I started trading weather on @Polymarket following a significant loss due to an ambiguous rule and a UMA vote. Weather is facts. It's simple, no ambiguous rules. For a year and a half, any ambiguous situations I saw were ultimately resolved according to the rules. The market resolves according to a specific source (Wunderground in the past, now weather gov), not METAR. As long as we stick to the rules, there is no ambiguity. Until a month ago, when a new rule appeared stating that if a source publishes data that is "clearly erroneous" due to a technical error, the market can remain open for up to 7 days waiting for a correction. With my somewhat autistic brain, my immediate reflex was to wonder what is "clearly erroneous" and what isn't. I was told it was easy to tell, which left room for plenty of interpretation. But today was the first time this rule was applied. The market thought that this morning's reading in Cape Town was ''normal'' because of a thunderstorm. Except there was never a thunderstorm. @Polymarket clarified based on the truth, and the reading was considered an obvious error. Congrats to those who believed in the truth. I am happy about the precedent this will set. I think this will restore confidence in the market and bring long-term liquidity.

2 years ago, I had no idea what Discord even was. When I started trading weather back in May 2025, I caught a Discord invite dropped in the Polymarket comments. It was just a small server @strider_pm set up to degen on London and New York, the only two markets around back then. I jumped in and started trading and exchanging with guys like @Hans323 , @atteonthephone, @CUTNPASTE4 , and others. My trading leveled up big time. When weather markets started multiplying, I wanted to recreate that exact space to trade and sweat live city conditions together with other traders. That’s why I created Weather Olympus. Truly honored to see the server shouted out by @PolymarketTrade. Massive thanks to our 1500 members! 🏛️⚡️

11/ So I start buying really cheap scenarios I see as likely and underpriced. PLQ/PCQ in Richmond (loss, tight 2nd–3rd) PLQ in Saint-François (loss, 2nd) PCQ in Drummond (sold at 50¢ for a win when it was tight, thanks @Joker_Poly ) PCQ in Louis-Hébert (win) PCQ in Maskinongé (loss, 2nd) PCQ in Jean-Lesage (loss, 2nd: I thought Sol’s Option nationale past would send sovereigntists to the PQ and split their vote) Seats: PLQ 35–39 / 40–44 (win, possible double win on a recount). PQ 50–59 / 60–64 (win, same). Free brag: no market for it, but I had Julie White in Jean-Talon. Analysts called it a surprise.

9/ My ground read + the polls: the PQ still isn’t gaining any new vote in %. Undecideds are still hesitating between CAQ and PLQ. Then the CAQ starts falling. Too late. Advance voting was very heavy. By the time people voted early, the CAQ had started to slip, but not enough in the polls. Then the PLQ rises. Ground talk, a week later: “A week ago I would’ve voted CAQ. I’m voting PLQ/PCQ/QS.”

8/ Meanwhile, Milliard starts so badly that Fréchette still looks like the federalist option. Duhaime runs such a good campaign, and such good debates, that he’s clearly going to eat CAQ vote in the Quebec City region. Worst-case scenario starts to form: a perfect split of the federalist vote. PCQ and PLQ are concentrated. CAQ can still win seats if the anti-referendum strategic vote holds. But it has to exist, and it has to know where to go.

7/ Three examples. “I’m not François Legault.” Except Quebecers liked Legault. He was the reason the CAQ existed. Someone worries about their plant closing. Robotic answer: the list of business aid programs. He’s losing his job. He does not care about your programs for other companies. Talking like a robot. I’ve seen plenty of other videos where she looks authentic and comfortable. Why not in a debate?

5/ At the campaign start, I’m sitting on about 30k shares of CAQ and PLQ. Right at the start of the campaign, the timing of the tariffs lifts the CAQ. Everyone I talk to says they’re voting CAQ. A lot of them didn’t even vote CAQ in 2022. CAQ runs back to 30¢. I tried to sell a bit. Volume was way too thin for 30k shares.

3/ In the spring, PLQ ran to 30¢. I took profit and bought CAQ back at 10¢. This summer, CAQ ran to 20–24¢. I sold and bought PLQ back at 10¢. First mistake. Taking profit was right. Systematically rotating into the other federalist option was not.

2/ Starting thesis: The PQ was stuck around 30%, roughly the same as referendum support. And it doesn’t go higher. The federalist vote would eventually coalesce behind the PLQ or the CAQ. With Trump, and near-unanimous Quebec support for Mark Carney, I couldn’t see how the PQ could climb. So I bought PLQ and CAQ, each under 10¢. CAQ as low as 4¢ when Legault resigned.

In hindsight, that was good alpha.