30 | Investing to $1,000,000 in my taxable brokerage | Crazy enough to jump out of planes for fun | not financial advice
Joined January 2019
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Kyle Adams retweeted
If you're not tuned in to enterprise AI adoption, let me tell you that no one knows what they're doing.
It's a gigantic power struggle between governance, security, AI enablement, IT, data science, all between one set of agents.
All while the board says "We need to be AI native" without a clue what that actually means.
If you're at a small startup that's using agents and skills and domain-specific harnesses, be very grateful.
Should probably clarify and add I have nothing against people who post thoughtful posts, but just don’t love seeing people post buys over and over. I have a lot of respect for people like @mvcinvesting who post thoughtful content.
If I had a dollar for every time I saw a $NBIS or $IREN post about buying more of the stock over the last few days, and it then proceeding to go lower I’d be a very wealthy man.
Just remember we are entering a rate hike cycle, people are questioning the AI spend heavily, Anthropic is looking at an IPO of $500B less, and many of these large AI labs have hundreds of billions of dollars in capex commitments, and will have a hard time finding capital soon to provide the necessary $ to fund it.
AI and the technology are real, but there are many other factors at play, and if the ROI doesn’t show up soon, then we should expect a slowdown.
Just some food for thought.
If I had a dollar for every time I saw a $NBIS or $IREN post about buying more of the stock over the last few days, and it then proceeding to go lower I’d be a very wealthy man.
Just remember we are entering a rate hike cycle, people are questioning the AI spend heavily, Anthropic is looking at an IPO of $500B less, and many of these large AI labs have hundreds of billions of dollars in capex commitments, and will have a hard time finding capital soon to provide the necessary $ to fund it.
AI and the technology are real, but there are many other factors at play, and if the ROI doesn’t show up soon, then we should expect a slowdown.
Just some food for thought.
Kyle Adams retweeted
$PPIH, $ASYS, $SILC - 3 AI names I like.
Don’t have much debt, strong balance sheets, and should see strong earnings growth the next 12-18 months.
I’d be super cautious buying companies with a lot of debt (think neoclouds), especially when interest rates will surely go up the next few quarters, and many of them need to raise a lot more capital, which will be expensive.
$PPIH, $ASYS, $SILC - 3 AI names I like.
Don’t have much debt, strong balance sheets, and should see strong earnings growth the next 12-18 months.
I’d be super cautious buying companies with a lot of debt (think neoclouds), especially when interest rates will surely go up the next few quarters, and many of them need to raise a lot more capital, which will be expensive.
Kyle Adams retweeted
I started a position in $ASYS.
I really like the setup here. The business is increasingly shifting toward AI-driven semiconductor advanced packaging, while the weaker SiC-related business continues to shrink. AI-related revenue was up ~120% YoY last quarter, TPS backlog is up 69%, and I think 2027 could be an inflection year as this demand really starts hitting the P&L.
I’m also a big fan of new CEO Guy Shechter. He has deep semiconductor experience, strong industry relationships, and has been very visible meeting customers, partners and investors based on LinkedIn. Add in $83M+ of cash, and Amtech has plenty of flexibility to invest behind its strongest businesses or pursue an accretive acquisition.
There’s also some longer-term optionality around thermal/cooling applications that I’m watching. Only one initial deal has been done here. Too early to tell though, so not a main part of the thesis.
The stock isn’t optically cheap on current earnings, but 2027 estimates paint a much different picture. Around $15/share, I think the risk/reward is compelling enough to own an initial position.
Looking forward to digging deeper into this one.
Good day to raise my $ASYS to a full position.
We are now at the level the CFO bought shares open market.
I started a position in $ASYS.
I really like the setup here. The business is increasingly shifting toward AI-driven semiconductor advanced packaging, while the weaker SiC-related business continues to shrink. AI-related revenue was up ~120% YoY last quarter, TPS backlog is up 69%, and I think 2027 could be an inflection year as this demand really starts hitting the P&L.
I’m also a big fan of new CEO Guy Shechter. He has deep semiconductor experience, strong industry relationships, and has been very visible meeting customers, partners and investors based on LinkedIn. Add in $83M+ of cash, and Amtech has plenty of flexibility to invest behind its strongest businesses or pursue an accretive acquisition.
There’s also some longer-term optionality around thermal/cooling applications that I’m watching. Only one initial deal has been done here. Too early to tell though, so not a main part of the thesis.
The stock isn’t optically cheap on current earnings, but 2027 estimates paint a much different picture. Around $15/share, I think the risk/reward is compelling enough to own an initial position.
Looking forward to digging deeper into this one.
Kyle Adams retweeted
"If a peer comes to ask me how to deal with the agentic risk that we're all seeing the first thing I'd tell him or her is to get Runlayer." - Jonathan Jaffe, CISO at Lemonade
We're proud to partner with @Lemonade_Inc to govern their agentic workloads.
Over the past 90 days, Runlayer has managed 300K MCP tool calls across Lemonade's 1700+ person workforce while executing 25M+ security checks.
"Runlayer has allowed Security to enable the business rather than be a source of friction."
Kyle Adams retweeted
$VST article is live.
Recent Cogentrix acquisition, bundled with long term PPAs with META and AMZN give the company a clear runway for growth.
Recent US government loan of $4.2 billion highlights the companies strong relationship with policy makers (Nancy Pelosi has a stake) which is a huge part of a regulated business.
ERCOT segment growth in Texas is poised to continue accelerating and $VST is the best positioned company to take advantage of that dynamic.
Link in bio.
Kyle Adams retweeted
$VST remains one of my favorite ways to play rising U.S. power demand.
Vistra is already benefiting from stronger pricing. Q2 adjusted EBITDA increased more than 30% YoY to $1.77B, driven primarily by higher realized energy and capacity prices along with contributions from acquired assets. Management continues to expect major load growth through 2030, which is roughly 4-6% annually in ERCOT and 2-3% in PJM driven by data centers, reshoring, electrification and population growth.
The nuclear story is even more compelling. Vistra signed 20-year agreements with Meta covering 2,609 MW across its PJM nuclear fleet, including 433 MW of new uprates. It also has a 20-year agreement with AWS for up to 1,200 MW from Comanche Peak.
The DOE has announced a conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2B to help finance nuclear uprates and modernization across Vistra's Pennsylvania and Ohio fleet. If finalized, that financing would help preserve nearly 4 GW of existing nuclear generation while adding 433 MW of new capacity.
And the financial setup remains strong. Vistra's 2027 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity is $7.4B-$7.8B and importantly, that figure excludes potential contributions from the pending Cogentrix acquisition AND the Meta PPAs. Vistra has also repurchased roughly $6.5B of stock since 2021, reducing its share count by ~30%.
Management summed up the opportunity well on the latest earnings call: “the long-term expected improvement in power market fundamentals is underway.”
TLDR; Higher realized power prices. Rapid electricity demand growth. 20-year nuclear contracts. Potentially billions in federal financing. Aggressive buybacks.
I really like the long-term setup for $VST.
$VST remains one of my favorite ways to play rising U.S. power demand.
Vistra is already benefiting from stronger pricing. Q2 adjusted EBITDA increased more than 30% YoY to $1.77B, driven primarily by higher realized energy and capacity prices along with contributions from acquired assets. Management continues to expect major load growth through 2030, which is roughly 4-6% annually in ERCOT and 2-3% in PJM driven by data centers, reshoring, electrification and population growth.
The nuclear story is even more compelling. Vistra signed 20-year agreements with Meta covering 2,609 MW across its PJM nuclear fleet, including 433 MW of new uprates. It also has a 20-year agreement with AWS for up to 1,200 MW from Comanche Peak.
The DOE has announced a conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2B to help finance nuclear uprates and modernization across Vistra's Pennsylvania and Ohio fleet. If finalized, that financing would help preserve nearly 4 GW of existing nuclear generation while adding 433 MW of new capacity.
And the financial setup remains strong. Vistra's 2027 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity is $7.4B-$7.8B and importantly, that figure excludes potential contributions from the pending Cogentrix acquisition AND the Meta PPAs. Vistra has also repurchased roughly $6.5B of stock since 2021, reducing its share count by ~30%.
Management summed up the opportunity well on the latest earnings call: “the long-term expected improvement in power market fundamentals is underway.”
TLDR; Higher realized power prices. Rapid electricity demand growth. 20-year nuclear contracts. Potentially billions in federal financing. Aggressive buybacks.
I really like the long-term setup for $VST.
Kyle Adams retweeted
I’m constantly amazed at the horrendous capital allocation decisions microcap management make. Here’s a list of past behavior historical red flags you should include in your AI prompts:
1. When companies have an ATM and a buy back in place at the same time.
2. When companies buy back stock shortly after an offering.
3. When they quote investment banking studies in private conversations with you, to justify why they should have a shelf out there. Well ya!!! …. That’s easily my favorite.
4. When the liquidity sections in filings state a company has enough cash for the short and long term - then do a raise.
5. When management makes public statements that they don’t have to raise capital and then do so shortly thereafter.
6. Issuing a shelf right after they raise a bunch of money. WTF, let it fucking breathe before you destroy shareholder capital.
7. The “just in case shelf: Management teams that justify filing a shelf registration because “the stock might go up” or “an acquisition opportunity might come along.” Then months, sometimes years, go by with no acquisitions. Or better yet, they make acquisitions without ever needing to tap the shelf. So why did they need it in the first place? Investment bankers are usually the ones prodding a company to do this after showing them how they could’ve raised money when the stock went up if they had a shelf … and now it’s back down. “Be ready for the next move,” when in actuality, who knows if the stock would have went up with a shelf out there - the bankers leave that little detail out of the equation.
8. Management teams that seem to view every significant increase in their stock price as an opportunity to issue more shares, regardless of whether they actually need the capital.
9. Management teams that justify issuing more shares because they want to increase trading liquidity. So you’re willing to dilute existing shareholders to make it easier for other investors to trade your stock? That’s your capital allocation strategy?
I’m not saying companies shouldn’t tap the capital markets to raise money via equity. But if you want shareholders to trust that you understand smart capital allocation, you have to earn that trust through decisions that make sense and demonstrate an ability to create shareholder value.
Kyle Adams retweeted
I’ve gotten a few questions in my DMs asking if I still hold $PPIH.
The answer is yes, and I’m still bullish.
The thesis remains the same that Perma-Pipe is positioned to benefit from both the AI/data-center infrastructure buildout and continued MENA infrastructure spending.
In Q2 2026, the company added $67M+ in new orders, including its first MENA critical cooling infrastructure award, while backlog reached $142.3M, up from $121.6M at the start of the year.
Two strong secular tailwinds, with execution continuing to show up in the numbers.
At $31/share, the valuation is also modest.
Trailing P/E: ~16.5x on TTM EPS of ~$1.90.
TTM revenue growth: +24.8% YoY to ~$226M.
TTM EPS growth: roughly +51% YoY.
I'm expecting growth to continue, especially given the new facilities haven't even fully ramped according to Saleh.
“We expect this facility to ramp up to full production by early 2027. The same is also true for the Qatar facility.”
He is referencing the Ohio facility, which will focus on data center work, and the Qatar facility will handle LNG/energy work, especially from QatarEnergy, the largest exporter of LNG in the world.
So, yes, I still hold $PPIH, and still believe the best years are ahead, and the stock will appreciate with time.
I started a position in $ASYS.
I really like the setup here. The business is increasingly shifting toward AI-driven semiconductor advanced packaging, while the weaker SiC-related business continues to shrink. AI-related revenue was up ~120% YoY last quarter, TPS backlog is up 69%, and I think 2027 could be an inflection year as this demand really starts hitting the P&L.
I’m also a big fan of new CEO Guy Shechter. He has deep semiconductor experience, strong industry relationships, and has been very visible meeting customers, partners and investors based on LinkedIn. Add in $83M+ of cash, and Amtech has plenty of flexibility to invest behind its strongest businesses or pursue an accretive acquisition.
There’s also some longer-term optionality around thermal/cooling applications that I’m watching. Only one initial deal has been done here. Too early to tell though, so not a main part of the thesis.
The stock isn’t optically cheap on current earnings, but 2027 estimates paint a much different picture. Around $15/share, I think the risk/reward is compelling enough to own an initial position.
Looking forward to digging deeper into this one.
Excited to share that I’ll be joining the @runlayer team next Monday as part of the GTM organization.
Every company today is trying to figure out how to adopt AI faster, while still doing it securely. Runlayer is building the golden path for secure AI enablement, giving enterprises identity aware controls, observability, runtime security, cost optimization, and visibility into shadow AI across teams and agents.
I’m incredibly excited about what this team is building and where this market is headed. I truly believe Runlayer has the potential to become one of the next great AI companies.
Super stoked to get started next Monday.
Super cool launch from @runlayer.
Excited to be joining the team next Monday!!
Today, we're launching the ability to say yes to Muse at work.
People are giving Muse access to their company's most sensitive data & systems. Yet companies have no way to control this access. Many are blocking it. Others have had Muse go rogue, leaking company data, sending unauthorized emails, and more.
Runlayer provides hundreds of secured connectors for Muse, governed by deterministic policies & runtime security models that you can control. Runlayer also detects when Muse is being used within company systems without governance, and alerts you.
Teams get access to the most powerful personal agent. Companies maintain security and control. Win win.
Smart comment of the day goes to @GrumpierBTDay.
Love this approach for finding some gold.
I have two methods:
- Open up @InfoArbMonitor, set to mcab below 1B, start reading PRs in chronological order. Can get even more narrow and filter for 8K item 2.02's (earnings).
- Open up Tradingview, set screen to under $1B, start flipping through charts in alphabetical order.
Interesting things will pop up on either if you know what you're looking for.
I haven't done any screening in a while, but going A-Z on *some* method is unbeatable.