@PHfloor

Development planning expert | Decades in the uncomfortable trenches of demography, sociology, macroeconomics, housing policy & sustainable development | Charts

Joined June 2020
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Housing starts swing wildly. Annoying I know. Linear trend always “up,” polynomial shows the cycle (better fit with data). Can we get to the mythical supply-sider green line where volatility is suppressed + more supply + more empty units...which presumably drives price⬇️?
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Arek Drozda@arekdrozda8h
What's with the obsession with “productivity improvements” in Australia right now? At best, it’s just a measure for comparison; at worst, it’s a totally useless concept that belongs in the era of Adam Smith and industrialisation. 🤔
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It's interesting that employee compensation relative to corporate profits rose when population was rising quickly from 2022-2025 and fell into late 2025 early 2026 when population was slowing. So many data points, so many ways to look at things.
Richard Dias
@RichardDias_CFA11h
Lost in the Immigration debate and the faux justification (i.e. labour shortages) is that Employee Compensation as a share of GDP continues to fall. This means employee wages, salaries, and pension contributions are shrinking relative to the economy.
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So many different ways to look at things...
Richard Dias
@RichardDias_CFA11h
Government Expenditure as a % of GDP by Country/Region.
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What's great about Alberta is home completions relative to population, after a lull in the in 2018-2021, started picking up again in 2022, the year population growth took off. "Investors" are a funny bunch.
Steve Saretsky
@SteveSaretskyOct 17
Replying to @MikePMoffatt @sarkonakj @acoyne
Absolutely wild take from Coyne. Surging rents with zero vacancy also attracted a ton of investors who then bid home prices up
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No one knows what pacing is, only that numbers between 2021-2024 wasn't. What's the right number/pace? No one knows. Immigration is an experiment.
Mikal Skuterud@mikalskuterudOct 18
Interprovincial migration needs no one’s consent. Immigration rates do, and Canada’s high rates have always rested on broad public support. Pacing intake to preserve that isn’t nativism; it’s the most durable pro-immigration position there is.
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It's "existential" folks Canada can't make enough Canadians, so we have to outsource parenting to the global top tier. Just leave Japan off the shopping list--they're shrinking faster than us. 🫠
Bruce Arthur@bruce_arthurOct 18
“It’s existential.” With no natural population growth coming, Canada needs more immigration to avoid incredible decline, which means that in addition to higher targets, we need more housing and social infrastructure. It’s as important as anything. thestar.com/opinion/canada-s…

Bruce Arthur: Canada’s immigration fight will shape the country’s future

Columnist Bruce Arthur explains why Canada needs more newcomers

thestar.com
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Correct, high immigration in Canada has caused high inflation, unemployment and home prices worldwide.
IceCap
@IceCapGlobalOct 18
Replying to @acoyne
@acoyne gaslighting on a Saturday night.
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We have a general sense of the population replacement level fertility rate. Immigration is an experiment, no one knows what the right number is or isn't. Is there technology that exists that Canada has not fully adopted but should? GDP is a measure, but doesn't tell us much.
Mikal Skuterud@mikalskuterudOct 16
As fear mongering on low birth rates and declining immigration continues to dominate the Canadian economic discourse, some important new research to contemplate. [full paper: nber.org/system/files/workin…]
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Who agrees with Mike that the law of supply and demand applies to housing, and that shutting down the economy triggers downstream chaos like labour disruptions and a scramble for housing. Surely governments can flatten economic and housing cycles.
Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅
@MikePMoffattOct 17
Replying to @acoyne
Really? You don't think adding 30,000 renters to a metro of 600,000 people in a single year might impact monthly rents? Is housing somehow immune to the laws of supply and demand?
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But it is good to see that we are somewhat back on track.
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The stunning brilliance of this thread is acknowledging people need shelter and that politicians talk out of both sides of their mouths--while completely avoiding the question of provincial jurisdiction over immigration--a hot topic in AB and QC right now. Nice!
Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅
@MikePMoffattOct 17
This is such revisionist nonsense. Back when I was at the federal cabinet retreat pleading with them to get the international student situation under control (and getting called a racist for my efforts), Alberta was in the media asking for the population to grow *faster*.
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It's true, it's that dreary in the Outer Sunset and Richmond. Many more desirable places to live in the US.
Mark R. Brown, AICP, CNU
@Car_Free_USAOct 15
80% of the San Francisco metropolitan area looks like this.
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Ontario-- with some help from BC--making Canada look bad.
Daniel Foch
@danielfochOct 16
National MLS® HPI was down 3.4% compared to September 2025, marking the first time that the year-over-year decline had grown larger since January.
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Everyone needs to thank those who were screaming from the rooftops--since early 2020 and especially during that 12-month period between 2021-2022 highlighted in the chart--to stay away from Brampton real estate. 🙏
Ben Rabidoux
@BenRabidouxOct 15
You were warned "the median price of a detached home in Brampton hit $930,000 in September, a 37.4 per cent drop from March, 2022, when median prices were $1.486 million." In Brampton, the house value decline bites hard /via @globeandmail theglobeandmail.com/real-est…

In Brampton, the house value decline bites hard

The median price of a detached home in Brampton hit $930,000 in September, dropping 37.4 per cent from March, 2022

theglobeandmail.com
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Let us know when Brampton hits bottom so we are clear to deploy our real estate dollars back into the city.
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Cool
Infodex
@infodexxOct 14
North America’s Big Three skylines.
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EVs are for other parts of the world. Not Canada.
Nicolas Fulghum
@nicolasfulghumOct 14
NEW | EV Adoption is booming around the world The Hormuz crisis once again revealed the risks of an energy system reliant on fossil fuels and countries are taking notice. Growing EV fleets have saved oil importers more than $20 billion since the start of the war.
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GFC pain in the US came in the form of falling prices nation-wide + a total collapse of the housing construction industry. Canada saw sharp price drops in about half the county post-2022 but housing construction remained strong and is at near ATHs. Very different outcomes.
Better Dwelling
@BetterDwellingOct 13
Canada’s Housing Crash Rivals US In 2008, But The Pain Is Hidden: BMO #ToRe #VanRe betterdwelling.com/canadas-h…

Canada’s Housing Crash Rivals US In 2008, But The Pain Is Hidden: BMO - Better Dwelling

Canada’s home prices fell more than 20%, but BMO says population growth may have masked the economic pain of the housing crash.

betterdwelling.com
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My economic plan: become a global reserve currency, run Mammoth deficits, and teach everyone else about good practices
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Not true. There is virtually no one who owns a home that wants to see the price drop. However, if you are a homeowner and believe home prices should fall, take it upon yourself to sell your home at below market prices. This will help drive comp prices lower in your city.
Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅
@MikePMoffattOct 13
New piece at the Star from Cara and me. Two-thirds of Canadians would prefer governments prioritize making homes less expensive than protecting property values. So why are our mayoral candidates so timid on housing? Read here: thestar.com/opinion/contribu…

Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford aren’t saying it. But even homeowners know their homes are too...

The third rail of property values may not be so untouchable.

thestar.com
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