https://xitter.cf/t.co/sjq4tjG8ww
Joined December 2024
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I love how @polymarket consistently rewards it's traders who provide the liquidity, and this doesn't even include the 20% maker rebate!
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Strong stuff
Data centers are a real issue in rural Ohio—the same communities that helped Trump win the state. With Trump openly backing data centers and Husted not really running against them, Brown has been able to seize the issue and use it against him. And it’s worth remembering that Ohio wasn’t always a one-party Senate state; before 2023, voters were sending both Republicans and Democrats (Portman and Brown) to Washington. I’m already seeing remnants of purple Ohio rearing its head again.
You never know with Trump.. but to me she seems like a total lightweight who couldnt hold a candle to Leavitt. With no leaks whatsoever the market clearly doesn't know and is starting to default to the deputy press secretary.
My election forecast model indicates that the Ohio Senate market is most mispriced of all. On top of that, Brown is a good fit for a state like Ohio and has the recognition as a former Governor. Unlike states like Texas, people in Ohio are less ideological and there is a high cross-over vote (the so called Obama - Trump voters).
Although buying into social media rumours does often not end well today proofed otherwise. Claude released Fable 5.1 and I made bank.
This is my thinking as well, Warsh boxed himself in!
@PolymarketTrade
@Polymarket
FWIW Kevin Warsh did not in anyway at all promise a rate hike in September and saying so is naive and wrong. However, he does seem to have boxed himself into a rate hike IF cpi and ppi for September is hot. Weak jobs IF that happens will not provide adequate cover for a pause if inflation is smoking hot.
Basically what changed is hot inflation data and his own boxing himself in forces him to hike or lose any credibility at all. BUT does not in anyway guarantee a hike if data cooperates. Does your furu claiming 90% certainty of a hike know the CPI?
Wild weather trade on Polymarket today.
Trader huskyvs just turned a 0.2¢ longshot into +$9,517 betting Miami's high temp would stay in the 84-85°F range.
A storm rolled in and completely capped the heat. A bonder totally miscalculated the outcome because they relied way too much on the early daily predictions instead of the actual data once the storm hit.
500x return on weather.
Contemplating taking a NO position on Darline Graham. The "I am not a politician" argument falls completely flat when your only qualification is your last name and a sympathy appointment because of your brother's death!
polymarket.com/event/south-c…
Will Scott Jennings be the next press secretary?
I have a significant position that he will since there is no serious competition and the price was heavily suppressed by 'sharps' operating on their narrow mental framework Trump will only consider a hot woman.
polymarket.com/event/who-wil…
Let’s talk about the state of weather markets on @Polymarket and a suggestion to make it better.
One year ago, we only had two stations: London and New York. The flow during the day was super interesting, driven mainly by manual traders interpreting live signals combined with forecasts.
At the beginning of this year, Polymarket expanded to 50+ stations.I get Polymarket's idea and generally supported it since I believed that increased scale could eventually grow the weather markets at large.
The result after half a year? Most of the volume now concentrates pre-day with bots modeling out the predictions on stations. Intraday volume got heavily diluted over too many markets, causing a downward spiral for this trading style.
The sad part of this is that manual intraday traders are what make these markets the most fun and engaging. The dramatic mid-day flips and the players correctly interpreting live signals in real time are what give this space life.
My suggestion to this challenge to @Polymarket is as follows:
Keep the 50+ stations, but prominently display a list of say "10 Majors" (e.g., NY, London, Seoul, Hong Kong, etc) on the website. By visually highlighting the high-volume markets, manual traders know exactly where to concentrate their liquidity and trading during the day and will not walk away frustrated because they can't get the trades they want.
Thank for your help on this, and let's make weather markets great again @Polymarket.