Building FiMod to fix how real estate deals get underwritten. Dashboard, docs, comps, models, all in one place. UK first, US next. Beta coming soon!

London, England
Joined June 2011
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Your First Home's household income cap gets set in the Budget on 28 October. The old First Homes scheme used £80k, Help to Buy had no cap at all. Where would you put it?
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With 2.5% down and a 20% equity loan, a new build only has to lose about 3% of its value before the buyer is in negative equity. Help to Buy's 5% deposit gave you roughly double that. How confident is everyone that new builds hold their value on resale?
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Reuters poll of property analysts has UK house prices up 1.3% this year and 2% in 2027. Anyone taking the over?
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Replying to @peterproperty @FT
Vistry leading it is some turnaround for a week. Last Thursday it posted a £661m first half loss, said it was cutting regions from 25 to 12 and pulling out of private sales in the South East
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The 1% ratio gets squeezed from both ends. Average service charge up 32.6% since 2020 to £2,405 a year, while flats across most of the country are still worth less than in 2019. Share over the line went from 29% to 37% in five years
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Replying to @FT
2.5% deposit plus a 20% equity loan means the buyer's actual mortgage is 77.5% LTV. A first time buyer with almost no savings gets priced like someone with a 22.5% deposit, that's the bit lenders will like
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ONS has UK private rents up 3.8% on the year to £1,400 a month. Zoopla's index has them up 2.6%. Landlords and tenants, which one looks more like your last renewal?
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A home listed today takes 64 days on average to find a buyer and another 150 to complete, per Rightmove. So on the averages you'd be moving in late April 2027. What's the longest completion you've sat through?
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Only 42% of homes listed in London actually find a buyer right now. Scotland's at 91%, UK average 61%, per Rightmove's September numbers. Anyone in London agency seeing better than that on their own books?
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Replying to @moving_charlie
Curious how big the underlying dataset actually is and whether an API is in the works. We’d love to explore plugging into it directly for FiMod
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Stamp duty and council tax reform are both ruled out for this Budget specifically, per the PM's own comments in July. The property tax story this time round is mansion tax and landlord income tax, not a structural rewrite
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Burnham has spent years arguing for land value tax and scrapping stamp duty. He's ruled out touching either in this Budget. Worth watching whether that changes once one is actually written and not just campaigned on
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Replying to @FinanceTiger
Solid thread. Worth adding on the September uptick, buyer demand rose 5% in the first week versus a usual 0.4% seasonal move, but that only narrows last year's gap from 14% behind to 9% behind, it's a bounce off a weak base not a reversal, but that doesn't mean the market won't recover
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What's actually confirmed for the Budget versus what's rumour: mansion tax and landlord tax rises are locked in. CGT alignment with income tax, a lower mansion tax threshold, inheritance tax reform, all still just speculation
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Autumn Budget lands 28 October, just over 5 weeks out. property income tax for landlords is already confirmed to rise from April 2027, everything else is still speculation
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1.8 million UK fixed rate mortgages are due to end this year. Gilt yields just hit their highest since 2007 and lenders are repricing upward because of it
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Sixth hold in a row now. the committee's hawkish minority has grown through the year, from 1 dissent in April to 3 in July and again in September
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Replying to @apostolos_kl
Austria's the one to watch on this chart. Expectations sitting up near the Netherlands but actual price growth barely above zero. Is this due to local policies on rent growth? Because I'm sure the demand is there and supply is limited...
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