
ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine chart for Texas at Tennessee on September 26. Game probability: Texas 50.2% and Tennessee 49.8%. Texas has a 74.0% CFP chance with a win and 44.6% with a loss, a 29.4-point swing. Tennessee has a 44.7% CFP chance with a win and 17.4% with a loss, a 27.3-point swing. September 25 model, 10,000 simulations. Conditional season outcomes, not a prediction of the game winner.

ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic comparing Texas and Tennessee. The Week 4 game probability is nearly even: Texas 50.2% and Tennessee 49.8%. The separate season-long CFP probability is farther apart: Texas 60.1% and Tennessee 30.8%. The Sep. 23 model is based on 10,000 simulations. Model probabilities, not betting odds.

ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic titled “The loss hit hard. The forecast barely moved.” Ohio State is No. 4 nationally with an 81.9% chance to make the College Football Playoff. The top five are Indiana 95.7%, Notre Dame 92.2%, Miami 85.0%, Ohio State 81.9%, and Texas Tech 77.1%, based on 10,000 simulations from the Sep. 16, 2026 model update.














