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Oil traders are increasingly pricing the battle over the Strait of Hormuz as the new normal. Futures contracts for brent crude in December 2027 are now close to $90 a barrel, the highest ever and a sharp departure from even a month ago.
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“Pay close attention to the cannibals.” - Charlie Munger
So we built a place to do exactly that.
Buyback Radar ranks every American company by how many of its own shares it has bought back since 1999. Every number comes from SEC filings, with links so you can check it yourself.
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MarketWatts retweeted
The macro repricing of energy is now underway. Check out today's move in long dated oil - that's calendar 2027 WTI. When long dated oil moves this strongly in tandem with energy equities making new ATHs, financial markets need to listen. This is not a transient spike in prompt oil. It's far more structural. Get long, buckle your seat belt, and hang on for the ride.
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The entire covid saga summed up in less than 2.5 mins.
Absolutely on the money, and hilarious AF 😭👌🏻⚡️
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In 2008, the last time rates went through the roof, an oil company that needed a deepwater rig could call a dozen drillers, and behind them sat more than a hundred rigs on order in Korea and Singapore. Tonight the hard wells get drilled by seventh generation drillships, and four of every ten of them belong to one company in a small town in Switzerland ( $RIG ) .
$NE and $SDRL own most of the rest.
When the cycle arrives it will find a market it has never seen.
Full write-up:
open.substack.com/pub/cannib…
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A couple years ago there were so many ppl on here excited about deepwater consolidation, yet now consolidation has reached its blue sky outcome and few seem to care.
I view these assets effectively as permanent holds at this point, or at the very least holds until values begin to approach replacement cost. Hard to overstate how much having 80% of supply in the hands of 3 players transforms the industry dynamics for the better. $RIG $NE $SDRL
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When the government and the media report GDP growth, they always annualize the quarterly number. So 0.5% growth during a quarter is reported as 2% annualized growth. If they did the same thing with inflation, the 0.6% rise in Sept. would be reported as 7.4% annualized inflation.
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gatorade used to be in a glass bottle...and was the ultimate hydrating beverage.
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Why isn't oil at $200? Because "someone" keeps dumping oil futures all night long, and the CFTC refuses to look into it. Heck, even when it's clear-cut insider trading, the CFTC has been told to "back off," and they did. bloomberg.com/news/features/…
Replying to @chrismartenson
If you could, is there a good tl;dr version of why the hell oil isn´t at $200 already?
Not keeping up with the day to day any longer, but given the number of moving parts currently obfuscating the view, a better vantage point would be much appreciated. 🫣
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I hope you've found this thread helpful.
Follow me @codeby_abir for more.
Like/Repost the quote below if you can:
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Amazon has officially surpassed the United States Postal Service to become the largest U.S. parcel carrier by volume. 📦
$AMZN
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Chamath says IP and software were "effectively rendered worthless" this week, after people decompiled Adobe's core products and published open-source versions, as every service goes headless
"The more important point I want to make though, is I sent this to Nick, there's been a couple things that happened in the last couple days, which I think are incredibly important."
"There have been people that decompiled the entire, the entire big five. What is the big five? Adobe has five very, very important products in their product suite. Freeberg may know them all, but I just know Photoshop. There's like a bunch of others. Okay."
"And these folks decompiled it, distilled it, and published open source versions of these things. And Rust, yeah. And I was so shocked, because I was like, hold on a second, these are like profound products that have existed and have had moats for years, and now they're just open source versions."
"And then Nikita was, I think, trolling, and he was building on that idea, and just talking about GTA, because it's about to get released. I think GTA 6 is about to come out, and we'll reconstruct this."
"Why is this important?"
"I think that IP and software was effectively rendered worthless two days ago."
"Because if you think about it, when everything is headless, so when Elon makes his services headless, Benioff made Salesforce headless a few months earlier, when all of these things are headless, and you can wrap them in agent tools, and you can connect them via MCP to other experiences, the value of IP does no longer exist in software. It doesn't exist."
"And I think that probably is the most profound implication."
"So, like, even in our business, we would argue with some of our customers all the time, because we'll say, oh, we'll build this for you, we'll own the IP. They'll say, no, we want the IP. We don't know how to negotiate it. And two days ago, I walked into the 8090 guys, I said, who cares? Who cares? But before, it was always a negotiation and a set of trade-offs. Now it's a who-cares thing, where, like, the IP is irrelevant."
"It still takes a while for the machinery of a business, and frankly the market, to understand. But that is the most important thing that happened this week in AI, in my opinion."
David Sacks says Anthropic is run by a "religious cult" and is doing the very things it says it fears most, like opening a wet lab while warning of bio risk, and that there's an argument for sending in a federal SWAT team
"But I do think that there are potential externalities from having the number one frontier model company run by a religious cult."
"So, for example, they are opening a Claude-powered wet lab in the middle of San Francisco. But at the same time, they're warning of bio risk. At the same time, they say that we have to pace the frontier, they're extending the frontier. At the same time that they are saying that there's a risk of superintelligence growing beyond our control, they're programming it to grow beyond our control."
"I think there are potentially huge externalities to the way they approach these things. And it's, like, insane that they call these decisions "safety." These are not safe decisions. These are crazy decisions, it seems to me."
"This is why I've called this a schizophrenic company, is they appear to be not only hypocritical, but they're doing the things that they say they are most afraid of."
"Like, what is going on here? This is bizarre. And I don't know where this all leads. I do think there's an argument for a federal SWAT team to come blasting in there."
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The referenced open-source Adobe alternatives were not created via decompilation. Their developer describes them as clean-room reimplementations built from public specs, observed behavior and AI assistance in Rust.
github.com/storytold/phot…
arstechnica.com/ai/2026/10/sof…
frontiernow.dev/en/resources/a…
MarketWatts retweeted
$AMZN AWS CEO just shared some important details on AI usage on the a16z podcast. The key point is that AWS is more skewed toward inference and has lower exposure to frontier labs (so a healthier, more diversified workload base). Some of his comments:
1. Compared to some other hyperscalers and neoclouds, AWS's exposure to a single frontier model provider is only in the single digits %, while some others are in the 30-60% range.
2. Most of the usage on AWS today is core compute, storage, and inference, which they believe is durable (so less training than others)
3. AWS says YES to around 60% of compute requests and is planning to buy 2M GPUs in the next couple of years.
4. I found it interesting as he mentioned during the talk that because of AWS Bedrock and the OAI partnership: "That is why you see OpenAI workloads migrating to AWS"
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Why are Euro auto brands losing to China? Well... let's look at costs, productivity, employee output, etc. Hard to compete with this.
"Using VW’s auto plants as a proxy, labor costs, labor productivity, sick leave rates, unit costs and electricity costs in its China plants are a fraction of what they are in Europe, so no one should be surprised at the market share shifts on the right. Even the imposition of 17%-35% tariffs has done little to slow European imports of Chinese EVs."
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J.P. Morgan: AI token volume on OpenRouter saw massive growth this September, surging 71% month-over-month and 30 times year-over-year, largely fueled by open-source developers. Open-weight models led the charge with an 83% monthly jump and a staggering 101x annual increase, drastically outpacing the growth of closed-weight models (which grew 39% month-over-month and 10x year-over-year).
Open models for the win...
$GOOGL $MSFT $META $AMZN $NVDA
OpenRouter LLM token volume accelerated 71% MoM and expanded 30x YoY in September 2026, driven by surging open-source developer activity, according to J.P. Morgan. Open-weight model volumes surged 83% MoM and 101x YoY, far outpacing closed-weight volume growth of 39% MoM and 10x YoY. The rapid shift highlights accelerating enterprise migration toward cost-effective open-source architectures. Closed-weight models saw their share of platform volume slip to 27% in September, down from 33% in August and 29% in July. While average catalog pricing rose 4% MoM due to new image models, total spend growth reached 28% MoM. A key operational constraint is that OpenRouter skews toward developer and agentic-coding traffic, excluding direct first-party hyperscaler API endpoints. #AIChips #Tencent Report date: 2026-09-29 · JPM









































