Small/Micro-cap Investor. Mostly value with a catalyst or special sits. Full write ups on my blog:
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Sebastian Krog retweeted
Tidewater Midstream $TWM.TO
Stock Price: CAD 24.15
Market Cap: CAD 543mm
Enterprise Value: CAD 1.12bb
EV/EBITDA (NTM): 5.3x
Given upside: 70%+
The next leg is better realized pricing: refinery contracts signed below market in an oversupplied diesel market are coming up for renewal just as supply tightens and regional construction lifts demand, supporting stronger pricing and crack spreads beyond 2026. I estimate mid-cycle EBITDA at roughly C$220M, putting shares at around 6x EV/EBITDA, and expect above-cycle earnings to persist across both conventional and renewable diesel. Roughly C$400M of the EV is debt, and paying that down could deliver more than 70% equity upside at an unchanged multiple. On top of that, I believe we will see above-cycle earnings for longer (on both sides of the business). The potential SAF project adds substantial optionality (it could ultimately be worth the entire market cap) with an investment decision targeted for Q4 2026. The key risk is that fuel margins weaken before sustained cash generation delivers the deleveraging.
Recently pitched by @SebKrog. Make sure to give him a follow
Sebastian Krog retweeted
Do this. It's a no-brainer.
I Implemented @karpathy's LLM knowledge base for stock research back in April. Six months later, I still use it every day. Here is how I have implemented it for stocks, and why it's a great fit:
treasure-hunting.co/p/how-i-…
I Implemented @karpathy's LLM knowledge base for stock research back in April. Six months later, I still use it every day. Here is how I have implemented it for stocks, and why it's a great fit:
treasure-hunting.co/p/how-i-…
Sebastian Krog retweeted
Yes, it's a UK name (LSE, liquidity OK), but this setup checks all the boxes:
✅Potential upcoming segment sell to unlock re-rating
✅Crown jewel business is probably worth the entire market cap
✅Top-line growth fueled by strong industry tailwinds
Read more here:
treasure-hunting.co/p/the-ch…
Yes, it's a UK name (LSE, liquidity OK), but this setup checks all the boxes:
✅Potential upcoming segment sell to unlock re-rating
✅Crown jewel business is probably worth the entire market cap
✅Top-line growth fueled by strong industry tailwinds
Read more here:
treasure-hunting.co/p/the-ch…
Any specific reason $HNRG is getting even more obliterated than its peers?
Yeah many. I think two main use cases, broadly speaking: First getting up to speed on a name. I have a skill that pulls recent financial data and gives me an overview of the past years and main driver.
Second, deep research and staying up to date. For that it needs as much context as possible. I have built a "second-brain" with Obsidian as output folder where everything gets saved.
Sebastian Krog retweeted
Absolute carnage throughout the defense space in public markets.
Nobody wants to own these names into/through mid-terms.
Positioning and sentiment completely bombed-out.
I think this sets up for a very interesting risk/reward after November.
