Independent researcher of Bitcoin on-chain data from own node. Creator of Bitcoin Lab — Free Charts, API, Dashboard. Follow for original research & commentary.
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Thread with demos ↓
The Bitcoin Researcher retweeted
#Bitcoin holders just got a chance to sell the entire base at a profit. So why is most of that base still there? 🧐
BTC spent months building a huge cost-basis cluster around $61.4k–66.5k.
Then price ripped above $70k.
That gave millions of BTC sitting near breakeven something they hadn’t had for months:
an easy exit.
Some holders took it.
But the interesting part is what didn’t happen.
The dominant $61.4k–66.5k base still holds 2.59M BTC, with a 130% Base Survival Rate.
So the breakout did not trigger wholesale profit-taking.
At the same time, the supply that did move was repriced materially higher:
🔴 $63.3k–65.8k: −194K BTC
🟢 $67.8k–69.9k: +68K BTC
🟢 $71.3k–73.5k: +234K BTC
And the broader $66.5k–73.5k ownership zone expanded:
1.18M → 1.49M BTC
That’s roughly +304K BTC in just two days.
The interesting part is core ownership remained anchored below while marginal ownership reset much higher.
Behaviourally, that suggests two things may be happening at once:
- existing holders are not rushing for the exit
while
- new buyers are accepting released supply without demanding the old $60–65k discount.
That is potentially how market psychology changes from:
“I’ll buy Bitcoin if it comes back down.”
to:
“I’m willing to own Bitcoin here NOW!!!!”
⚠️ But this is only 2 days of such change.
URPD shows net redistribution, not the exact path of individual coins, so this is far too early to call a new higher base.
Now comes the real test:
Does the 2.59M BTC base remain anchored while ownership continues to build above $67k?
If yes, that would be much more meaningful than the breakout itself.
Price tells us where Bitcoin traded.
Ownership tells us where people were willing to stay.
Data by @ResearchBTCNow
#BTC #Crypto
The Bitcoin Researcher retweeted
🟠 More than a year of work. And today I’m finally ready to make it public.
This started with a simple question:
Can we look beyond Bitcoin’s price and measure what is actually happening inside concentrated pockets of cost basis?
Since then it has been a lot of coding, testing, breaking things, rebuilding them, questioning the methodology, throwing parts away, and more than once starting again from scratch.
Plenty of ups and downs.
But here we are.
I’m releasing the first public methodology paper behind Bitcoin Cost Basis Lab:
Beyond Static URPD: A Dynamic Model of Bitcoin Cost-Basis Behaviour
The idea is not to predict Bitcoin’s price.
It is to look under the hood.
Price can sit still while ownership does not.
Inside a cost-basis cluster, BTC can change hands, migrate higher or lower within the range, survive a retest, mature from STH to LTH ownership, concentrate, disperse, or begin to fail.
The framework attempts to measure that behaviour systematically through dynamic URPD clustering and a set of new cost-basis behavioural indices.
It was built from an engineering and applied-mathematics perspective, but the question behind it is ultimately about people:
How does ownership behaviour change when large groups of market participants have made decisions around the same price?
This is v0.1.
It is experimental.
It will be tested.
It will probably evolve.
And it is absolutely not a price prediction model.
But after more than a year of building it privately, I think it is finally time to open the work up.
Bitcoin Cost Basis Lab is officially live. 🧠🟠
Acknowledgement where it’s due:
I’ve learned a huge amount from @Checkonchain since his early Glassnode days, especially around realized value, holder behaviour and cost basis.
And a big thanks to Research Bitcoin Lab @ResearchBTCNow for providing access to the dataset that made it possible to actually build and test this framework on real on-chain data.
The methodology is mine, but the learning was never done in isolation.
Paper below ↓
zenodo.org/records/21888200?…
Actual insight by @BitPrintzz
Great work!
💡What happens when Bitcoin revisits the cost basis of more than 2 million BTC?
We clustered Bitcoin’s URPD, tracked the clusters through time, and backtested how they behaved when price returned to them.
Now the market is testing the most important base so far.
About 2.03M BTC sits between $61.8k and $64.7k — the largest and strongest concentration in the current structure.
But the volume alone is not the real signal.
The behaviour inside the base is.
This zone is approximately 72% STH and 28% LTH, which means a large share of the supply belongs to relatively recent buyers. These holders are more sensitive to price weakness and more likely to sell when their conviction is tested.
Price has returned to their cost basis. Losses are being realised. Yet the base has not emptied.
Its Base Survival Rate is 121.9%.
In simple terms, BSR asks:
After price revisits a cost-basis zone, how much of that base is still there?
A BSR above 100% means the zone has not merely survived. More BTC is now concentrated there than when the base originally formed.
That suggests selling is being absorbed.
The dashboard labels this base as rotating.
Rotation means the original holders are not necessarily staying. Some are exiting, but new buyers are taking the other side near the same price range. Ownership changes, while the cost-basis structure remains intact.
That is materially different from distribution.
In distribution, supply leaves the zone and the base becomes thinner.
In rotation, weak or impatient holders transfer BTC to buyers willing to defend the same area.
This is the test happening now:
Can recent buyers sell under pressure without overwhelming the demand absorbing them?
So far, the answer is yes.
The neighbouring structures reinforce the picture:
The $66.2k–$71.5k base holds about 1.51M BTC, but it is still building and has not yet faced a meaningful retest.
The older $54.4k–$60.5k base has weakened to a 65% BSR, showing that much of its supply has already migrated elsewhere.
The market is therefore not simply “holding support.”
It is actively transferring ownership inside the largest observed cost-basis base.
The bullish interpretation is that weak hands are being replaced without structural damage.
The bearish invalidation is clear: if BTC begins leaving the $61.8k–$64.7k range faster than new buyers absorb it, BSR will deteriorate and rotation will become distribution.
For now, the biggest base remains alive — and it is being tested in real time.
Data by @ResearchBTCNow
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto
The Bitcoin Researcher retweeted
💡What happens when Bitcoin revisits the cost basis of more than 2 million BTC?
We clustered Bitcoin’s URPD, tracked the clusters through time, and backtested how they behaved when price returned to them.
Now the market is testing the most important base so far.
About 2.03M BTC sits between $61.8k and $64.7k — the largest and strongest concentration in the current structure.
But the volume alone is not the real signal.
The behaviour inside the base is.
This zone is approximately 72% STH and 28% LTH, which means a large share of the supply belongs to relatively recent buyers. These holders are more sensitive to price weakness and more likely to sell when their conviction is tested.
Price has returned to their cost basis. Losses are being realised. Yet the base has not emptied.
Its Base Survival Rate is 121.9%.
In simple terms, BSR asks:
After price revisits a cost-basis zone, how much of that base is still there?
A BSR above 100% means the zone has not merely survived. More BTC is now concentrated there than when the base originally formed.
That suggests selling is being absorbed.
The dashboard labels this base as rotating.
Rotation means the original holders are not necessarily staying. Some are exiting, but new buyers are taking the other side near the same price range. Ownership changes, while the cost-basis structure remains intact.
That is materially different from distribution.
In distribution, supply leaves the zone and the base becomes thinner.
In rotation, weak or impatient holders transfer BTC to buyers willing to defend the same area.
This is the test happening now:
Can recent buyers sell under pressure without overwhelming the demand absorbing them?
So far, the answer is yes.
The neighbouring structures reinforce the picture:
The $66.2k–$71.5k base holds about 1.51M BTC, but it is still building and has not yet faced a meaningful retest.
The older $54.4k–$60.5k base has weakened to a 65% BSR, showing that much of its supply has already migrated elsewhere.
The market is therefore not simply “holding support.”
It is actively transferring ownership inside the largest observed cost-basis base.
The bullish interpretation is that weak hands are being replaced without structural damage.
The bearish invalidation is clear: if BTC begins leaving the $61.8k–$64.7k range faster than new buyers absorb it, BSR will deteriorate and rotation will become distribution.
For now, the biggest base remains alive — and it is being tested in real time.
Data by @ResearchBTCNow
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto
So much deserved! @_Checkmatey_ and @_alecdj are simply the best.
Highly recommended!👏👏👏
In April 2024, @_alecdj & I planted our flag and launched the @_checkonchain newsletter.
We had many sub-milestones, but the big one was to be the #1 paid substack in the Bitcoin category.
Very humbled and thankful for every single one of or subscribers for helping us get there
The Bitcoin Researcher retweeted
🤔 What might a #Bitcoin bottom actually look like on-chain?
Not one giant green candle.
It's the market rolling its entire cost basis upward.
Over the past week:
🔴 ~292K BTC left the $58k–61.4k cost basis.
🟢 +461.6K BTC accumulated between $61.4k–64.5k, including ~103K BTC establishing a new base in the $61.4k–62.0k range.
That's not what a market in free fall looks like.
It's what ownership transfer looks like.
🟢 Supply gets absorbed.
🟢 Cost basis migrates higher.
🟢 Early buyers realize profits.
🟢 Stronger hands gradually replace weaker ones.
Bottoms aren't confirmed by price.
They're built one ownership transfer at a time.
#BTC #Crypto #Onchain
Powered by data from @ResearchBTCNow
The Bitcoin Researcher retweeted
#Bitcoin is back testing the June capitulation zone!
In early June the distribution was following:
🟢 +$692k BTC absorbed between $58.9k–$72.8k
🔴 -$562k BTC distributed from $72.8k–$81.2k
That was the capitulation transfer.
Now the flow is smaller, but the signal is sharper:
🟢 +$265k BTC absorbed near $59.6k–$62.0k
🔴 -$232k BTC distributed from $62.0k–$89.8k
The selling pressure cluster has migrated lower!
This is not broad LTH capitulation... as the deep cost-basis supply still looks intact.
The stress is coming from recent buyers, the same layer that absorbed the June flush.
So this is the real test:
Did June build support?
Or did it just create the next supply layer?
💡Bear markets get heavy near the bottom exactly like this.
#BTC #CryptoOnchain #Crypto
🔥Powered by Data from @ResearchBTCNow
The Bitcoin Researcher retweeted
🔍 Let’s look through the lens of #Bitcoin distribution from the beginning of June to see what’s happening under the hood while price moves lower..
💡It looks like a failed breakout cohort being forced to reprice:
🔴 Outflow Range: $67.2k–$90.7k
~331k BTC moved out of this cost-basis zone.
🟢 Inflow Range: $60.8k–$67.2k
~534k BTC was absorbed into this lower zone.
📉The buyers who accepted BTC above $70k bought strength, held the pullback, and then became supply.
📈That supply was absorbed lower, building a heavier cost-basis cluster near the lows.
🔶Historically, that kind of bottom-heavy redistribution often appears in late-stage bearish phases — when weak supply is changing hands forming the bottom.
#BTC #CryptoOnchain #Crypto
Powered by Data from @ResearchBTCNow
The Bitcoin Researcher retweeted
$BTC - Supply in Loss hits a record
Only 3 times the pain has reached this level.
Something is going on with Strategy and its STRC, but everybody is waiting for the crash. Thinking about adding more here.
Source: @ResearchBTCNow👇
The Bitcoin Researcher retweeted
$BTC @ResearchBTCNow
Bitcoin, 2 on-chain metrics, bullish:
1/ Long-term holder supply (coins unmoved ~5 months) is rising.
2/ Liveliness (do old coins actually move?) is falling.
Both say the same thing: the strongest hands are sitting still — holding, not distributing👇
The Bitcoin Researcher retweeted
$BTC @ResearchBTCNow
Bitcoin long-term holders have restarted to stack on the last deep.
Good news.
Patience.
The Bitcoin Researcher retweeted
Who spent during the storm?
Bitcoin’s fall from $71K into the low $60K triggered one of the broadest redistribution events of the recent decline.
💥More than 500K BTC changed cost basis!
Let’s look under the hood.
The first pain came from price back from October 2025.
Then came the harder part: time!
Each failed bounce offered hope.
Each rejection extended the discomfort.
Eventually, some holders had spent long enough underwater to accept the loss.
Supply abandoned higher
🔴 $70.6K–$71.3K: −56K BTC
🔴 $71.3K–$72.0K: −57K BTC
🔴 $72.8K–$73.5K: −149K BTC
🔴 $73.5K–$74.2K: −39K BTC
The pattern is consistent with recent buyers capitulating after a prolonged period underwater.
But coins do not disappear.
They migrate.
Supply re-clustered lower:
🟢 $63.3K–$63.9K: +116K BTC
🟢 $63.9K–$64.5K: +50K BTC
🟢 $66.5K–$67.2K: +69K BTC
🟢 $67.2K–$67.8K: +39K BTC
🟢 $69.9K–$70.6K: +100K BTC
The clearest shift was from the $71K–$74K shelf into a new accumulation zone around $62K–$68K.
This is what a market reset looks like:
not only a drop in price, but a transfer of ownership from exhausted holders🫳 to buyers willing to absorb supply when confidence is scarce🫴!
Now the real test begins:
Can the new holders defend the shelf they just built? 🦬
Data is Driven by @ResearchBTCNow
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto
The Bitcoin Researcher retweeted
Bitcoin’s lower-range test is getting interesting. 👀
🧲The gap below we had worked as a magnet!
On the hourly frames during the drop, the $75k–$79k buckets started to capitulate. 🔴
That looks like weak hands getting flushed out.
Coins that were sitting higher in the active structure began repricing lower — not panic in isolation, but supply rotating into a new cost-basis zone.
Now the map looks different. 🟠
The low-$72k area has filled heavily, suggesting stronger hands may be starting to absorb the forced selling. 🟢
Below this zone, there is still a support shelf — and it’s not trivial. If macro pressure comes back, Bitcoin may still need to prove that shelf is real. ⚠️
For now, the structure looks like:
upper range rejection → weak hands capitulate → lower range absorption by stronger hands
The next question is simple:
Was this a healthy reset into support or just the first leg of a deeper repricing?
Let’s see what the world brings to the table. 🌍
#Bitcoin #Crypto #BTC
🔥Data is powered by @ResearchBTCNow
The Bitcoin Researcher retweeted
😫So… is Bitcoin under pressure?
Let’s break it down.
Since 15 May, BTC dropped from ~$81.3k to ~$77.6k.
On the surface, that looks weak.
And yes, there is clear stress:
🔻 Price moved lower...
🔴 Realised Profit/Loss was negative in most frames
⚠️ BTC is trading below key levels - STH cost basis and True Market Mean
🟢 But the active $76k–$82k zone still absorbed +112k BTC net
At the same time lower and upper zones thinned slightly:
🟢 Lower support zone
$66k–$71k
-22.5k BTC
🔴 Upper resistance zone
$84k–$90k
-7.4k BTC
The current trading range absorbed the supply.
That suggests while weak hands are being flushed out, demand is still stepping in around $76k–$78k.
💡The key nuance:
Demand exists here — but BTC is still trading below important behavioural levels.
Now the real question is simple:
Is $76k–$78k becoming the base for the next move higher… or just a temporary absorption shelf below STH cost basis? Time will show..
#Bitcoin #BTC #OnChain #URPD
🔥Data is powered by @ResearchBTCNow
The Bitcoin Researcher retweeted
❓ Price barely moved… so why did Bitcoin’s supply map change so much?
From Apr 18 → May 17, BTC only rose ~2.2%…
But underneath the surface, the structure shifted dramatically.
🟢 The $78k–$82k cost-basis zone absorbed ~960k BTC
🔻 Lower bands thinned
🔻 Overhead supply reduced
🔁 Coins repriced closer to spot
This is why URPD animation matters.
It doesn’t show exact coin-by-coin movement , it shows the net redistribution of supply between snapshots.
And right now, the market looks less like “nothing is happening”…
…and more like a major repricing cluster is forming around current price.
So the real question is:
🧲 Is this absorption before continuation — or is the market getting heavier right where it stands?
#Bitcoin #BTC #OnChain #URPD
Powered by Data from @ResearchBTCNow
The Bitcoin Researcher retweeted
Is the probability rising that the ~$60k bottom is already in?
Let’s look at the mechanics of the latest tiny dip into high-$ 78k / $ 79k. 👇
From 12 May → 14 May, Bitcoin didn’t break down.
It absorbed the selling pressure well & rebalanced.
Lower bands thinned:
$65k–$70k: -19,312 #BTC
$70k–$75k: -8,246 BTC
$75k–$78k: -7,716 BTC
But the current spot zone absorbed supply:
$78k–$80k: +73,387 BTC 🔥
Meanwhile, overhead barely moved:
$80k–$82k: -9,882 BTC
$82k–$85.4k: -1,812 BTC
$85.4k–$90k: -2,765 BTC
This is the key:
The dip did not create panic.
It created cost-basis migration toward spot absorbing selling pressure.
Coins are moving from lower and nearby shelves into the current range, building a thicker base around $78k–$80k.
That does not confirm expansion yet.
The $83k–$85k wall is still overhead.
But it does suggest the market is reacting to dips with absorption, not collapse.
🟢So yes, mechanically, the probability that the deeper bottom is already in is rising as dips getting bought out/absorbed.
The next test:
Can Bitcoin hold this new $78k–$80k shelf and absorb the overhead wall?
If yes, this starts looking less like a bear-market bounce…
and more like early recovery becoming real. #Bitcoin
Data is powered by @ResearchBTCNow
#Bitcoin still trading around the True Market Mean Price and Short Term Holder cost basis.
Interesting note🤓
Accumulation outweights distribution.
Live dashboard: pulse.researchbitcoin.net/
Bitcoin Hot Supply (age < 7 days) remains low, suggesting both side are on the fences.
Live chart: charts.researchbitcoin.net/?…
This is a follow up on these posts:
xitter.cf/ResearchBTCNow/status/…
xitter.cf/ResearchBTCNow/status/…
#Bitcoin is still testing 78k with a fair chance to break through. If price flips this level, next stop is likely 84/85k.
Live URPD (cost basis) chart
👉charts.researchbitcoin.net/?…
Do your own research at The Bitcoin Lab - free Charts, Dashboard and API.
researchbitcoin.net/
#Bitcoin is still testing 78k with a fair chance to break through. If price flips this level, next stop is likely 84/85k.
Live URPD (cost basis) chart
👉charts.researchbitcoin.net/?…
Do your own research at The Bitcoin Lab - free Charts, Dashboard and API.
researchbitcoin.net/
#Bitcoin Lab Pulse dashboard provides a clear view:
Price on the verge of breaking STH and True Market Price (78k), while accumulation is dominant and execution pressure is neutral.
Last week it did not look this convincing, but situation is improving.
👉pulse.researchbitcoin.net
