Builder confidence just hit its lowest since June 2012. NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI fell 3 points to 29 in October. Current sales 33, expectations 32, buyer traffic 18. 43% of builders cut prices (avg 6%). Housing starts tomorrow. Not a recommendation.

Looking forward to this weekend. See you all there.

Nothing beats the autumn colors on Mount Timpanogos with Deb. This mountain comes up a lot when I’m on air or at live events — the trails, the views, the energy of being up there. Grateful for moments like this one. Happy weekend all!

Tech had its worst week since June. Nasdaq -4.5%, S&P 500 -2.0%, Dow +0.7%. Value beat growth by 5+ points, and oil's back over $100. Next week the AI trade gets graded: Netflix Tue, Tesla & Meta Wed. The Fed's in blackout ahead of Oct 27–28. Not a recommendation.

Go Cougs! Great weekend to all!

Heading to Miami next weekend for our free in-person Technical Analysis & Options Strategies workshop. Fri 10/23 & Sat 10/24, 9–4:30 at the JW Marriott Turnberry in Aventura. I hope you'll join us. Register: schwab.swoogo.com/workshops-… Not a recommendation. @SchwabTrading @SchwabNetwork

Volatility woke up this week, but only a little. VIX: 14.84 last Fri, 15.27 after Tuesday's bank earnings, 16.87 on hot CPI Wednesday, 16.46 Thursday despite a hot PPI. Up 1.62 on the week, still mid-teens. How do you deal with volatility in your own portfolio? Not a recommendation.

Amazing view from our front lawn this morning! Mt Timpanogos

Crude inventories fell 8.6M barrels last week to 415.6M, 3% below the 5-yr average (EIA). 
Distillates -2.5M, now 12% below average. Gasoline +3.5M. 
Tight diesel supply fits this week's PPI, where energy jumped 10.8% m/m. Not a recommendation.

Inflation pressure showed up at both ends this week. CPI: 3.7% y/y (core 2.6%), up from 3.4% in Aug. 
PPI: +1.3% m/m, the biggest jump since Mar 2022, led by energy.
Retail sales +0.8%, but that's nominal; higher prices are doing part of the work. Not a recommendation.

Deb and I bought our season ski passes today. Hoping this is a sign of a heavy winter coming!

Promised these at the end of tonight’s Price Patterns class. Here they are. CAHOLD (Close Above the High of the Low Day): tos.mx/3Kykh6C CBLOHD (Close Below the Low of the High Day): tos.mx/2vrWp5H In thinkorswim: Setup, Open Shared Item, paste the link, Preview, Import. Rename them so you can find them later. Educational only. Scripts are not guaranteed for accuracy or timing. Not a recommendation. @SchwabNetwork @SchwabTrading #SchwabCoaching

Don't forget. Technical Analysis Virtual Workshop is live tonight at 5 p.m. ET. Session 3: Price Patterns and Risk Management. Target forecasting, entries and exits, and how a pattern is not a plan until the invalidation is on the chart. Live on thinkorswim. Still time to join. schwab.swoogo.com/tavirtualw… Educational Purposes Only; No recommendations @SchwabNetwork @SchwabTrading #SchwabCoaching

Midweek check. CPI is in. The question now is which tape wins the close. 10-year near 5.3%. S&P still working the 7,800 area. A trend without confirmation from rates is a trend you size smaller. That is process, not a call. Which one are you weighting into the close: the index, or the bond market? Not a recommendation. @ScottDurfeyCS @SchwabNetwork @SchwabTrading #SchwabCoaching

September CPI ran hotter than expected. Headline: +0.6% m/m (in line), 3.7% y/y vs 3.6% est.
Core: +0.3% m/m vs 0.2%, 2.6% y/y vs 2.5%. 10-yr up ~10 bp to ~5.3%; S&P futures -0.3%. Core is what the Fed watches, and it just got harder to ignore. Not a recommendation.