@Pollitik_Lab

We report timely, politically relevant research on executive approval.

pollitik.substack.com
Joined January 2021
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  • Followers1.4K
293Media
Should be a fun election to follow! Check @Pollitik_Lab’s prediction and subscribe to their free Substack newsletter
Pollitik@Pollitik_Lab14 Nov 2025
📣📈Our updated fundamentals forecast for the #Chile 🇨🇱 presidential race is out! The first round of voting is this Sunday. Read our forecast in the 🔗 below this post! #ChileVota #UnidadPorChile #EleccionesChile
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Fundamentals #forecast for #Chile elections based on 4 decades of elections in Latin America
Pollitik@Pollitik_Lab14 Nov 2025
📣📈Our updated fundamentals forecast for the #Chile 🇨🇱 presidential race is out! The first round of voting is this Sunday. Read our forecast in the 🔗 below this post! #ChileVota #UnidadPorChile #EleccionesChile
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📣📈Our updated fundamentals forecast for the #Chile 🇨🇱 presidential race is out! The first round of voting is this Sunday. Read our forecast in the 🔗 below this post! #ChileVota #UnidadPorChile #EleccionesChile
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Big thanks to @gelliottmorris for joining us today to deliver our Fall 2025 Trajectory Talk. Follow his work @50plus1news & support his newsletter strengthinnumbers.substack.c…
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While we projected @MikieSherrill to win in #NewJersey, we undershot her vote shares by 6.8 points (the same amount as @50plus1news).
Pollitik@Pollitik_Lab3 Nov 2025
📢Our Fundamentals Forecaster is now on Substack! 📰All data are from 6 months prior to Election Day. 📅 📈No vote intentions data used, just good old fashioned fundamentals.📉 Pls like & repost. 🙏
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How did we do in #Virginia? Well...we missed high on Winsome-Earle's vote share +2.4.
Pollitik@Pollitik_Lab28 Oct 2025
Our fundametals forecast for the #Virginia governor's race is here! Our model is trained on 100s of US governors races over several decades. We predict vote shares of #GOP successor candidate @WinsomeSears. Take a look! 🔗in comment.
Pollitik's fundamentals forecast for the Virginia governors race, link in comments

ALT Pollitik's fundamentals forecast for the Virginia governors race, link in comments

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📢Our Fundamentals Forecaster is now on Substack! 📰All data are from 6 months prior to Election Day. 📅 📈No vote intentions data used, just good old fashioned fundamentals.📉 Pls like & repost. 🙏
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Great to see @Pollitik_Lab learning from the best in the biz! Thx @gelliottmorris!
Pollitik@Pollitik_Lab3 Nov 2025
We are excited for an exclusive visit from G. Elliott Morris, of Strength in Numbers & 50 Plus 1! 📈📉 @gelliottmorris @50plus1news
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How cool is this?! 😎 Thanks, @gelliottmorris, for taking the time to visit @Pollitik_Lab!
Pollitik@Pollitik_Lab3 Nov 2025
We are excited for an exclusive visit from G. Elliott Morris, of Strength in Numbers & 50 Plus 1! 📈📉 @gelliottmorris @50plus1news
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We are excited for an exclusive visit from G. Elliott Morris, of Strength in Numbers & 50 Plus 1! 📈📉 @gelliottmorris @50plus1news
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The EAD at work!
Pollitik@Pollitik_Lab29 Oct 2025
Latest #HoneymoonTracker shows mixed fortunes for new(ish) world leaders. @_CStocker holds firm🇦🇹,@Bart_DeWever is up🇧🇪, @prabowo 🇮🇩& @Jaemyung_Lee🇰🇷 lose early shine, @Claudiashein 🇲🇽 & @MarkJCarney 🇨🇦climb, @realDonaldTrump 🇺🇸rises from a low base. Take a look🔗 in comments!
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Latest #HoneymoonTracker shows mixed fortunes for new(ish) world leaders. @_CStocker holds firm🇦🇹,@Bart_DeWever is up🇧🇪, @prabowo 🇮🇩& @Jaemyung_Lee🇰🇷 lose early shine, @Claudiashein 🇲🇽 & @MarkJCarney 🇨🇦climb, @realDonaldTrump 🇺🇸rises from a low base. Take a look🔗 in comments!
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Our fundametals forecast for the #Virginia governor's race is here! Our model is trained on 100s of US governors races over several decades. We predict vote shares of #GOP successor candidate @WinsomeSears. Take a look! 🔗in comment.
Pollitik's fundamentals forecast for the Virginia governors race, link in comments

ALT Pollitik's fundamentals forecast for the Virginia governors race, link in comments

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CRISIS SPOTLIGHT: Macron vs. Hollande - Two Presidents, One Economic Reality France Fixed Jobs - but Broke its Politics open.substack.com/pub/pollit… #Macron #France #ApprovalWatch #Hollande #FrancePolitics
[Outgoing French President Francois Hollande welcomes newly elected French President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Presidential Palace on May 14, 2017, in Paris | Thierry Chesnot/Getty Images, POLITICO, April 11, 2018] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS?end=2024&locations=FR&start=1991&view=chart https://www.bva-xsight.com/sondages/observatoire-de-politique-nationale-bva-orange-rtl-fevrier-2022/ https://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2025/06/Barometre-de-confiance-politique-Toluna-Harris-Interactive-LCI_juin-2025.pdf https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Topline_Eurotrack_Jul25_w.pdf

ALT [Outgoing French President Francois Hollande welcomes newly elected French President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Presidential Palace on May 14, 2017, in Paris | Thierry Chesnot/Getty Images, POLITICO, April 11, 2018] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS?end=2024&locations=FR&start=1991&view=chart https://www.bva-xsight.com/sondages/observatoire-de-politique-nationale-bva-orange-rtl-fevrier-2022/ https://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2025/06/Barometre-de-confiance-politique-Toluna-Harris-Interactive-LCI_juin-2025.pdf https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Topline_Eurotrack_Jul25_w.pdf

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President Marcos Jr.'s Approval Continues its Decline and Shows the Unpopularity of Establishment Politics. #PhilippinePolitics #Marcos #BBM #PollsPH 🇵🇭📉
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Rate the takes: who’s hot in politics this month, who’s… not😬#BartDeWever is warming up in #Belgium while #AnthonyAlbanese in #Australia starts to cool down. Full story on our Substack in the replies. @MorningConsult @AlboMP @Bart_DeWever @ABCaustralia @vrtnws
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Subtack: pollitik.substack.com/p/hot-…
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