hello [Commodity] world @abaxx_tech @abaxx_exchange

The macro repricing of energy is now underway. Check out today's move in long dated oil - that's calendar 2027 WTI. When long dated oil moves this strongly in tandem with energy equities making new ATHs, financial markets need to listen. This is not a transient spike in prompt oil. It's far more structural. Get long, buckle your seat belt, and hang on for the ride.

You can have that one, @annmarie.  It’s a vibe contract with the vibe set in Washington. The reason it’s a vibe contract is that ICE Brent never touches a wet barrel. Instead it converges to a futures contract on Dated Bent and is cash settled, making it a derivative on a derivative. Whether Washington sold barrels is irrelevant, it is the undenied threat that matters here because it has become unpriceable risk that discourages market participants which has caused a sharp decline in open interest, creating this disconnect with reality. As we discussed earlier, the impact goes beyond pricing. Futures markets exist to help participants hedge risk and guide them on investments. When those signals become distorted, hedging becomes harder, hedgers become hesitant and physical scarcity can worsen. Washington may be focused on keeping the screen price down, but that doesn’t solve the physical shortage. It makes it worse in the end.

I joined @FerroTV and @annmarie on @Business earlier today to discuss the latest on the energy market. The global energy crisis that we’re in the midst of goes well beyond the Strait of Hormuz, where the cost of moving oil are potentially approaching $1 billion a day in additional costs. That is unsustainable. But that’s just one part of the picture - there’s disruption across the Black Sea corridor, regular strikes on Russian refining infrastructure, Houthi-inspired obstructions in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab, not to mention climate-related bottlenecks including the Rhine at historic low levels and a Panama Canal that LNGs are struggling to transit. And yet: everyone remains fixated on Brent. I call Brent a "vibe contract" because its price is increasingly disconnected from the reality of the physical energy markets. Diesel is at record highs. Gasoline prices are rising. The cost of physically delivering energy is moving higher - but Brent isn't reflecting the full extent of that disruption. Why? The answer lies within price discovery. If you're a hedger facing physical exposures that are substantially above the benchmark price of Brent, how can you accurately manage that risk? The more uncertain the market is, the more difficult it is to participate in said market, and the less confidence that is generated within the futures market. That last point is absolutely key. Futures markets are critical for the market avoiding potholes that might lie ahead. They anticipate the potholes that in turn lets traders adjust their behaviour and avoid the hazard.  If the futures market isn’t operating as it should, investment is impacted, behaviours change, people fail to price risk accurately and so they cannot anticipate the pothole - they drive straight into it. It can have profound consequences on the global market. The White House may be focused on getting through the midterms in a few weeks, but I struggle to see a straightforward resolution to addressing the reality of the market right now. Watch my discussion in full below and thanks again to the team for inviting me on. youtu.be/kqIZbRqSLuU?t=4683

Please look at this take from @AlaliQasem on @1947plc and the recent Crest report, which is very clearly laid out.

Proud to see @1947plc officially join AIM. Initiation research on 1947, by Crest Corporate Broking, titled "Shallow Water, Deep Value", has been published today. The report takes a closer look at our shallow-water Gulf strategy, 1947's incredibly strong senior leadership line-up and the company's long-term potential growth. "We believe 1947 Oil & Gas will become the dominant accumulator of producing oil assets in the shallow Gulf of America by exploiting its competitive advantages and a pronounced gap in the market." On the upside, Crest states: "Our 16.2p target price implies 75% upside, while the value of the company’s booked proven and probable (2P) reserves equates to 26.4p, implying 185% upside from the development of established reserves from existing infrastructure". You can read the report in full below.

Proud to be co-founder of @1947plc, now live on #AIM. First deal: 11 producing Gulf of America fields. US$346m 2P PV10 vs US$65m acquisition cost. Debt free, unhedged, cash flowing from day one. Mature Gulf barrels are systematically mispriced. We intend to own a lot more of them. Higher for longer. Ticker: 1947

Thanks to @BloombergTV and the @BSurveillance team for having me on today. We are dealing with two trades at the same time: scarcity and debasement. The scarcity trade is in commodities, while the debasement trade is in the value of money. CPI is scarcity in the numerator and debasement in the denominator. You’ve got commodity prices being pushed higher by shortages, while governments are simultaneously debasing the value of money. And look at the returns. The Quantix Commodity Index is up 48.5% YTD - the best-performing asset class of the year. Since we made the super cycle call in October 2020, it is up 242.2%, making commodities the best-performing asset class of the decade. This is why you need to own commodities. Watch the full interview here: bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…

Thank you to @KellyCNBC and the @CNBCTheExchange team for having me on today. The old economy is taking its revenge. We are dealing with higher structural inflation after years of underinvestment in the ability to supply and deliver hard assets. There are two trades happening at the exact same time: scarcity and debasement. They actually feed on one another. War and weather are ravaging supply, while financial repression is the road to debasement. That’s toxic. We have a fuel crisis, a food crisis and copper hitting high after high. All commodities, particularly the non-energy ones, are dirt and diesel. Diesel is now the highest-price commodity on the screen. The key point is that these pressures aren’t happening in isolation. When supply is this constrained and the currency is being debased at the same time, the inflationary impact is much bigger than the headline numbers suggest. Watch the full interview here: cnbc.com/video/2026/09/10/re…

This is an important post from my long-time colleague @CMcgarraugh about capital efficiency and why commodities play a critical role in a portfolio. Commodities are long volatility by construction. They're spot assets such that when supply is short and inventories are exhausted, price alone rations demand through volatile price spikes. Eventually these spikes hurt financial assets, which are long-duration and short volatility. This is what creates the negative correlation. And because futures are margined, not funded, every dollar of capital buys multiples of exposure. Uncorrelated volatility plus unfunded exposure is the definition of capital efficiency. The bottom line: Commodity futures add uncorrelated volatility to a portfolio, and volatility drives capital efficiency.

We’re in a critical situation right now - there’s no easy fix to a lack of refinery capacity, a lack of strategic reserves and products, and now-depleted crude reserves. A route to partial normalisation would be looking to China to release spare refining capacity, which seems to be happening, but a return to full normalisation is unlikely any time soon. This will shape the broader commodity and macro-economic outlook. All other commodities are dirt and diesel: we saw all time highs in copper yesterday, record-high diesel last week - we’re going to see more highs across the non-energy complex. Throughout all this, the market is obsessed with crude oil - but everyone reading this right now, as well as the rest of the world, mostly has exposure to the refined product: gasoline, diesel, jet fuel. That will hit the headline CPI index very soon. And we’ve not event talked about food - Ukrainian strikes in the grain corridors in the Black Sea, as well as weather-impacted crop yields has combined to create a food crisis alongside the fuel crisis - wheat, corn and other crops have risen sharply over the summer. Again, that will hit the headline inflation number. The bottom line: this is a crisis not only caused by the Strait of Hormuz. Chokepoints from the Red Sea to the Black Sea grain corridor, the Rhine River, the Russian interior, the Panama Canal - weather, war and policymaking - have combined to create a crisis that has no easy way out. The energy crisis is here: it has arrived and it’s showing in the product prices, not in crude. My interview on @CNBC Access Middle East with @dan_murphy can be watched in full below - thanks to Dan and team for inviting me on.

Copper’s record-breaking run above $14,500/ton should get everyone’s attention. It is the latest sign that the physical economy is repricing scarcity in the real world.  Yes, part of yesterday’s move reflects tariff front-running and metal being pulled into US warehouses. But that doesn’t paint the whole picture.  Metal stranded in one part of the world is unavailable to everyone outside it. Scarcity is not just about how many tonnes exist, it is about having the tonnes in the right place at the right time.  You cannot build data centres, expand grids, electrify industry or duplicate supply chains without copper. Yet supply cannot respond quickly enough because of the same constraints I have highlighted in the thread below.  This is the latest rotation of the commodity cycle. Last month it was grain. Last week it was diesel. Today it is copper.  Weather, war and policymaking are the three horsemen that have combined against underinvestment (the revenge of the old economy) to create a scarcity problem that shows no signs of being solved. The bears will say the metal exists. Fine. But if it is locked in a warehouse, it is just a pile of metal. Just two weeks ago I said the next phase of this cycle would bring “higher highs across more markets”. Copper is now doing exactly that.

Thanks to @WilfredFrost for inviting me on to his Master Investor Podcast, where I explained why I believe we are only in the second or third inning of a generational hard-asset cycle. We covered off a lot of pressing subjects, including the pros of owning gold rather than fiat currencies in the current environment, the case for the “Munificent Seven” energy majors, and why diesel and refined products are often telling a more important story than headline crude prices. We also covered agriculture, El Niño, global chokepoints and critical minerals - all of which you can listen to below. It should make for an interesting watch.

Thank you to @JoeSquawk and the @CNBC Squawk Box team for having me on this morning. Nobody consumes crude oil - refineries do. Everyone else consumes gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Crude is the noise, but products are the signal. Crude fell 9% this week on an Iran-Oman "proposed framework" for a transit corridor; diesel is still $174 a barrel against $80 crude. The framework is a joint statement between Iran and Oman, not a deal with the United States. The IRGC says the Strait stays shut until Washington accepts Tehran's conditions, and the US blockade remains in force. Five ships transited yesterday against 130 a day before the war. This is the third reopening the market has priced since June. The tankers haven't followed yet. Even if it holds, you can flush the crude out of the region but you cannot get the product out. Nobody is going to guide a full product tanker through what is still a hot conflict zone. Solving one chokepoint does not solve the problem. Hormuz is one squeeze among many that are both war-made and weather-made. Ukrainian strikes have taken out Russian refining capacity. The Black Sea grain corridor is shut with 97% of Azov–Black Sea export capacity offline, just as USDA cuts the corn crop. The Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb remain constrained. The Rhine is at a 146-year low and Panama is cutting drafts. Every other commodity is dirt plus diesel, so what happens in Hormuz shows up in the price of grain. These bottlenecks do not exist independently of one another. Years of underinvestment in refining and logistics left no spare capacity to absorb any of it. That is why gasoline, diesel and jet are far tighter than the crude price suggests. You can increase the availability of crude, but if the system cannot refine and move it into the products people actually consume, the economic pressure remains. The story around crude is immaterial when you consider what is happening at both the affordability and CPI levels. Watch the full interview below. cnbc.com/video/2026/08/26/th…

Another great discussion with @MarioNawfal. Thanks again to Mario and team for inviting me on.