Wealth management. Markets since 2003. Current research S&P holdings to 1957 & Polymarket database growing @ 2.3 billion rows / day. Data psychosis.
Joined June 2009
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- Followers11.3K
- Likes42.7K
Pendulum Flow retweeted
If you’re using Polymarket’s native ref system, you’re leaving a lot of money on the table
Just look at how it compares to the program on Dub
On top of that, they’ve started running bonus programs, like a $10k prize pool for the top-performing Perps affiliates
DM me and I’ll onboard you
Pendulum Flow retweeted
a critical vulnerability was just discovered in PHP. the language that runs 80% of the internet
severity score: 9.2 out of 10. that’s about as bad as it gets
what can an attacker do with this? take full admin control of a server. steal entire databases. passwords, credit cards, payment histories. plant malware and use the server to attack other systems
but here’s the terrifying part that most people missed
the moment the patch drops tonight attackers are expected to use AI to reverse engineer what was fixed within 15 minutes
15 minutes. that’s the window between the fix going live and automated attacks launching worldwide
every online store, booking site, and corporate system running PHP that doesn’t update in those 15 minutes becomes a target
this isn’t just a developer problem. if you’ve ever signed up to a website, entered your card details, or created an account online your data is sitting on servers that might be vulnerable right now
and someone just publicly dropped the working exploit on twitter before the patch was even ready. gave every attacker on earth a head start
engineers worldwide are pulling all-nighters tonight to patch their systems before the attacks begin
change your passwords on any service that matters to you. enable 2FA everywhere. and watch out for fake “maintenance” or “password reset” emails over the next few days
the internet is about to have a very long night
Pendulum Flow retweeted
beautiful explanation. this is 100% happening. xitter.cf/sotak/status/211179423…
Pendulum Flow retweeted
Now that crime is legal I can brag about this publically
In 2021 I hit @CryptoGodJohn paid group for 6 figs by hunting the stops of their positions
I joined every single paid group on ct, mainly by using mirrors, and started tracking every single trade made on each. I quickly realized they were taking advantage of their users so I happily took advantage of them
I would use orderbook data and compare how each signal had an impact in the books
I had an automated Excel, it was fucking art with telegram notifs for every trade I should take
When I found guys who were heavily copytraded, I started wash trading and spoofing like a mfer to bring prices down and since they all used hard stop losses I would make bank on the slippage hit.
It wasn’t particularly hard since they would pick tickers with no liquidity to pump their own entries :)
shoutout @eliz883 who was by far the worst user of that predatory technique
I also made sure to hit you Eliz, in fact you were hit so often you started closing your positions 2 minutes after posting because I made your grift unprofitable past the pump and dump of your posts lol
It was the best on FTX because FTX OTC would buy my entire stack of some illiquid trash for like 4% from spot when it was literally empty and I had nuked it 20%+
Anyhow major thanks to @CryptoGodJohn
I ate real good thanks to your grifting, made more than 100k on your ass alone
I nuked you personally more than anybody else because I particularly hated how predatory you were to your users
Would be a shame if someone perpetuated what I began in 21 in your group again
I am an old man now, I retired from the shananigans
Thanks and fuck you
Pendulum Flow retweeted
Looks like Polymarket investors got SCAMMED
> In August they bought $1B at $21B valuation
> Now they can't sell even $5k at $11B valuation
that's a solid -50% in 48 days
and even at that price there are NO buyers.
A2DAO, a crypto OTC platform recently listed a sale for Polymarket equity at $11.65B valuation ($112 per share)
For the 2 days that the campaign was online only $5k worth were bought out of the $2M proposed for sale.
They sale was supposed to last for 20 days but they just removed it from the platform entirely.
Ironic.
VCs thought they were going to IPO and dump on the public, yet they are the ones that got dumped on
Pendulum Flow retweeted
BREAKING : The world's largest option exchange is entering prediction markets
Kalshi and Polymarket have a new competitor.
CBOE is partnering with Robinhood to launch prediction markets on corporate earnings.
23 companies. ZERO trading fees through 2026.
And they're regulated by the SEC.
Watch CBOE describe their strategy 👇
Pendulum Flow retweeted
Quant firms are hiring idea guys, not quants
I've been skeptical about the whole - software is commoditized, ideas are the moat argument
But I've seen first hand the best quant and technical firms in the world hire thinkers, liberal arts grads, and generalists
I predict the trend accelerates
Letter from @AQRCapital below
Pendulum Flow retweeted
The statue of Prometheus is finally finished.
It was cast in Paris, crossed the Atlantic, and was assembled at Starbase. It took us 100 days to go from nothing to this.
People of the West, we have lived through an era devoid of dreams, devoid of destiny.
But the time has come to reclaim our dream of antiquity.
In a few months, we will start building a new city. It will be the most magnificent city in all of history.
After all, the great dream of the West has always been to rebuild Rome.
Come walk beside us in this endeavor. The world is waiting.
Pendulum Flow retweeted
Must-have for anyone building bots on Polymarket
@PendulumFlow built an archive with Polymarket orderbook snapshots. The history starts from February 21, 2026
This lets you run real backtests of your strategy, check liquidity in specific markets at different time, train AI models on this data and much much more
Incredibly useful tool. We need more people like this in the ecosystem
Btw, it’s completely free and the project runs only on donations. So let’s support it, I’ll drop the link below
Pendulum Flow retweeted
🚨 Today we're exposing Car (@CarOnPolymarket)
Polymarket's most visible KOL
Still a Polymarket "community mod".
Also, the biggest extractor in the space, using:
-- Bot accounts funded by his wallet within seconds of creation
-- UMA oracle manipulation on his own bets
--Callouts, then deleted tweets
All while booking $1.5M+ in Polymarket profit
It is not AI slop. All data is verifiable and published.
Let's dive in 👇
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🛡️ FIRST, THE BADGE
Polymarket's own API, today (30 Sep 2026):
"name": "Car" · "verifiedBadge": true · "communityMod": true
Check it yourself 👉
gamma-api.polymarket.com/pub…
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🔮 THE MACHINE
In July 2024, Car's wallet sent an empty wallet 888 USDC.e.
That was the birth of what we call the "oracle wallet".
Over the next two years, Car's wallet sent 899,389 USDC.e through Polymarket's own bridge, plus 39,299 USDC.e directly.
8 more wallets belonging to Car filed 235 proposals and 45 disputes on 264 markets.
He was using them to vote for his bags
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1️⃣ "I HOLD 40K YES SHARES" · Apr 23, 2026
02:04 UTC, Car on X: "I hold 40K YES shares."
02:15, the oracle wallet proposes YES on "US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22?". Car holds 44,785 Yes.
It gets disputed within 22 seconds. UMA's voters rule it "Too Early".
02:45, flying-wheel, an account funded with $100,000 of Car's money two days earlier, starts buying the other side: $135,405 of NO.
The market resolves NO. flying-wheel cashes out $142,829.
2️⃣ HIS BEST MARKET EVER · Jun 14, 2026
"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15?"
Car buys $37,126 of Yes as the price climbs from 26¢ to 77¢.
82 seconds after his last fill, the oracle wallet proposes Yes.
Car in the comments: "Proposed to Yes. This market will resolve to Yes in about 2 hours."
Profit: +$45,376. His best market ever.
3️⃣ THE PUMP · Jul 3, 2026
"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3?" There was no meeting.
10 hours before the deadline, the oracle wallet proposes YES anyway. Car holds 2,577 Yes.
The price jumps from ~20¢ to 30-35¢. He sells every single share into the jump.
UMA: Too Early. The market resolves No.
👉 That's 3 of 280 oracle actions.
The site has 7 second-by-second replays and 100 timeline events, including:
• a correct answer the oracle wallet disputed while Car bought $98K of it
• bond money wired to him by traders holding his side
• a proposal the oracle wallet disputed itself
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🤖 THE ACCOUNTS
Car has at least 16 Polymarket accounts. They got their first dollar from Car's wallet, or from a wallet it funds, minutes after they were created.
15mmarketslol: 48 seconds. flying-wheel: 63. notworthit: 65. inshallahthisworks: 66. plzmoneyyyy: 100.
Some trade like machines: lolzzzlol made 141,555 trades; plzmoneyyyy made 6,962 in 18 hours.
Some trade with him: CarComboCup crossed Car's orders 24 times in 33 minutes and handed him exactly $1,601.50.
And the money comes home: $463,515 back to Car.
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🗣️ WHAT HE SAYS vs WHAT HE DOES
On X, he told everyone: "I am not associated with Polymarket. I am a normal trader."
He was already wearing Polymarket's badge. A month later, he announced, "I'm now the first and only verified account on @Polymarket", 16 minutes BEFORE Polymarket announced verified accounts.
In market comments, he taunted anyone who challenged his wallet's answers:
💬 "instead of disputing you could also just donate 750$ to me"
Three Yes holders later paid him exactly 187.5 each. A quarter of the bond.
On another market:
💬 "I proposed this and im gonna push this through."
When a wallet his money funds disputed a proposal, he wrote:
💬 "i didnt dispute it. but i will dispute the second one"
A trader replied: "You did. It's your address lol"
77 minutes later his wallet sent the disputing wallet $555. Just enough for another bond. It disputed the second one.
Healso ran a sponsored ad for a UMA voting pool that "resolves Polymarket disputes", while the oracle wallet held a seat on UMA's approved-proposer list.
🗑️ Then he deleted it.
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On Sep 6, after four monthly checks under UMA's own 95% accuracy bar, UMA removed the oracle wallet.
Polymarket still shows him ✅ verified and 🛡️ a community mod. He's still trading.
@Polymarket @UMAprotocol
DETAILS HERE:
car-polymarket-oracle.pages.…
Pendulum Flow retweeted
i was reading about @PendulumFlow's open order-book data feeds and realized they have a pretty direct, practical use case combined with @vatic_trading's historic btc price and target price endpoints for strategy evaluation, backtesting, and market microstructure research purposes. so i built this:
> GET /api/v1/replay/:slug
combines both into one payload: real order book (PendulumFlow) + Vatic's target price, full BTC TWAP price timeseries across the window, and Chainlink TWAP resolution, for any closed Polymarket crypto up/down market
> example: api.vatic.trading/api/v1/rep…
u can query them, they're public and unauthenticated. it's polling-based (get pending, poll again, eventually ready) since fetch time varies a lot by market.
you can also point your agent here:
> docs.vatic.trading/guides/re… and have it set up a rudimentary implementation itself. full working reference code is right there too if it just wants to build the terminal order-book animation directly.
Pendulum Flow retweeted
The bot buying and selling Mamdani 2028 on Kalshi has now stopped
But Mamdani is just the tip of the iceberg
Between February 28 and April 8, 9% of the volume on the Bitcoin year-end market was repeated sequences of equal-size buying and selling within 30s of each other
A 🧵
Pendulum Flow retweeted
Save these 5 free services before trading on Polymarket…
They can help you build, research and backtest your own trading ideas and strategies on Polymarket without risking real money.
Just describe your strategy in plain English and instantly get its pnl, win rate and all possible risks based on real historical market data.
1. Backtesting Simulator
Imagine you come up with an idea to buy the highest probability outcome in every movie market as it opens.
Instead of risking real money, you can test this strategy across all past movie markets and see how it would have performed.
This bot runs the trades for you and calculates the win rate - so you can see whether this strategy actually works.
github.com/evan-kolberg/pred…
2. Free Order Book Archive
It shows all the orders that were sitting in the order book across selected markets, at what price, in what size and how liquidity changed over time.
This archive already contains hundreds of billions of events and continues to growth every day.
archive.pendulumflow.com/
3. Poly Data
This repo lets you download the entire trade history from millions of markets directly to your computer and use it as your own local database.
It includes all wallets, prices, trade sizes and counterparties, which means you can break down any trader’s activity, study where their edge actually comes from or to vibecode your own tools on top of this data.
github.com/warproxxx/poly_da…
4. The largest public Polymarket dataset
It contains more than 100 GB of real trading data from over 1.1 billion trades.
This dataset was analyzed by 5 professors from Shanghai University.
github.com/SII-WANGZJ/Polyma…
5. Trader Strategy Analysis
This bot can analyze the trading behavior of any Polymarket trader. It looks for repeated patterns in his trades, shows which strategies he uses and helps you understand how those ideas could be adapted to your own trading.
github.com/ent0n29/polybot
All of these tools come with detailed step by step setup and usage guides in English.
Pendulum Flow retweeted
Higher dimensional objects casting shadows will forever be a favorite metaphor
Pendulum Flow retweeted
Hyperliquid will surpass Polymarket and Kalshi on prediction market volume
the new update gave HIP-4 the perfect incentives for market creators to maximized volume
To create market, a deployer must :
- own 500k $HYPE (~$40M)
- lock it for 6 months
In exchange they get :
- 500 market deployments per day
- 100 concurrent markets limit
- 50% of market fees
That means every market has an opportunity cost
They locked ~$40M for creating markets to HIP-4 so they are going to to maximize ROI.
ROI = Volume per market
Deployers will find the events with the most trading demand, recruit MMs, ensure liquidity and kill markets that don't perform.
Market creation becomes a competitive market in itself.
Kalshi/Polymarket on the other hand use a socialist method where a single company official decide which market get listed.
Wheareas @HyperliquidX can have 100s of market creators competing in real time.
I believe free market wins over socialism, that's why i'm bullish on HIP-4
Pendulum Flow retweeted
I worked closely with Pendulum while he built this out and use this data in my backtests. Its been replicating quite well.
Heavily recommend using this if you are building automated systems for prediction markets. In any other market this is a 500+ a month service
