Assistant Professor @Ipol_UnB || Prev: DataSci @CSMAP_NYU & Stats @LAPOP_Lab || Ph.D. @SBUPoliSci || Political Psychology & Online Behavior 🇧🇷 🇺🇸

Joined April 2010
Some personal news! I’m absolutely thrilled to share that I am joining @Ipol_UnB as an Assistant Professor of Political Behavior this Fall 2026. I’m excited to begin this new chapter and look forward to working with students, new colleagues, and practitioners in Brasília!
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Hope to see you there!
📢 Join us this Wednesday, Oct. 21, for our next #WISM! 🎤 @lschiume (University of Notre Dame) 🕚 11 a.m. CT 💻 Free & virtual via Zoom Sign up to receive the Zoom invitation and join the conversation on international survey methods! 🔗 vanderbilt.edu/cgd/workshop-…
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📢 Join us this Wednesday, Oct. 21, for our next #WISM! 🎤 @lschiume (University of Notre Dame) 🕚 11 a.m. CT 💻 Free & virtual via Zoom Sign up to receive the Zoom invitation and join the conversation on international survey methods! 🔗 vanderbilt.edu/cgd/workshop-…
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1/5 Com 7 dias para o 2º turno, como explicar uma eleição marcada pela rejeição aos dois principais candidatos, mas na qual eleitores continuam dispostos a defender um deles? A resposta está menos nas qualidades do candidato escolhido e mais nos defeitos atribuídos ao adversário
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4/5 Essa estratégia é altamente efetiva no contexto político pois: (1) alivia a necessidade de entender com profundidade todas as posições do próprio partido em temas políticas; (2) provê ao indivíduo a justificativa motivadora de que seu lado seja o “menor dos males.”
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5/5 Assim, a rejeição ao adversário ajuda a racionalizar as preferências eleitorais mesmo diante de informações negativas e avaliações menos positivas dos candidatos. O eleitor não precisa gostar de quem escolhe. Basta considerar que a outra alternativa seja bem mais pior.
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Às vésperas do segundo turno, o que pensam os brasileiros sobre a democracia? No dia 22/10 (quinta-feira) estarei na USP apresentando os novos resultados do AmericasBarometer de 2026 com foco no Brasil. Fica o convite para participar presencialmente ou online! @Ipol_Unb
🇧🇷 Ahead of a presidential runoff, what do Brazilians think about democracy? Join us Thurs., Oct. 22 at @usponline for new #AmericasBarometer findings with @RobbVidi, Marta Arretche, & Nara Pavão. 🕠 5:30 p.m. Brasília | 4:30 p.m. ET 🔴 Watch live: youtube.com/live/PSfw6ewSzvE
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New Free Systems research: AI agents can reinforce one another’s false beliefs, even when new evidence points the other way. In our experiment, giving agents a shared message board made an early misbelief persist, compared with agents working independently from the same evidence.
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What a great opportunity to take the pulse of the region! New data from @pewresearch & @LAPOP_Lab + historical dat from @RoperCenter @AmericasyMundo should come in handy.
📢CALL FOR PAPERS: Special Issue LATIN AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION TOWARDS THE UNITED STATES: Patterns, Determinants & Consequences CO-EDITORS Orlando J. Pérez @Perez1oj Dinorah Azpuru Gerardo Maldonado @yogerardomh Federico Merke Proposal deadline 1 Dec 2026 rlop.usal.es/index.php/2026/…
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New in @ForeignAffairs: Will Freeman draws on 2026 #AmericasBarometer data to examine Cuba’s deepening economic and institutional crisis. This is the first AmericasBarometer round to include Cuba, offering new insight into public opinion on the island.
“Repression is the only thing the Cuban state still does well,” writes @WillGFreeman. “This owes less to any apparent abundance of resources than to the leadership’s entirely rational unity.” foreignaffairs.com/cuba/cuba…
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At yesterday’s @VU_CGD #WISM, James Martherus (Morning Consult) tackled an increasingly important challenge for online survey research: How can we distinguish real respondents from increasingly sophisticated AI-powered bots? Watch it here! tinyurl.com/WISMs
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Dicas escrita empírica: (1) Não comece a escrever até terminar todas as tabelas e figuras... (2) O título deve ser informativo, e não tentar ser engraçado... (3) O resumo (+-150 palavras) é tipicamente a parte mais difícil da escrita de um artigo... + (4) Introdução de até 1,5p
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Good paper-writing tips from Kosuke Imai imai.fas.harvard.edu/teachin…
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Report on Democracy in Latin America The annual report of @LAPOP_Lab - sponsored by @VU_CGD and @KelloggInst - has just been released. It presents and analyzes the AmericasBarometer survey data for 2026. A great resource. Download: vanderbilt.edu/cgd/resource/…
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The 2026 Pulse of Democracy (@LAPOP_Lab's AmericasBarometer) finds ideological self-placement on the right barely moved in two decades, 31–34% for most of that span, ticking up to just 36% in 2026, even as right-wing candidates swept every competitive presidential election in the region since 2025. As I argued @wpreview in July, Latin American electorates are doing what they've done for 30 years: punishing whoever holds power when crime rises and the economy disappoints, a standing referendum on whether the government of the day delivers. The same anti-incumbent reflex that elected Fujimori, de la Espriella and Kast will turn on them the moment crime or prices move the wrong way. worldpoliticsreview.com/lati…
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New public opinion polling reveals that Cuban citizens primarily blame their government, rather than the U.S., for the island’s current economic collapse. The findings come from the 2026 AmericasBarometer, which collected public opinion data in Cuba for the first time.
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New findings from the 2026 Pulse of Democracy, published this month by Vanderbilt University’s Center for Global Democracy with the Kellogg Institute for International Studies at the University of Notre Dame. americasquarterly.org/articl…
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Marisa Abrajano, Marianna Garcia, Aaron Pope, @RobbVidi & Jonathan Nagler find significant post-Dobbs knowledge gaps: Latinos, especially foreign-born Latinos, are more likely to overestimate the strictness of their state’s abortion laws. Read more here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.…
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Did podcasts really swing young men to Trump in 2024? We assembled the data to find out, and we are presenting it at APSA this Saturday, Sept 5, 2 to 3:30pm. Long awaited working paper link also attached below! If you have seen this before, we have new data, come check it out.
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