How did we uncover the secrets of a great traitor? 🕵️‍♀️ After The Traitors final, we ran a conjoint experiment: we showed people pairs of hypothetical traitors, asked who’d be better, and repeated hundreds of times. The result? A deep dive into what viewers value most. 🤔✨

What makes a good traitor? 👀 We asked, you answered: #Traitors viewers say Deceptiveness and Charisma are the ultimate must-haves. Forget strategy—it's all about the mind games. 🕵️‍♂️✨

Has Reform surged among young voters since the 2024 election? Recent YouGov polling shows a 14% lead over the Conservatives, but a closer look reveals their gains among young voters are in line with other age groups—and smaller than among the oldest.

In fact, from 2019 to 2024 Reform saw its smallest gains among young voters, with older groups driving its growth.

Reform edged out the Conservatives among 18-24s in 2024, and polling suggests they are increasing their advantage. But this is not definitive evidence that youth voters are disproportionately shifting to the anti-establishment right.

In 2024, 18-24s made up a smaller share of right-wing voters (Conservative + Reform/UKIP) than in any of the past four elections, showing no significant shift toward the right among young voters. 📊

Are young voters leading the charge for Reform? Despite reports of a rightward shift among 18-24s globally, UK polling paints a different picture. In 2024, turnout dropped, and both left and right lost ground as more young people stayed home. We dive into the evidence 👇

RFK Jr. would get 6.5% of the vote and, although no states change hands when he is added, Biden’s lead in key battleground states increases, particularly in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin.

The results show that the election will likely be decided by a handful of votes in key battleground states: if Trump were to overturn Pennsylvania alone, he would be the one who wins a second term in the White House.

Our latest MRP model projects 287 electoral college votes for #Biden against 251 for #Trump, with the current president leading by less than 1% in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

On Friday, Stack Associate Director Joe Bedell caught up with @freddiesayers to talk about the implications of our research for the 2024 presidential race. youtube.com/watch?v=0YBSYLjz…

Great to see a deep dive into our US Presidential MRP from @jburnmurdoch in @FT today. We find a substantial swing from Biden to Trump among black voters, and especially young black men, posing significant challenges for Democrats. ft.com/content/bf630bcc-1d58…

We also look at which candidate RFK Jr's candidacy hurts the most as well as whether an alternative Democratic candidate would improve on Joe Biden's projected performance.

We have just published a note on the five things we learned from our US MRP model and poll of 15,000 registered voters. Our blog looks behind the headlines into county-level swings and state-by-state variation.

Explore all these results, by state or by county, at your leisure in our interactive dashboard here! stackdatastrategy.com/blog/s…

As covered in POLITICO, Stack's MRP model currently shows Trump winning the presidency in 2024. This is the largest study (n=15,205) of this presidential cycle yet and the first set of MRP predictions! politico.com/newsletters/pla…

Surprisingly, understanding inflation is not associated with more accurate predictions, in a select sample of countries, those who identify the correct definition of inflation are less likely to have a correct expectation of inflation

Surprisingly, understanding inflation is not associated with more accurate predictions, in a select sample of countries, those who identify the correct definition of inflation are less likely to have a correct expectation of inflation