Most people don’t yet grasp what is happening in France. Markets are pricing French sovereign debt as junk, rating agencies will eventually have to follow. This will have two major impacts: 1. Most French banks are already rated at or just below the sovereign, so a move toward junk would likely drag domestically focused lenders with it. Credit to households and firms would slow sharply, hurting the economy and widening the fiscal deficit even further, a vicious cycle. 2. For the ECB, the constraint is legal as well as financial. A fall below investment grade would force sales by ratings-bound investors while making any backstop harder to justify under current rules. The next euro crisis will begin in France. The first, which began in Greece, will feel like a walk in the park compared with what comes next.

Good Morning from #Germany, where Berlin has reason to worry about France: Paris’s budget drama is pushing the French 10yr yield premium over Bunds toward 149bps, the widest since Jan 2012. German bonds are a haven, but French fiscal turmoil is hardly good news for Germany.

Trump is attacking our jobs, driving up our costs and threatening our ability to make decisions for ourselves, in our own country, for our own people. He wants to make Canada and B.C. an extension of America. For B.C. and for Canada, this is an existential moment. We have to decide as a province how we respond, and British Columbians deserve a say. That's why today I called an election for October 24. When Trump came after Canada, I didn't flinch. We pulled American liquor off the shelves and hit back where it hurt. I'm working with the Prime Minister to hold the line, and we've got a plan to stand up to Trump, protect workers and businesses, and build a stronger B.C. that's less dependent on the U.S. It's making a difference. But the job is far from done. The conservative parties would cozy up to Trump, make cuts, raise costs and invite U.S. corporations into our health care. With Trump at our door, we cannot afford their chaos. That's the choice in front of us. Join me in standing up for Canada, in saying hell no to Donald Trump and his politics, and in building a stronger B.C. for all of us.

How many @NFL coaches wouldn’t swap their current QB for Caleb Williams right now for this season? I count Buffalo and maybe KC…that’s it..tell me I’m wrong?

BREAKING: 🇬🇧 The UK government wants the British to prepare for war — BBC The UK government wants all of it’s citizens to start preparing for severe disruption to their lives It wants them to stockpile canned food and drinking water, strengthen their civic resilience, and plan for the possibility of war

and for the clueless, here it is - right on clue...

Bonds, bonds, bonds. Suddenly everyone is interested in the bond story. Don't be shocked if long-rates reverse sharply from here. And don't be fooled by the move either.

Canadians should prepare for the inevitable "next" big thing - a discussion on potentially joining the EU. Sep 17 is the Annual Statement of the Union address for the European Union. Prime Minister Carney will be attending as a special guest, and has also been invited to speak. He is the first foreign head of govt to have ever been invited to attend or speak - it's a big deal. The media and internets will LOVE this. Get ready. It's inevitable.

*BESSENT: GOING TO SANCTION A LARGE BANK ON MONDAY