Small/Micro-cap Investor. Mostly value with a catalyst or special sits. Full write ups on my blog:
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Sebastian Krog retweeted
Tidewater Midstream $TWM.TO
Stock Price: CAD 24.15
Market Cap: CAD 543mm
Enterprise Value: CAD 1.12bb
EV/EBITDA (NTM): 5.3x
Given upside: 70%+
The next leg is better realized pricing: refinery contracts signed below market in an oversupplied diesel market are coming up for renewal just as supply tightens and regional construction lifts demand, supporting stronger pricing and crack spreads beyond 2026. I estimate mid-cycle EBITDA at roughly C$220M, putting shares at around 6x EV/EBITDA, and expect above-cycle earnings to persist across both conventional and renewable diesel. Roughly C$400M of the EV is debt, and paying that down could deliver more than 70% equity upside at an unchanged multiple. On top of that, I believe we will see above-cycle earnings for longer (on both sides of the business). The potential SAF project adds substantial optionality (it could ultimately be worth the entire market cap) with an investment decision targeted for Q4 2026. The key risk is that fuel margins weaken before sustained cash generation delivers the deleveraging.
Recently pitched by @SebKrog. Make sure to give him a follow
Sebastian Krog retweeted
Do this. It's a no-brainer.
I Implemented @karpathy's LLM knowledge base for stock research back in April. Six months later, I still use it every day. Here is how I have implemented it for stocks, and why it's a great fit:
treasure-hunting.co/p/how-i-…
Sebastian Krog retweeted
Yes, it's a UK name (LSE, liquidity OK), but this setup checks all the boxes:
✅Potential upcoming segment sell to unlock re-rating
✅Crown jewel business is probably worth the entire market cap
✅Top-line growth fueled by strong industry tailwinds
Read more here:
treasure-hunting.co/p/the-ch…
Sebastian Krog retweeted
Absolute carnage throughout the defense space in public markets.
Nobody wants to own these names into/through mid-terms.
Positioning and sentiment completely bombed-out.
I think this sets up for a very interesting risk/reward after November.
Sebastian Krog retweeted
A few top YB investors have agreed to share a paywalled pitch on one of their favorite names.
Pitches from @pernasresearch @AurelionRsch @irbezek @SebKrog and probably some Europoor trash from @david_katunaric
Sign up on the website (free) to get the email later this week
Sebastian Krog retweeted
Good reminder that Yellowbrick 2.0 is coming next week.
> 4,000+ authors tracked
> 350+ stock pitches added each week
> Returns tracked for every pitch and author (started 2024-01-01)
> Leaderboards, search/filters, custom feeds/notifications, API/MCP, and much more
> Discounts to some of the best paid publications like @pernasresearch @david_katunaric @AurelionRsch @SebKrog @irbezek @ClarkSquareCap @CEOStockWatcher (and you'll get their pitches directly in your feed)
If you are a Yellowbrick Premium sub or an author who posts pitches, DM me for early access
Sebastian Krog retweeted
Every stock pitch should be able to be boiled down to three things:
1. Consensus view
2. Your variant view
3. What event will make your variant view the consensus view.
Sebastian Krog retweeted
📗Stock Picker is officially published! lnk.to/stockpicker
The world didn't need another "invest like me" or instruction manual for successful investing. What time has proven is all great investors and stock pickers invest differently. In fact, that is what makes them great. I wrote this book to inspire and motivate you to invest like you. To do it your own way. That is my story and it can be your story too.
I also wrote the book to educate the masses on microcap investing, a space that has been largely forgotten by most of the financial industry. My mission is to pull quality investors, companies, stakeholders into microcap. That is how we make a positive impact on this investment class.
Help me spread the word. Tell a friend. Leave a positive review. Thank you. 🙏
Sebastian Krog retweeted
Also working on shareable pitch cards. Need a little work still, but coming along
@SebKrog
Sebastian Krog retweeted
I love to buy resource stocks when they make no money.
This chart is a good reminder that the mining industry is generating profits on a scale no other sector in the market can even come close to matching.
tavicosta.substack.com/p/a-r…
Sebastian Krog retweeted
New Article
The investor who naturally holds through a 70% drawdown without blinking is either disciplined or delusional. Somewhere along the way, they learned to avoid their emotions when things didn’t work out, or they had past experiences where patience got rewarded.
That lesson probably didn't come from a finance textbook. It came from life. Maybe it was in Church where you learned to fill every void with faith. That stubbornness usually came from somewhere, and in stock picking that faith can lead to 100-baggers and epic disasters.
microcapclub.com/no-one-star…
Sebastian Krog retweeted
So far, there’s been plenty of good Q2 earnings reports - a good deal of them are not even AI names. There’s plenty of value out there, across a wide range of industries. Our next webinar with @SebKrog & @majgeoinvesting - going over the best reports - might be one of our best.
Sebastian Krog retweeted
Just got Ian Cassel’s (@iancassel) book delivered.
I cannot wait to read it.
Not only is Ian a great investor. He’s a great person, father, writer, and friend.
I’m much better of a person having met him.
Thanks for making this, Ian.
Sebastian Krog retweeted
He did, in fact, pitch it weeks before.
$FF
Sebastian Krog retweeted
“I feel my success comes from my love of the markets. I am not a casual trader. It is my life.
I have a passion for trading. It is not merely a hobby or even a career choice for me.
There is no question that this is what I am supposed to do with my life.”
Ed Seykota
Sebastian Krog retweeted
While oil prices get all the headlines, there's another adjacent energy bull market still flying under the radar of most. RIN prices have reached almost their all-time high.
And one microcap is set to benefit... while the street hasn't figured it out yet.
treasure-hunting.co/p/rinsin…
