
Fish where others don't, example: 🇭🇰 , 🇸🇪 , 🇸🇬 , 🇪🇸 , 🇮🇹 CAGR +13%, Aim for margin of safety with rev growth, now also on @Healthstockpick
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Joined May 2016
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This is gold
Replying to @wilding_gyres
People think the Japanese are very efficient because of all of the cute little convenience store nonsense items they see online that are innovative, but in reality their entire society is propped up by a series of incredibly retarded rules that make doing anything a chore.
I had my own encounter with that recently and I’m not even in Japan, but I was dealing with a Japanese company called Muji. (Let me vent ffs)
I was moving and I wanted a new kitchen table. Saw one online at Muji I loved.
“You can’t buy it online. You have to go to the store.”
Weird but ok. Went to the store. Saw the table.
“May I buy this table?”
“ahhh no is not possiburu”
“what”
“oh hueheheueh aahhhh yuû musst submittu formu.”
Had to sit down with the lady as she filled out a paper order form for the table. She then had to send it to the warehouse in Japan, and the warehouse only reads these paper order forms on Fridays, for some reason.
Whatever, I’ll trust the process. After the fork is submitted I get nothing. No tracking number, no order number nada, just my receipt.
Wait 3 weeks, hear absolutely nothing about the status of my table and have no way of directly contacting the warehouse. Have to go back to the store to ask for an update.
“oh ahhhhhhhhh *weird Japanese sucking air noise they do* so sorry so sorry prease patience”
Another week goes by. Call the store again.
“ah はい ! taburu withu Nippon Express now. They will carr u soonu!”
Days later, finally get a call from Nippon Express. They had my table.
“We can deliba taburu in 2 weeks!”
“Wait… It hasn’t shipped yet?”
“No, it’s here :)”
“Here where?”
“In local warehousu (gives address that was literally 10 minutes away).”
“So you have my table here in my city, 10 minutes away from my literal house, but you can’t deliver it for two more weeks?”
“はい. Must schedule. :)”
“Can I just come get it myself? I can literally have a delivery company come get it right now.”
“いいえ Is not possiburu :(“
So I had to wait two more weeks to get the table that was around the corner.
Then, on the day of delivery, the drivers (two Japanese guys), brought the boxes into the lobby before reviewing their paperwork, only to find I may not have responded to one of the many confirmation emails they sent, so they might not be able to deliver the table because they lacked my permission to do so.
The table which was in my lobby at that very moment.
The table I had scheduled to be there.
The table I bought.
GSP retweeted
Replying to @ReturnsJourney
Well that assumes getting kicked out of major indices will have no impact on the cost of capital (discount rate in DCFs). That is not realistic. Passive is a large pool of capital and a lot of benchmark-hugging active also won't bother with Indonesia if its small and outside the benchmark.
So in that sense, it could have considerable and lasting impacts on valuations through mechanism of higher discount rates (if MSCI follows through which is not yet assured). It won't impact the numerator too much, I agree, but that's only one part of the valuation. Today's 11% sell off is consistent with a higher equity cost of capital of about 1-1.5%.
What it will do, however, is increase the return priced into stocks (the discount rate), which if you're a long term, benchmark unaware investor, will be a free lunch. If your patient you will be able to clip an additional 1-1.5% a year (on top of what was already a quite cheap market). Most investors aren't. I am, & personally was an aggressive buyer today.
GSP retweeted
1/3 On Monday I met my old friend Thomas Lehr at the Vienna tour stop of Germanys biggest independent fund advisory Flossbach von Storch. Here are the most important slides of the afternoon. The first shows the massive outperformance of the s&p vs s&p equal weight in the last
Swedish small caps continues to be real treacherous, any disappointment means -30% on the stock price. This is very similar behavior to a bear market where disappointment is punished harshly vs a bull market it would mostly be brushed over, perhaps down single digits
GSP retweeted
For various reasons, AI, life, mood I have not posted for a year, but now Im back with an idea, hope you enjoy it, as always no paywalls, link in my profile - Ak Medical $1789.HK
Arc’teryx CEO Stuart Haselden: "Exiting wholesale partners who couldn't sell the brand in a full-price, premium manner was a critical part of how we reestablished the brand... What helped unleash that new growth trajectory was taking ownership of the consumer relationship."
youtu.be/R_2Vgv-2e_w?si=z4t2…
GSP retweeted
Geely stonk back to 2017 levels, almost 10 years ago, when they started making EVs...😂
Net income back then was usd 1.6bn, today usd 2.6bn.
In between, profit went all the way down 80% as the company invested in EV tech etc and after that went back up.
Today trades at 6x LTM EBIT 8x PE (kind of multiples for legacy car companies) and 3.3% divi.
They are doing great on exports and struggling domestically.
--YTD Geely car exports are up 2.7x and now represent 35% of sales volume (and probably close to 100% of profit). But for the EU they are always a brussels tantrum away from changing economics and prospects.
--Domestic sales down 23% YTD and 20% in September
I owned BYD and Geely starting this year on the bet that domestic market would start recovering. It didn't so I keep sizing down, now almost down to 1/3.
Both stocks are down 20-25% YTD same as Chery (and the Hang Seng Tech btw).
Li Auto and Leapmotor stocks are down 30-35% YTD, Xpeng down 55%.
Great products rough stocks. For now 4% of portfolio until things improve and 0% soon if they get worse.
Amer Sports ($AS) listed in US, controlled by Chinese - Owns several hot brands:
1. Arc'teryx / Peak Performance (US$3.6bn sales)
2. Salomon / Atomic (US$3.1bn)
3. Wilson (US$1.5bn)
5 year exptected rev growth is low-double digits to mid-teens. Current growth running at 25%-ish
Walking around in HK central area, validating the latest investment thesis, Mainlander for sure are hot on the brand - $AS































