One of the clearest signs of Bitcoin’s growth between cycles: During the 2022 bear market lows, Realised Cap fell to ~$384B. In the 2025-26 bear market, it never even dropped below $1T. Realised Cap measures the amount of real dollars invested in BTC by pricing each coin based on when it last moved. Despite another brutal bear market, Bitcoin’s underlying capital base is now more than 2.5x larger than it was at the depths of the last one.

Short-Term BTC Holders are on the verge of entering Panic-Sell mode. Approaching good buy-the-dip conditions.

Short Term BTC Holders are holding significant paper profits right now. On avg they are up 50%. The incentive to sell is ramping up for these folks, especially as we push up to the high 80ks. It wouldn't be weird if we chopped around the 80-90k range for a while here.

Still wild to me that the bottom price range for the recent BTC bear market was the topping range of the 2021 Bull.

that’s weird cause I personally run around with a megaphone telling everyone on the street about my dark secrets

yeah exactly - by the time everyone cares, it’s the top

cat's still kicking #Bitcoin

bears tapping out + kill-shot short squeeze = big green bitcoin:native

This right here is what we want to see in a BTC bull market. Small consolidation after a big move, followed by a clean bounce off 1.0 on STH-SOPR. Polarity shift.

Bitcoin Liquidation heatmap a few hours ago when @_Checkmatey_ was putting together today's report. RIP lads.

Bitcoin Bear markets: newer buyers mostly sell at a loss (duh). Bulls: they mostly sell at a profit (duh again). We can track this with the STH-SOPR metric (realised profit/loss of new BTC buyers). After a lengthy bear market, one thing we want to see is a sustained shift back into profit dominance (green), with only brief dips into loss-taking (red). Spotting the regime shift is part of why this metric is so powerful.

bitcoin:native MVRV Top Pricing Bands as of today: 🟢 $122k 🔵 $145k 🟠 $169k 🔴 $192k

Just when you thought bitcoin:native bear markets were bad, Nike is trading like the penultimate shitcoin

I really expected Bitcoin ETF total AUM (measured in BTC) to get hit much harder during this bear.... 🟢 October 2025 peak: ~1.37M BTC 🔴 July 2026 low: ~1.20M BTC 🟠 Today: ~1.28M BTC Despite significant inflows and outflows, the overall BTC balance has been surprisingly resilient.

If bitcoin:native has entered a new bull market, the 2025–26 bear market will be BY FAR the shallowest in Bitcoin’s history. Historic drawdowns from ATH (approx): 🔴 2015: -85% 🔴 2019: -83% 🔴 2022: -75% 🟠 2026: -53% Still a brutal drawdown by normal standards. For Bitcoin though? Surprisingly mild.

Bitcoin Twitter has the wild ability to turn a 5% price move into a 14-part explanation involving global liquidity, Japan, options wizardry and moon math. Sometimes demand just exceeds supply. People want the orange coin.