in the beginning of the year.
MCapital retweeted
The market is looking a bit fragile to me. We’ve seen a growing number of down weeks and those weeks have generally come with higher volume than the recovery weeks. It looks more like distribution than healthy consolidation.
The $QQQ is now trading below its late-October levels and the RSI continues to roll over.
I will be holding a bigger cash position than normally until I get some clarity where we are headed.
$QQQ $SPY
MCapital retweeted
Is it just me, or is the "buy the dip" trade feeling a bit too obvious? Everyone expects a repeat of the last V-shape, assuming funds will jump in early this time and it is just a dip.
I can’t help but wonder: what if retail buys in but we just… bleed? If it’s a slow burn, the funds win and retail gets stuck. Honestly, there's too much guesswork involved right now. I'm sticking to price action.
MCapital retweeted
$SEZL is setting up for a big time 2026.
Just off their initial guidance for the year the company is expecting ~30% earnings growth and trades at a ~16 Forward P/E.
Right now, the company has 100 open jobs on their website. The recent Glassdoor reviews all seem positive, and the last earnings call was bullish.
They just authorized a $100M stock repurchase program on December 15th, and the CEO hasn’t sold shares open market, despite owning 43% of the company.
The only big risk I foresee is if we truly enter a recession in 2026, but the odds of that seem relatively low now.
$sezl seems interesting on 60% pullback here. Started a small position to follow closer
• Rule of 100 check: ~67% revenue growth + ~23% net margins = ~90 or ~100 on adj ebitda basis
• Few fintechs approach this level of growth + profitability simultaneously.
• Quarterly GMV just crossed $1B; revenue grew ~67% YoY, without heavy marketing spend or loose underwriting.
• seems like high-quality growth. Net margins are ~22.8%, rivaling established payments companies
• Capital efficiency stands out. Capital turns ~8–9x annually, allowing Sezzle to dynamically reprice risk and adjust underwriting as conditions change.
• An underappreciated advantage is behavioral, not technological.
• Sezzle Up lets users report on-time payments to credit bureaus, turning BNPL into a credit-building product.
• Users repay to protect and improve their credit profile
• Credit metrics reflect this structure. Management guides to loss rates of 2.5%–2.75%, competitive with many prime credit portfolios.
• Risk controls are strict. A single missed payment triggers a hard kill switch on new purchases, limiting loss severity and reinforcing discipline.
• Subscription revenue adds another layer of stability. Less dependence on purely transactional BNPL economics.
• Founder alignment is strong. CEO and co-founder Charlie Youakim owns ~43% of the company.
• Despite this, valuation remains modest.
• ~16x forward earnings for a fintech growing >60% with 20%+ net margins.
Seems like potential disconnect between Sezzle’s fundamentals and its valuation for re-rating potential.
