A.T.Kearney Partner @Kearney - Geopolitics/ Economics/ Healthcare/ Operations/ Ensuring a Better World for my Kids
Minneapolis, MN
Joined December 2013
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Per Kristian Hong retweeted
CHART OF THE DAY: The price difference between gas in Europe and Asia versus North America, reaching now a ratio of 12 times, has never been wider; not during the 2022 gas shock following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, nor in 2011-2012 after the Fukushima nuclear accident.
My @Opinion column: bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Per Kristian Hong retweeted
"The trouble with Uncle Sam’s Intel shares" washingtonpost.com/opinions/…
"Owning such a big share makes the government more inclined to side with Intel in disputes with its competitors and to give the company special favors"
Per Kristian Hong retweeted
Decades from now, we will look back on this conflict as a watershed event that fundamentally reshaped what had been bedrock principles of modern geopolitics, writes Kenneth M. Pollack. foreignpolicy.com/2026/10/19…
Per Kristian Hong retweeted
Russia lost 54,200 troops (killed or wounded) in October, the first month of the war over 50,000.
For their efforts, Russia has gained no net ground in October.
This is the most pointless war in the history of wars. Great job, Putin.
ALT Bar chart of Russian losses per month in Ukraine, Feb 2022 to Oct 2026, with October's 54,200 a record. Source: Ukraine General Staff @smirkley
Per Kristian Hong retweeted
Sweden the only country on par with the US in AI productivity
Not surprised
Per Kristian Hong retweeted
Senior assistant captain Nik Hong on the "team goal" that opened the scoring for Army and how the team carried momentum from the Quinnipiac win seven days ago into tonight's win. #GoArmy
Per Kristian Hong retweeted
Good chart.
If you look at core inflation (which strips out gas and food prices), there are some worrying trends:
1) Big rise in goods prices. This is largely driven by Trump's tariffs (big move up since 2025) and now war.
2) Service sector inflation is picking up again. Basically no improvement for a year on services.
3) Rent prices are no longer improving. Housing inflation moving sideways.
Bottom line: America's inflation problem is bigger than the war in Iran. (h/t to @NickTimiraos for the chart. I added the annotations)
Per Kristian Hong retweeted
WSJ: "The U.S. national debt reached 100% of gross domestic product for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, hitting the triple-digit mark for the first time since 1946."
And: "The outlook is rough."
wsj.com/economy/federal-debt…
Per Kristian Hong retweeted
Good @WSJ dive into the World's Dumbest Tariff:
"America Needs Canada’s Aluminum. Trump’s Tariff Exposed Just How Badly." wsj.com/business/aluminum-ta…
"Trump’s trade war has cast Canada’s aluminum smelters as the enemy—and U.S. businesses and consumers are paying a price."
Per Kristian Hong retweeted
"Whirlpool Heading for Full-Year Loss as Costs Mount and Sales Fall"
wsj.com/business/earnings/wh…
"As for prices, Whirlpool is increasing them by 7% for the fourth quarter. It claims the rest of the industry has done the same."
Per Kristian Hong retweeted
“Russia’s 2022 invasion was a geopolitical turning point akin to those the world witnessed in 1914, 1939, and 1989,” wrote @mkimmage in a 2025 essay. “Putin rewrote the rules, and he has not ceased doing so.”
foreignaffairs.com/united-st…
Per Kristian Hong retweeted
Excellent article on France by @johnauthers for @business. France got huge inflows into its debt in June on hopes oil prices would stay low. That trade has been blowing up since the Sep 10 attack on the East-West pipeline. France is an oil proxy trade...
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Per Kristian Hong retweeted
Amazing how many folks still haven't figured out that the tariffs have led Chinese goods (China increasingly exports high value components) to take a one stop flight rather than a non stop flight to the US -- the bilateral data doesn't tell us much
1/2
A simple chart that says a lot...
This trend may never reverse. It could lead to the largest economic shift and wealth transfer the world has ever seen
China’s manufacturing trade surplus with the United States has stalled and even slightly declined (index: 0.97× compared to 2019).
Meanwhile, its surplus has surged with the rest of the world:
ASEAN: 3.7×
European Union: 2.8×
Rest of the world: 2.3×
While trade with the U.S. has flatlined, China has rapidly expanded its manufacturing surplus with other major markets. This shift is redirecting trade flows toward Asia, Europe, and the broader global economy.
Additionally, this shift could also redirect trade flows toward America’s new suppliers
Source: UN Comtrade, Brookings
Per Kristian Hong retweeted
Are we mismeasuring China Shock 2.0?
👉Most comparisons focus on Chinese imports into G7 markets.
👉But in a world of relatively open trade, G7 manufacturers compete with Chinese factories at home, in China, and in third markets.
🌟So the global scale of the shock depends on China's production, not just its exports.
❗️That why it matters that China's manufacturing growth is slower today, yet the increments are much larger relative to the G7's manufacturing base.
linkedin.com/pulse/china-sho…
cc: @adam_tooze @AdamPosen @agnesbq1 @BetseyStevenson @BrankoMilan @BrookingsEcon @calculatedrisk @carmenmhainhart @CenterOnBudget @cepr_org @CER_Grant @ChadBown @ChrisGiles_ @Claudia_Sahm @D_A_Irwin @DannyQuah @DaronAcemogluMIT @delong @drodrik @elerianm @erikbryn @ezraklein @gabriel_zucman @GitaGopinath @Hugodixon @IMD_Bschool @jamescrabtree @jasonfurman @jburnmurdoch @JustinWolfers
Per Kristian Hong retweeted
Two weeks ago, an agreement was reached on trilateral “technical” talks between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine, with the UAE being discussed as a possible venue. Putin once again allowed himself to be bought off—as was obvious from the start—with sanctions relief and pressure on Ukraine.
Witkoff is a master diplomat. Giving Putin a lot for nothing. These talks won't go anywhere.
Per Kristian Hong retweeted
american attitudes toward g20 countries
president trump might want to take note of the bottom of the scale
Per Kristian Hong retweeted
The global economy remains resilient, but that resilience is becoming more fragile and more uneven. Growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, while inflation is expected to reach 4.7%, driven largely by higher energy and food prices. Read the IMF's latest analysis: imf.org/en/publications/weo/…
Per Kristian Hong retweeted
An interesting IMF chart illustrating the substantial forecast errors in global GDP growth.
“The U.S. should race to develop AI. It should race even faster to make sure humanity remains in control of it”
washingtonpost.com/opinions/…
