started in january 2025 with $741, not a meteorologist
Joined September 2025
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‼️i was just made aware that a twitter profile is impersonating me
please be careful, i will never ask you for money or anything similar
if you see anything suspicious, please report the account ‼️
Polymarket has now clarified the market, declaring the 19C reading erroneous and voiding it.
When Atte posted about it, the 16C bracket, which will now most likely win, was trading at around 20-35c.
It turns out the 13C -> 19C temperature spike in Cape Town (FACT) was actually an observation from a completely different airport (FABL) !! 🤯
The african met accidentally marked the wrong airport in the report, and after realizing their mistake, they sent a new report with identical content and fixed airport code. But the old report was never COR'rected!
Identical SPECI reports, both from Polymarket's resolution website weather.gov:
SPECI FACT 180528Z 05004KT 9999 TS FEW050CB 19/12 Q1019 NOSIG
SPECI FABL 180528Z 05004KT 9999 TS FEW050CB 19/12 Q1019 NOSIG
Will this count as a "clearly erroneous" observation that will be excluded according to rules? In that case 16C will win. Or will this count as "not clearly enough" erroneous? In that case 19C will win.
Full disclosure: I am "YES 16C" but I think it's too late to enter this market if you are thinking about it. Don't copy me. Don't buy my bags. I don't know how it will resolve.
Hans323 retweeted
I was checking the current state of todays temperature market for Cape Town (FACT).
It looks like there was some outlier report in the morning. I was just checking my dashboard, none of the PWS were indicating such an insane jump, especially with that strong. Neither thunderstorms nearby according to lightning radar reported it.
If we compare the SPECI of FACT and of another airport (FABL - 900km away) they had identical SPECI reports:
SPECI FACT 180528Z 05004KT 9999 TS FEW050CB 19/12 Q1019 NOSIG
SPECI FABL 180528Z 05004KT 9999 TS FEW050CB 19/12 Q1019 NOSIG
I have a strong feeling someone mixed something up. I am invested in 19C NO. No financial advice.
Hans323 retweeted
It turns out the 13C -> 19C temperature spike in Cape Town (FACT) was actually an observation from a completely different airport (FABL) !! 🤯
The african met accidentally marked the wrong airport in the report, and after realizing their mistake, they sent a new report with identical content and fixed airport code. But the old report was never COR'rected!
Identical SPECI reports, both from Polymarket's resolution website weather.gov:
SPECI FACT 180528Z 05004KT 9999 TS FEW050CB 19/12 Q1019 NOSIG
SPECI FABL 180528Z 05004KT 9999 TS FEW050CB 19/12 Q1019 NOSIG
Will this count as a "clearly erroneous" observation that will be excluded according to rules? In that case 16C will win. Or will this count as "not clearly enough" erroneous? In that case 19C will win.
Full disclosure: I am "YES 16C" but I think it's too late to enter this market if you are thinking about it. Don't copy me. Don't buy my bags. I don't know how it will resolve.
i will be taking part in the Hive World Cup, i also saw that some other weather traders have already joined, so maybe one of us can win it (although I doubt it will be me)
anyone can take part by clicking the link in the quoted tweet and following the steps
WE’RE RUNNING IT BACK
THE HIVE WORLD CUP
$10,000 in prizes. Free entry. Begins June 12
Your chance to prove yourself
all rewards, the whole $20 are sponsored, so for May 24, polymarket itself has delegated $0 worth of rewards across around 50–60 markets
idk who had the genius idea to create so many cities and then provide absolutely no rewards
rewards wont fully fix the problem, but they would definitely help
@Polymarket @kea1on
Are there any specific reasons why almost all rewards for weather markets disappeared?
We now have 45+ temperature markets live, but with almost no liquidity rewards, orderbooks has become extremely thin. Some markets have 20c+ (sometimes even 50c+) spreads, making them barely tradable.
I know weather markets are a niche, but it would be great to see consistent rewards return to attract traders and improve liquidity. We are also paying good amount of fees, so a more stable reward structure would make a big difference.
As the screenshot shows, today’s rewards are very thin, and some are even user-sponsored. @protrade47 already raised this in one of his posts, and right now this is the biggest pain point for weather traders.
Hans323 retweeted
@Polymarket @kea1on
Are there any specific reasons why almost all rewards for weather markets disappeared?
We now have 45+ temperature markets live, but with almost no liquidity rewards, orderbooks has become extremely thin. Some markets have 20c+ (sometimes even 50c+) spreads, making them barely tradable.
I know weather markets are a niche, but it would be great to see consistent rewards return to attract traders and improve liquidity. We are also paying good amount of fees, so a more stable reward structure would make a big difference.
As the screenshot shows, today’s rewards are very thin, and some are even user-sponsored. @protrade47 already raised this in one of his posts, and right now this is the biggest pain point for weather traders.
May 20 and 21 temp markets have been opened but with a twist,
almost half the cities for May 20 show up as "ended" so they cant be found via the search bar, Istanbul has this problem for May 20 and 21,
refunds have been issued but only partially, polymarket said they are currently working on paying out the remaining funds
polymarket indeed reopened a few cities, but after around 5 minutes they archived them again,
also it seems like Tornto was broken and only had one bracket
according to LeGate, both the refunds and the markets coming back online will happen today,
i somehow doubt that the refund part is true, but i would be happy to be wrong
Hans323 retweeted
Discover the story of @Hans323 the Polymarket trader, expert in weather markets!
With over 50K in profits, kind and professional!🥸
There’s also a interview with him, where he shared a great advice! very important🧐
Polynoob thanks him 🤗
Find more👇
polynoob.com/hans323/
ALT https://polynoob.com/hans323/
Hans323 retweeted
Polyslop poster asks AI for "easiest" city on Poly. Even though there are 50 cities on Poly and you could get something reasonable just by randomly guessing, AI be like:
1. Seoul
2. Shenzhen
3. Lagos
💀💀💀
CITIES WHERE WEATHER IS EASIEST TO PREDICT ON POLYMARKET
Flat terrain. Single climate zone. Models agree
Seoul
Continental monsoon with sharp distinct seasons. Winter is cold, stable, and highly tradeable.
>> Model: ECMWF top skill over Korean Peninsula, especially November through February
Atlanta
Mild subtropical climate, no ocean chaos. Pressure systems change slowly, fronts arrive on schedule.
>> Model: NAM 3km grid over CONUS, updates 4x//day, best for Southeast US temperature
Dallas
Open plains, zero orography. Summer heat is stable and highly predictable.
>> Model: GFS 13km grid, strong over flat terrain states, free and updates 4x//day
Shanghai
Flat, single climate regime. Winter and summer are stable transition seasons add some noise.
>> Model: ECMWF consistently outperforms GFS over East Asia
Single regime, slow systems, no orographic chaos that's the formula, everything else is noise
insane 1m followers, 5k likes, and almost everything said in this tweet is incorrect, idk how much that says about the quality of his other tweets
This quoted post is unavailable.
Regarding the Paris temperature market incidents, people mention two suspected instances of manipulation on April 6 and April 15.
April 6: The temperature suddenly spiked in the evening and fluctuated up and down for over an hour. This spike resulted in the account “Kyrgyzhydromet” making $16.5k. The incident was discussed in a French meteorological forum and attributed to maintenance. I believe no manipulation occurred that day. The winning account is actually my alt, I noticed the temperature fluctuations early and bought undervalued shares before others reacted.
April 15: The temperature again spiked suddenly, but only for a single reading before immediately dropping back to its previous level. The account “xX25Xx” made $21k. Unlike April 6, these purchases were made well before the spike. This, combined with the nature of the spike, leads me and many others to believe that manipulation may indeed have taken place.
A Polymarket staff member has confirmed that the current airport will be replaced with another one.
If manipulation did occur, I hope the French authorities investigate the matter and identify those responsible.
Attached below is an image of the spike on April 15.
