Swing trader. Not financial advice.
Lisbon, Portugal
Joined October 2022
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Portfolio is pushing ATHs in the premarket. Kind of a strange feeling, this stretch has been hard to trade.
Nothing I do is new. I took concepts that were already working for other traders and put them together into a system that works for me. Spent the first half of the year building and testing it. Went live July 20.
Want to thank the people whose ideas shaped it. They fast tracked my move from longer term investor to profitable swing trader.
@RealSimpleAriel: Trade the strongest themes. Much easier when the whole group is working. Don't buy extended names (ATR multiple off the 50) and trim into extensions. I trade with two screens so I can watch the indexes, the sector ETF, the most liquid stocks in it and the stock I want, all at once. Many times that gets me in right before the intraday trend flips, with super tight risk.
@jfsrev: Compression to expansion. I check sector ETFs first to see which groups are coiling, then look for high ATR% names inside them. On entry day I try to cut risk by layering stops or moving them to proven support on the intraday chart. Most of my losers end up under 1R.
@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt: News failures. When everyone runs the other way the R/R can be stupid good. Still wait for price to confirm. Don't front run it.
@OliverKell_: Price action cycle with the 10 and 20 EMAs. The 65 min chart makes the structure obvious. Higher highs, higher lows, daily EMAs right there on the intraday chart.
@alphatrends: Anchored VWAP to find levels that can turn into support or resistance.
@martinlukkt: That's where the stop goes, and it can be really tight. AVWAP lining up with the key moving averages is what I look for most. Low win rate is fine. You can be wrong a lot if a few big winners pay for everything.
@1ChartMaster: 30 min pivot into higher timeframe support. Clean entry, tight risk.
@801010athlete: Precise entries on the 5 min. Cut losers fast and don't get weird about getting back in. The 6/20 MACD anticipation setup stuck with me.
@TheOneLanceB: Expected value and the daily report card. Data is now a big part of how I trade. Every week I run my trades through an AI system I built for myself. I see my performance, whether the edge is still there and how I'm handling the market. Then I pick the next thing to fix and do it again. The process is everything.
I follow all of them daily on X and/or YouTube, and I've paid for some of their services along the way (super cheap prices for the value they provide) to learn their strategies faster and speed up my learning curve.
There are plenty of other great traders too. I keep my following list on X very curated, it's who I learn from. If you are new to swing trading, go and learn from the people I follow.
I'm super grateful. Thank you, guys 馃檹
Still in cash, haven't placed a single trade in the last two weeks.
100% cash.
Followed the plan. Sold some into strength over the last few days and the stops took me out of the rest today.
Most important thing was keeping my equity curve near the highs after this nice run on the first 3 months executing my swing trading strategy, which I tested and developed in the first half of the year.
Portfolio hit ATHs at 24.50% a few days ago so I was able to get out of all my trades with only a minor pullback.
I don't know if the market is breaking down or not but my portfolio feedback clearly told me this was not a good place to be involved. The trend might be changing.
Either way, for the next two weeks I'll be on a work trip in Asia with limited time to follow the markets so I'll use that time to do some post analysis and try to refine the system for the next run.
I will not papercut myself to death in the next few days trying to catch the bottom. Today was clearly a big distribution day. More to come? We'll see.
Still in cash.
100% cash.
Followed the plan. Sold some into strength over the last few days and the stops took me out of the rest today.
Most important thing was keeping my equity curve near the highs after this nice run on the first 3 months executing my swing trading strategy, which I tested and developed in the first half of the year.
Portfolio hit ATHs at 24.50% a few days ago so I was able to get out of all my trades with only a minor pullback.
I don't know if the market is breaking down or not but my portfolio feedback clearly told me this was not a good place to be involved. The trend might be changing.
Either way, for the next two weeks I'll be on a work trip in Asia with limited time to follow the markets so I'll use that time to do some post analysis and try to refine the system for the next run.
I will not papercut myself to death in the next few days trying to catch the bottom. Today was clearly a big distribution day. More to come? We'll see.
MCapital retweeted
$RBRK now 14% below ATHs in the pre-market. It is looking like I had the perfect exit.
The 50SMA / $100 zone is the next area of interest. I'll be looking for evidence of support there. If it doesn't hold, some serious downside could be coming, given how much the cybersecurity sector $CIBR ran the last few months.
$RBRK ran +200% from the bottom to the top. In this long run, it had stretches where it lost about 25% of its value in one or two weeks.
I did not have to catch the entire thing to make good money out of it. I caught two quick 30-40% runs with very limited downside risk.
Yesterday I closed one of the best trades so far on $RBRK. 213R total.
Trimmed a few times into strength and a couple into weakness when it rejected the AVWAPs from the highs.
Got in when I saw $CIBR getting super compressed again. Same playbook as last time I played it.
It could have easily gone the other way. I just sized it so a gap down wouldn't wreck my progress. Odds felt decent so I took the shot.
Got out because the sector looks stretched now and the liquid leaders like $CRWD and $PANW rejected a subtle resistance area. Odds of a pullback feel way higher than a sustained run.
I know I might be wrong but this is a game of odds.
$RBRK now 14% below ATHs in the pre-market. It is looking like I had the perfect exit.
The 50SMA / $100 zone is the next area of interest. I'll be looking for evidence of support there. If it doesn't hold, some serious downside could be coming, given how much the cybersecurity sector $CIBR ran the last few months.
$RBRK ran +200% from the bottom to the top. In this long run, it had stretches where it lost about 25% of its value in one or two weeks.
I did not have to catch the entire thing to make good money out of it. I caught two quick 30-40% runs with very limited downside risk.
Yesterday I closed one of the best trades so far on $RBRK. 213R total.
Trimmed a few times into strength and a couple into weakness when it rejected the AVWAPs from the highs.
Got in when I saw $CIBR getting super compressed again. Same playbook as last time I played it.
It could have easily gone the other way. I just sized it so a gap down wouldn't wreck my progress. Odds felt decent so I took the shot.
Got out because the sector looks stretched now and the liquid leaders like $CRWD and $PANW rejected a subtle resistance area. Odds of a pullback feel way higher than a sustained run.
I know I might be wrong but this is a game of odds.
100% cash.
Followed the plan. Sold some into strength over the last few days and the stops took me out of the rest today.
Most important thing was keeping my equity curve near the highs after this nice run on the first 3 months executing my swing trading strategy, which I tested and developed in the first half of the year.
Portfolio hit ATHs at 24.50% a few days ago so I was able to get out of all my trades with only a minor pullback.
I don't know if the market is breaking down or not but my portfolio feedback clearly told me this was not a good place to be involved. The trend might be changing.
Either way, for the next two weeks I'll be on a work trip in Asia with limited time to follow the markets so I'll use that time to do some post analysis and try to refine the system for the next run.
I will not papercut myself to death in the next few days trying to catch the bottom. Today was clearly a big distribution day. More to come? We'll see.
Sold a bunch of stuff today, with the $QQQ looking like it is losing the 20EMA. Still have 3 trailer positions open, all with stops at or close to the LoD.
I'll be on a work trip in the next 2 weeks, so I don't mind to go into cash, especially with earnings season starting.
My main objective is keep my equity curve near the highs, ideally keeping my drawdowns under 6%. That allows me to drawdown another 4% when I start trying to get positioned again and still be within 10% of highs. That is easy to recover in a trending environment. Over 10% and the math starts working against me.
I'm now 80% cash.
The only new position that survived was $NBIS, let's see if the bounce can continue into tomorrow's session. Got stopped out on $ARM for +5R intraday and $SPCX at breakeven.
26% cash.
With the profits I took yesterday from $RBRK, $MU, $PLTR and $NOW, plus some new trims on $PLTR, $NOW and $FSLY today, I went heavy on AI stocks into the gap down.
Went heavy into $ARM and smaller into $NBIS. Both gapped down into support gaps after several days of selling so I figured some rotation back into AI and a bit of short covering was likely. Already sold a good chunk of $ARM for some nice profits.
Then sold $HALO for a small gain when I saw $XBI getting very weak. Used that cash plus the $ARM profits to go into $SPCX at the 20EMA support.
All new positions in $ARM, $NBIS and $SPCX have stops at breakeven or in profit in case the $QQQ reverses the bounce. Free trades now and I might de-risk further into the close.
0% cash. Feeling good. These are the type of days where you can get some super low risk entries on the volatile names and I executed my plan perfectly. Even if I get stopped out from all of them, I already locked in solid gains from $ARM and will still be roughly 70% invested. The market will decide if these turn into swings or just day trades.
With the profits I took yesterday from $RBRK, $MU, $PLTR and $NOW, plus some new trims on $PLTR, $NOW and $FSLY today, I went heavy on AI stocks into the gap down.
Went heavy into $ARM and smaller into $NBIS. Both gapped down into support gaps after several days of selling so I figured some rotation back into AI and a bit of short covering was likely. Already sold a good chunk of $ARM for some nice profits.
Then sold $HALO for a small gain when I saw $XBI getting very weak. Used that cash plus the $ARM profits to go into $SPCX at the 20EMA support.
All new positions in $ARM, $NBIS and $SPCX have stops at breakeven or in profit in case the $QQQ reverses the bounce. Free trades now and I might de-risk further into the close.
0% cash. Feeling good. These are the type of days where you can get some super low risk entries on the volatile names and I executed my plan perfectly. Even if I get stopped out from all of them, I already locked in solid gains from $ARM and will still be roughly 70% invested. The market will decide if these turn into swings or just day trades.
Some news were released on $ARM and the stock dumped below VWAP, so I got stopped out for a gain on the remaining shares (half of the initial position). Annoying, as it quickly recovered VWAP... But it is what it is...
+5R total in this day trade. This is why on these potential bounce days I enter heavy if I find a good spot to manage risk and take profits into the bounce.
$SPCX and $NBIS are still alive, though I think I'll likely get stopped on $SPCX at breakeven.
Yesterday I closed $MU for 80R total. Got in on a large gap down into a support gap and sold into strength against resistance levels.
In hindsight I should have sold more into that resistance area and probably shouldn't have tried to add back later. Still a good trade though. Used the $DRAM ETF to help with entry and exit timings.
Despite $MU finding support on the 50SMA yesterday, the sector was already below it so my stop sold the remaining shares at the open.
Yesterday I closed one of the best trades so far on $RBRK. 213R total.
Trimmed a few times into strength and a couple into weakness when it rejected the AVWAPs from the highs.
Got in when I saw $CIBR getting super compressed again. Same playbook as last time I played it.
It could have easily gone the other way. I just sized it so a gap down wouldn't wreck my progress. Odds felt decent so I took the shot.
Got out because the sector looks stretched now and the liquid leaders like $CRWD and $PANW rejected a subtle resistance area. Odds of a pullback feel way higher than a sustained run.
I know I might be wrong but this is a game of odds.
Some bad looking action in the market today.
Ended up closing my $RBRK trade for a total 213R, the best of the year so far.
$MU also closed for 80R. I will post the charts of these trades and the reasons behind my decisions tomorrow.
Trimmed a little bit of $PLTR and $NOW. Unfortunately, I was working when $NOW hit and rejected the resistance gap and was not able to take advantage of today's morning gap...
Crypto is also acting weak again, I might need to get rid of $CRCL next. We will see how the day goes tomorrow.
I'm going on a work trip to Singapore in the next two weeks, so if the market weakens throughout the rest of the week, I'm happy to go to cash and stay in cash during the trip.
22% cash.
MCapital retweeted
Just my worthless two cents:
I think the market lacks the needed buyers to really drive bullish volume. Sure, there are buyers, but just not enough.
It's a problem over a year in the marking.
It's the reason why since October 10th 2025, we've been in chop mode, except for April to June of this year.
It's the reason for the constant rotations: there simply isn't enough money to keep multiple growth sectors running at the same time.
It's the reason why Semi's and software can't get a bid on the same day. It's the same buyers for both, and there are too few of them.
It's the reason why market breadth is shite outside of mags and a handful of other sectors.
It's the reason why $PLTR, $DELL, $NTAP, $HPE can act great, but another 5000 stocks do not. What few buyers that are active are concentrated in a few stocks.
I know what the constant institutional bid looks like and feels like in the tape. It's that guardian angel that protects you from having consequences for your bad habits. It rewards you for believing that an invisible safety net is present on every dip buy.
The market doesn't give me any of those vibes and hasn't done so for some time.
I don't know what the buyers are waiting for: lower oil maybe, political change, or an end of the war. Who knows.
Normally, the institutional buyers see past the problems of today. They see the future solutions to today's problems we small time traders can't see. We just ride their coattails.
My guess is as of right now, the institutional buyers don't see any solutions to today's problems either, which is troublesome.
Received dozens of messages from other traders with questions on my strategy after this post.
I will be sharing more about my process in future posts.
If you're still learning and building your own swing trading strategy, I strongly suggest you follow more experienced traders like the ones below. You'll end up "stealing" some concepts from them into your own system. It will help you al lot.
Portfolio is pushing ATHs in the premarket. Kind of a strange feeling, this stretch has been hard to trade.
Nothing I do is new. I took concepts that were already working for other traders and put them together into a system that works for me. Spent the first half of the year building and testing it. Went live July 20.
Want to thank the people whose ideas shaped it. They fast tracked my move from longer term investor to profitable swing trader.
@RealSimpleAriel: Trade the strongest themes. Much easier when the whole group is working. Don't buy extended names (ATR multiple off the 50) and trim into extensions. I trade with two screens so I can watch the indexes, the sector ETF, the most liquid stocks in it and the stock I want, all at once. Many times that gets me in right before the intraday trend flips, with super tight risk.
@jfsrev: Compression to expansion. I check sector ETFs first to see which groups are coiling, then look for high ATR% names inside them. On entry day I try to cut risk by layering stops or moving them to proven support on the intraday chart. Most of my losers end up under 1R.
@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt: News failures. When everyone runs the other way the R/R can be stupid good. Still wait for price to confirm. Don't front run it.
@OliverKell_: Price action cycle with the 10 and 20 EMAs. The 65 min chart makes the structure obvious. Higher highs, higher lows, daily EMAs right there on the intraday chart.
@alphatrends: Anchored VWAP to find levels that can turn into support or resistance.
@martinlukkt: That's where the stop goes, and it can be really tight. AVWAP lining up with the key moving averages is what I look for most. Low win rate is fine. You can be wrong a lot if a few big winners pay for everything.
@1ChartMaster: 30 min pivot into higher timeframe support. Clean entry, tight risk.
@801010athlete: Precise entries on the 5 min. Cut losers fast and don't get weird about getting back in. The 6/20 MACD anticipation setup stuck with me.
@TheOneLanceB: Expected value and the daily report card. Data is now a big part of how I trade. Every week I run my trades through an AI system I built for myself. I see my performance, whether the edge is still there and how I'm handling the market. Then I pick the next thing to fix and do it again. The process is everything.
I follow all of them daily on X and/or YouTube, and I've paid for some of their services along the way (super cheap prices for the value they provide) to learn their strategies faster and speed up my learning curve.
There are plenty of other great traders too. I keep my following list on X very curated, it's who I learn from. If you are new to swing trading, go and learn from the people I follow.
I'm super grateful. Thank you, guys 馃檹
Trimmed some $TSLA today when it rejected the resistance gap and $FSLY on this +16% day.
Rotated some profits back to $MU after having trimmed it higher two weeks ago. Thought this support gap was a good area to try. Memory didn't participate in today's rally, but I could see them getting some bids again next week, therefore decided to allocate some risk back. Increased a little bit my cost basis from $904 to $935.
$PLTR closed at ATHs, crypto bounced and my add on $CRCL is looking good. My small biotech exposure, $HALO recovered the 10 and 20 EMAs and I have my stop in profit.
3% cash.
Portfolio officially at ATHs :)
