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Fascinating analysis of the current electoral landscape in the UK featuring a line from our director @AaronIftikhar - the Reform base is real and growing, presenting a challenge for both Labour and the Conservatives
Exclusive:
* Reform has a core of 1.7million voters who identify with the party. It is far more than a protest vote. If Badenoch wants to win she can’t do it by just winning back tactical voters and disenchanted Tories - she needs to go for Reform’s support directly
* Labour has endured the biggest fall ratings for any newly elected government in history, going from -26 a month after the election to -49 after six months
* Labour’s vote is vulnerable on all sides. Only two thirds of those who backed Labour in 2024 remain loyal to the party while 11% would now vote for the Liberal Democrats, 10% for Reform UK, 5% for the Greens and 4% for the Tories
* Over a quarter of Labour’s seats - just over 100 - have a majority of less than 10 per cent
* Reform was held back by the spread of its geographical support last time - 4million votes translated into just 5 seats. But that spread could now work in it’s favour and see it make breakthroughs across the country
thetimes.com/article/5f229f7…
Interesting analysis of the upcoming German election by @OwenWntr featuring some of our data! For more on the election see our recent Election Note: stackdatastrategy.com/blog/g…
How did we uncover the secrets of a great traitor? 🕵️♀️
After The Traitors final, we ran a conjoint experiment: we showed people pairs of hypothetical traitors, asked who’d be better, and repeated hundreds of times. The result? A deep dive into what viewers value most. 🤔✨
What makes a good traitor? 👀
We asked, you answered: #Traitors viewers say Deceptiveness and Charisma are the ultimate must-haves. Forget strategy—it's all about the mind games. 🕵️♂️✨
Fragmentation— on the right from Conservative to Reform, on the left from Labour to Green—is evident across all ages. The growing demand for alternatives isn’t just a youth phenomenon; it’s reshaping UK politics. 🗳️
Has Reform surged among young voters since the 2024 election? Recent YouGov polling shows a 14% lead over the Conservatives, but a closer look reveals their gains among young voters are in line with other age groups—and smaller than among the oldest.
In fact, from 2019 to 2024 Reform saw its smallest gains among young voters, with older groups driving its growth.
Reform edged out the Conservatives among 18-24s in 2024, and polling suggests they are increasing their advantage. But this is not definitive evidence that youth voters are disproportionately shifting to the anti-establishment right.
In 2024, 18-24s made up a smaller share of right-wing voters (Conservative + Reform/UKIP) than in any of the past four elections, showing no significant shift toward the right among young voters. 📊
Are young voters leading the charge for Reform? Despite reports of a rightward shift among 18-24s globally, UK polling paints a different picture. In 2024, turnout dropped, and both left and right lost ground as more young people stayed home. We dive into the evidence 👇
We've teamed up with @ACCAction to bring new insights on how climate change is shaping voter priorities in the upcoming election. See our data & analysis that could influence key decisions at the ballot box below!
NEW POLLING ➡️
We collaborated with @StackStrat and found that climate continues to be a pressing issue – especially for young and Independent voters.
In fact, 44% of Independents say they're more likely to support a candidate with a climate plan.
Explore all these results, by state or by county, at your leisure in our interactive dashboard here! stackdatastrategy.com/blog/s…
The results show that the election will likely be decided by a handful of votes in key battleground states: if Trump were to overturn Pennsylvania alone, he would be the one who wins a second term in the White House.
As covered in the Daily Mail, Stack’s latest MRP model shows Biden would narrowly win against Trump if the presidential election were held today. This poll is among the most comprehensive of the race to date and follows our first MRP of the cycle, released in November last year dailymail.co.uk/news/article…
A few months out from the European elections, FdI still holds a strong lead in our Italian EP vote intention. Interesting find is that we currently estimate IV and +E to finish just above the electoral threshold of 4%
Italy, Stack Data Strategy poll:
European Parliament Election
FdI-ECR: 27% (+21)
PD-S&D: 20% (-3)
M5S-NI: 16% (-1)
LEGA-ID: 9% (-25)
FI-EPP: 7% (-1)
IV-RE: 5% (new)
+E-RE: 4% (+1)
AVS-LEFT|G/EFA: 4%
A-RE: 3% (new)
Italexit-*: 2% (new)
UP-LEFT: 1% (new)
NM-EPP: 1% (new)
+/- vs. 2019 election
Fieldwork: 17-22 February 2024
Sample size: 944
➤ europeelects.eu/italy
Our likely voters polling for the European Parliament elections in Germany showing further decline for the AfD, potentially hinting that the party will face greater challenges in mobilising their electorate for European elections than previously thought🤔
Germany, Stack Data Strategy poll:
European Parliament election
CDU/CSU-EPP: 26% (-3)
SPD-S&D: 17% (+1)
AfD-ID: 15% (+4)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 10% (-11)
BSW~LEFT: 9% (new)
FDP-RE: 6% (+1)
FW-RE: 4% (+2)
PARTEI-NI: 3% (+1)
Tier-LEFT: 3% (+2)
LINKE-LEFT: 3% (-3)
Volt-G/EFA: 1%
+/- vs. 2019 election
Fieldwork: 17-22 February 2024
Sample size: 980
➤ europeelects.eu/germany
#Europawahl2024 #Europawahl
For the morning crowd, our US Associate Director Joe Bedell has an op-ed in today's @Telegraph. He examines what our landmark poll tells us about the three key things which the Trump campaign needs to do to win in 2024. telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11…
Also delighted to hear our polling shouted out on the latest edition of @edballs and @George_Osborne's Political Currency. Listen to their take on the race from 50:30 in the latest episode...