ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine chart for Texas at Tennessee on September 26. Game probability: Texas 50.2% and Tennessee 49.8%. Texas has a 74.0% CFP chance with a win and 44.6% with a loss, a 29.4-point swing. Tennessee has a 44.7% CFP chance with a win and 17.4% with a loss, a 27.3-point swing. September 25 model, 10,000 simulations. Conditional season outcomes, not a prediction of the game winner.

ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic titled “The loss hit hard. The forecast barely moved.” Ohio State is No. 4 nationally with an 81.9% chance to make the College Football Playoff. The top five are Indiana 95.7%, Notre Dame 92.2%, Miami 85.0%, Ohio State 81.9%, and Texas Tech 77.1%, based on 10,000 simulations from the Sep. 16, 2026 model update.

ALT MarchMetrix Saturday Four card for Texas Tech at Oregon State. Texas Tech costs $40 of a $100 budget, has a 96.7% projected win probability, and earns 12 points for a road win. Game kicks Saturday, September 12 at 6:30 PM Central. Week 2 slate updated September 11, 2026.

ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine showing Notre Dame’s CFP chance at 73%, down 16.6 points from an 89% baseline, after selecting a Wisconsin win. The result is based on 1,001 of 10,000 simulations.