@Marchmetrix

The model behind every CFP path, priced nightly, and the CBB bracket engine that runs all spring. Free games. Live odds. Receipts.

marchmetrix.com
Joined January 2026
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Friday’s Playoff Machine board moved overnight — Georgia took the biggest hit. Georgia slipped 1.8 points to 85.4%. Indiana fell from fourth to fifth at 94.0% as Miami climbed to 95.1%. See the full board: marchmetrix.com/football/mac…
MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic titled ‘The board finally moved.’ Georgia has the board’s biggest change, falling from 87.2% to 85.4%, down 1.8 percentage points. Miami moves from No. 5 to No. 4 at 95.1%, while Indiana moves from No. 4 to No. 5 at 94.0%. October 2, 2026 model based on 10,000 simulations. Model probabilities, not betting odds.

ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic titled ‘The board finally moved.’ Georgia has the board’s biggest change, falling from 87.2% to 85.4%, down 1.8 percentage points. Miami moves from No. 5 to No. 4 at 95.1%, while Indiana moves from No. 4 to No. 5 at 94.0%. October 2, 2026 model based on 10,000 simulations. Model probabilities, not betting odds.

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Playoff % from pack 2026-10-02T10:12:34.958Z (10,000 sims), vs prior 2026-09-30T10:13:27.125Z. Max overnight move Georgia −1.8 pp. Miami #5→#4; Indiana #4→#5. Not an official CFP projection — for entertainment & analysis. Expires on the next pack.
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Monday’s playoff board got rewritten overnight. Boise State: 17.9% → included in all 10,000 simulations Oregon: 18.4% → 38.9% Penn State: 19.2% → 2.8% Mississippi State: 7.6% → 18.5% Four teams entered. Four dropped out.
MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic titled The board reset overnight. It shows four Monday model changes: Boise State rose from 17.9% and number 19 to 100.0% and number 1, meaning it is included in all 10,000 current simulations; Oregon rose from 18.4% to 38.9%, up 20.5 percentage points and moving from number 18 to number 13; Penn State fell from 19.2% to 2.8%, down 16.4 points and moving from number 17 to number 26; Mississippi State rose from 7.6% to 18.5%, up 10.9 points. Sep. 28 model, 10,000 simulations. Model probability, not a guarantee.

ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic titled The board reset overnight. It shows four Monday model changes: Boise State rose from 17.9% and number 19 to 100.0% and number 1, meaning it is included in all 10,000 current simulations; Oregon rose from 18.4% to 38.9%, up 20.5 percentage points and moving from number 18 to number 13; Penn State fell from 19.2% to 2.8%, down 16.4 points and moving from number 17 to number 26; Mississippi State rose from 7.6% to 18.5%, up 10.9 points. Sep. 28 model, 10,000 simulations. Model probability, not a guarantee.

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Boise State is included in all 10,000 current simulations—not guaranteed anything. See the full board: marchmetrix.com/football/mac… Sep. 28 model.

MarchMetrix: Tournament Intelligence, Year-Round

Every CFP path, priced nightly. March, simulated all spring. Play against the model.

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Michigan can win a coin flip today and still be staring at a much steeper playoff climb. Iowa is 51.7% on the Saturday Four game board, Michigan 48.3%. Season-long CFP chances: Iowa 28.5%, Michigan 8.8%. Same game. A 19.7-point playoff gap.
MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic comparing Iowa at Michigan. The Week 4 game probability is Iowa 51.7% and Michigan 48.3%. The separate season-long CFP probability is Iowa 28.5%, ranked 17th on the board, and Michigan 8.8%, ranked 21st. The Sep. 26 model uses 10,000 simulations. Model probabilities, not betting odds.

ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic comparing Iowa at Michigan. The Week 4 game probability is Iowa 51.7% and Michigan 48.3%. The separate season-long CFP probability is Iowa 28.5%, ranked 17th on the board, and Michigan 8.8%, ranked 21st. The Sep. 26 model uses 10,000 simulations. Model probabilities, not betting odds.

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Test both season paths: marchmetrix.com/football/mac… Game and season-long CFP probabilities are separate measures. Sep. 26; 10,000 simulations.

MarchMetrix: Tournament Intelligence, Year-Round

Every CFP path, priced nightly. March, simulated all spring. Play against the model.

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Texas–Tennessee is almost a coin flip Saturday. The playoff swing isn’t. Texas: 74.0% CFP with a win, 44.6% with a loss. Tennessee: 44.7% with a win, 17.4% with a loss. That’s a 29.4-point swing for Texas and 27.3 for Tennessee.
MarchMetrix Playoff Machine chart for Texas at Tennessee on September 26. Game probability: Texas 50.2% and Tennessee 49.8%. Texas has a 74.0% CFP chance with a win and 44.6% with a loss, a 29.4-point swing. Tennessee has a 44.7% CFP chance with a win and 17.4% with a loss, a 27.3-point swing. September 25 model, 10,000 simulations. Conditional season outcomes, not a prediction of the game winner.

ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine chart for Texas at Tennessee on September 26. Game probability: Texas 50.2% and Tennessee 49.8%. Texas has a 74.0% CFP chance with a win and 44.6% with a loss, a 29.4-point swing. Tennessee has a 44.7% CFP chance with a win and 17.4% with a loss, a 27.3-point swing. September 25 model, 10,000 simulations. Conditional season outcomes, not a prediction of the game winner.

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Run both paths in the Playoff Machine: marchmetrix.com/football/mac… Sep. 25 model; 10,000 simulations. Conditional season outcomes—not a prediction of Saturday’s winner.

MarchMetrix: Tournament Intelligence, Year-Round

Every CFP path, priced nightly. March, simulated all spring. Play against the model.

marchmetrix.com
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USC–Oregon is a 56.2–43.8 game on our Week 4 board. Their season stakes are much farther apart. USC has a 35.3% CFP path. Oregon is at 7.4%. Same matchup, two different questions: who wins Saturday, and who still has room in the playoff race.
MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic comparing Oregon at USC. The Week 4 game probability is USC 56.2% and Oregon 43.8%. The separate season-long CFP probability is USC 35.3%, ranked 15th on the board, and Oregon 7.4%, ranked 22nd. The Sep. 24 model uses 10,000 simulations. Model probabilities, not betting odds.

ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic comparing Oregon at USC. The Week 4 game probability is USC 56.2% and Oregon 43.8%. The separate season-long CFP probability is USC 35.3%, ranked 15th on the board, and Oregon 7.4%, ranked 22nd. The Sep. 24 model uses 10,000 simulations. Model probabilities, not betting odds.

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Test both season paths: marchmetrix.com/football/mac… Game and season-long CFP probabilities are separate measures. Sep. 24; 10,000 simulations.

MarchMetrix: Tournament Intelligence, Year-Round

Every CFP path, priced nightly. March, simulated all spring. Play against the model.

marchmetrix.com
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Neyland gets the spotlight Saturday. The matchup itself is almost dead even: Texas 50.2%, Tennessee 49.8% on our Week 4 game board. But the season stakes are not: Texas sits at 60.1% to make the CFP. Tennessee is at 30.8%.
MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic comparing Texas and Tennessee. The Week 4 game probability is nearly even: Texas 50.2% and Tennessee 49.8%. The separate season-long CFP probability is farther apart: Texas 60.1% and Tennessee 30.8%. The Sep. 23 model is based on 10,000 simulations. Model probabilities, not betting odds.

ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic comparing Texas and Tennessee. The Week 4 game probability is nearly even: Texas 50.2% and Tennessee 49.8%. The separate season-long CFP probability is farther apart: Texas 60.1% and Tennessee 30.8%. The Sep. 23 model is based on 10,000 simulations. Model probabilities, not betting odds.

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Full board — test both paths: marchmetrix.com/football/mac… Game win probability and season-long CFP probability are separate model outputs. Sep. 23; 10,000 simulations.

MarchMetrix: Tournament Intelligence, Year-Round

Every CFP path, priced nightly. March, simulated all spring. Play against the model.

marchmetrix.com
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Our house‼️ #WreckEm | @TexasTech
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Ryan Day’s Tuesday press conference sounded like a reckoning. He chose to “hold the line,” wished he could’ve seen the alternative and says “hard decisions” are coming. The model barely moved: Ohio State is still No. 4 nationally with an 81.9% CFP chance.
MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic titled “The loss hit hard. The forecast barely moved.” Ohio State is No. 4 nationally with an 81.9% chance to make the College Football Playoff. The top five are Indiana 95.7%, Notre Dame 92.2%, Miami 85.0%, Ohio State 81.9%, and Texas Tech 77.1%, based on 10,000 simulations from the Sep. 16, 2026 model update.

ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic titled “The loss hit hard. The forecast barely moved.” Ohio State is No. 4 nationally with an 81.9% chance to make the College Football Playoff. The top five are Indiana 95.7%, Notre Dame 92.2%, Miami 85.0%, Ohio State 81.9%, and Texas Tech 77.1%, based on 10,000 simulations from the Sep. 16, 2026 model update.

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Ohio State’s path is still wide open. Run the scenarios in the MarchMetrix Playoff Machine: marchmetrix.com/football/mac…

MarchMetrix: Tournament Intelligence, Year-Round

Every CFP path, priced nightly. March, simulated all spring. Play against the model.

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LSU at Ole Miss is the cleanest Week 3 Playoff Machine question. Home win about 63% for Ole Miss; CFP chances nearly even (28.1% vs 27.2%). Run both paths: marchmetrix.com/football/mac…

MarchMetrix: Tournament Intelligence, Year-Round

Every CFP path, priced nightly. March, simulated all spring. Play against the model.

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Texas Tech is cheaper in Saturday Four this week—and still projects as one of the safer plays. $36 price 87.8% win probability vs. Houston 14 points if Tech wins Where are you spending the other $64?
MarchMetrix Saturday Four card for Texas Tech versus Houston. Texas Tech costs $36 of a $100 budget, has an 87.8% projected win probability, and earns 14 points for a win. The game kicks Friday, September 18 at 7:00 PM Central. Week 3 slate updated September 15, 2026.

ALT MarchMetrix Saturday Four card for Texas Tech versus Houston. Texas Tech costs $36 of a $100 budget, has an 87.8% projected win probability, and earns 14 points for a win. The game kicks Friday, September 18 at 7:00 PM Central. Week 3 slate updated September 15, 2026.

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Build your Week 3 lineup: marchmetrix.com/football/sat… Pick four teams. Name a captain. Stay under $100. Each team locks at kickoff. Texas Tech–Houston kicks Friday at 7:00 PM CT.

MarchMetrix: Tournament Intelligence, Year-Round

Every CFP path, priced nightly. March, simulated all spring. Play against the model.

marchmetrix.com
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Friday night in Lubbock: @TexasTechFB vs. @UHCougarFB
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What a Texas win over Ohio State would mean for both teams’ CFP chances marchmetrix.com/insights/tex…

What a Texas win over Ohio State would mean for both teams’ CFP chances | MarchMetrix

A Texas win raises the Longhorns’ CFP chances to 33.3%, while Ohio State stays at 84.2%. MarchMetrix compares the playoff stakes for both teams.

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