America at 250, Part V - July ‘26 House Predictions These are NOT safe/likely/lean/tilt ratings. They’re based on the predicted vote shares the winning party will receive. Based on a GCB of Dem +5.5, Dems are set to gain only modestly in a sort of “reverse” ‘22 scenario. This is largely due to GOP gains from mid-decade redistricting. BUT, remember that many seats don’t become truly competitive until closer to Election Day, so definitely keep an eye on those light pink/blue seats, or even the slightly darker ones, which could easily turn into sleepers. As usual, a like, repost and/or follow is always appreciated! 🥹 Happy 4th everyone and a Happy 250th Birthday to the USA!! 🇺🇸 🎆💙🎉 Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps

- Senate: 50/50 - House: Dems 230 - Govs: Dems +2

- Lib ET reaction to Peltola’s comments: Eh, no biggie. - Con ET reaction: How horrible! Unfit to serve! - Lib ET on Don Young’s 2013 comments 👇🏻: How horrible! Unfit to serve! - Con ET reaction: Eh, no biggie. Ah, partisan politics. 🤷🏻‍♂️

It’s hard to say which way the AK will fall in the end. AK is notoriously hard to poll and betting markets will fluctuate a lot partly due to that fact. That said, it’s still fun that we have a race where both candidates have beaten a Begich (and Peltola also lost to one).

Well, took some losses in the House in 2014, but at least they held up okay in the Senate. Am I right? 🤔

Interesting margin for this poll. Déjà vu? 😹

So by the beginning of next year, we may have DSA members running America’s two biggest cities…Do with this info what you will. Opinions will vary.

The last time Dems had 240+ seats was when they won 257 in the 2008 wave. This would be extremely tough to replicate nowadays with polarization, trends and gerrymandering. For example, Dems aren’t getting 14 seats from these four Southern states…

That new IA poll showing Turek leading by 8 is getting plenty of attention, and betting markets are reflecting it. We’re all right to be *deeply* skeptical after the ‘24 Selzer debacle, but we have to remember we’ve seen crazier transformations over two year periods… 👇🏻👇🏻

Alaska has always been, and always will be, a blue state. 🫡🇺🇸💙

With Lauren Boebert’s recent…issues, I thought I’d do a slightly deeper dive into the last time Dems won her CD: the ‘08 wave. Notice that while the CD still included the Eastern Slope, it also included Larimer and a small portion of Boulder in this court-drawn map. Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps

Interestingly, the last time there was a House wave election (2018), Dems won 235 seats exactly. They did this by winning swing seats, suburban seats that shifted left in the Trump era and a few sleepers (OK-05, SC-01, etc.). The Senate was a different story…

You need to take RCP’s “ratings” with a grain of salt because they’re not traditional ratings. RCP is a polling aggregator which can be skewed by a couple really horrible, low-quality polls, hence why they had states like CO & WA as toss-ups in ‘22.

Kansas’s red status was always temporary. 🫡🇺🇸🤭

TN shouldn’t have gerrymandered their House map. Now they’re getting this come November. You were warned Tennessee. You were warned…

RIP to former Senator Jon Kyl, who won his last election in the Dem wave of 2006. He briefly returned to the Senate in 2018 to replace the late John McCain, thereby holding both AZ’s Senate seats.

KPOW is now saying Dems are slightly favored to gain control of Congress and the presidency for a few reasons: Trump’s low approvals, Dems doing well in a slew of Senate polls (some exceptions obviously) and of course the GCB, which has moved markedly towards Dems recently. As we know though, things can change quickly in politics…