Husband 43 yrs, 3 ch, 11 gch, Christ follower. Ag Biz for 43 yrs, Markets for 43 yrs, CBOT Mem. Futures/options trading has significant risk of loss.
Peoria, IL
Joined August 2019
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Darren Frye retweeted
Russia’s Wheat Production Is Facing a Structural Threat! 🌾
Russia’s wheat area has declined for 4 consecutive seasons as farmers abandon low-profit wheat for more lucrative crops.
• Winter wheat: 17.8 mln ha (2021) → 16.1 mln ha (2026)
• Spring wheat: 10.2 mln ha → 8.9 mln ha
• Total wheat area lost: 3 mln ha
• Corn area: 5.8 → 7.3 mln ha
• Sunflower area: 4.2 → 5.4 mln ha
• Pulses area: 1.1 → 1.6 mln ha
Corn and sunflower reportedly offer 40–60% higher profitability, accelerating the shift away from wheat.
⚠️ The warning is stark: potential wheat production losses of 14–18 million tonnes in MY 2027/28, including possible winter crop damage.
Russian domestic wheat prices could climb to RUB 13,500–17,000/t ($162–204/t) as tightening supply forces a market reassessment.
The deeper risk? Once farmers restructure crop rotations, higher prices may not immediately restore lost wheat acreage.
Global grain traders should watch this closely. A persistent contraction in Russian wheat production could reshape export availability and intensify competition across global grain markets.
#Wheat #Russia #GrainMarkets #AgTwitter #Agriculture
Darren Frye retweeted
Italy facing empty supermarket shelves? 🇮🇹
Reports from Palermo claim truckers and farmers are on strike amid fuel prices of $2.40/litre, raising concerns over food distribution and affordability.
When transport stops, food supply chains come under pressure. Even Europe is not immune.
#Italy #FoodSecurity #AgTwitter
Wow - 🤦♂️🤦♂️😃😃🤷♂️🤷♂️
Here’s the full Tesla Roadster unveiling event.
0:15 – Crazy Tesla + SpaceX collab preview
2:25 – Last manually driven Tesla car
2:53 – Taking it way past the limits
3:15 – Countdown & first flight works
5:38 – Flying cars are real
5:41 – Peter Thiel flying cars quote
6:02 – Fan suction system (up to 2G)
6:16 – Downforce & crushing track records
7:08 – Starman appearance
7:52 – Rocket thrusters & full gymnastics
8:52 – Kickflip demo (Tony Hawk approved)
9:32 – Real road car + rocket car future
9:56 – Air tanks, nozzles & specs
10:14 – Rechargeable ultra-high pressure air
10:36 – Car reveal & aerospace design
12:50 – Fan modes
13:37 – Variable pitch rear wing
13:50 – 0-60 goal under 1 second
14:21 – Acceleration demo
16:22 – 0.81s 0-60 achieved
16:26 – Production car will be even quicker
17:05 – World’s quickest production car
17:28 – Top speed & Snake River Canyon teaser
18:26 – Mach 0.5+ goal
18:52 – First best flying car + last best driver’s car
19:04 – Production starts 2028
Always great to be on AgriTalk!#oatt
PM #AgriTalk - @iwatchcorn @profarmer news. Nick Tsiolis @FarmersKeeper cash grains. @Frye_WSS
@WaterStreetAg with #grain market analysis. @DryCedarFarms @Allendale_inc on #livestock. @AgDayTV @USFarmReport @FarmJournal
omny.fm/shows/market-rally/a…
Everyone proceed at their own risk but #crude flipping to triple up today has me cautious about being short grains or oilseeds even after a bearish Oct WASDE. In addition we saw large accumalation for #crude into the correction. #oatt #corn #soybeans #wheat
Darren Frye retweeted
#MarketsNow @FarmJournal YouTube: @Frye_WSS @WaterStreetAg says #corn sees short covering and #WASDE hangover. Does the market believe the report and what about #NE yield? #Soybeans see harvest pressure #wheat mixed. @AgDayTV @USFarmReport @agritalk
youtu.be/VBIBHPK4VcY?si=OVT4…
Iowa Farmers - is 219 a good estimate for this year? I know you are just getting started but any yields updates compared to LY would be appreciated.
Illinois Farmers - reporting very good stuff South of Springfield (as good or better than LY) and okay from Springfield to Peoria (close to LY) but North of Peoria considerably worse than LY.
#USDA #corn
181.2 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
NE up 11 bushels with G/E at 46%. Whatever strain of cannabis NASS is smoking, they should let us know so we can be as delusional as them!
Had a field chosen for USDA corn yield check a few years ago. (The actual field surveys they use for yield guesses)
The nice USDA lady flagged a short length of row a couple steps into the field right by the driveway.
The first yield guess in August was 210.
September estimate dropped to 190.
Final guess was in early October at 185.
When I harvested the actual field yield was 165.
So keep thinking that these USDA blind ass guesses are legit if you want…
I thought 54 a week ago with early bean yields but the farther my clients get into their beans the yields are going down a bit. Across central IL and IN, group 2.5-2.9 yielded 5-10 above last year and now later season 3.0-3.4 are cutting 5, 10, and in some cases 15 bushels under the 2.5-2.9 group beans. 🤷♂️🤷♂️
Got to wait until USDA says there is a problem. 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
Met with crop insurance agent today that covers 40,000 acres in Illinois Indiana and eastern Iowa says corn yield down 10 to 20%.
Yet these two guys are 175+
@GrainsGorilla @TerryDonahoe2
#corn #OATT #Markets
A few #soybeans pictures from customers in W IA and C IA 10-1-26. Reports of rotting, mushy, and molding beans. 2-5 inches of additional rains overnight. Earliest these beans might be able to be combined will be in 5 to 7 days.
Please check your bean fields and post a picture or 2 of your pod and seed quality. Put county and state if possible.
Soybeans could end up being 54 on yield the best ever and corn will be second in total bushels but I think there is more slippage on corn yields! We will get closer to 170 as harvest continues. #corn #soybeans #oatt
Since everyone forgot what the function of the corn market is during harvest let me share.
We have the 2nd largest crop ever. We are seeing horrible demand at 520+ corn.
The function of the market is to break to a level that promotes exports and end user buying.
Big crop. Needs to find demand.
The yield story is a Jan report story now. Stop trading supply. It’s all about demand today.
We need to find some quickly before we get run over with the gut slot of Harvest in a few weeks.
Darren Frye retweeted
US soybean market is suddenly getting tight at the worst possible time.
Harvest delays from persistent rains are leaving crushers scrambling for nearby beans.
• Bunge Iowa: +$0.85/bu premium for prompt delivery
• Cargill Sioux City: as high as +$1.00/bu vs Nov CBOT
• Cash price reached ~$14.17½/bu
• Some crushers are slowing/curtailing crush due to bean shortages
• Cargill plants in Iowa reportedly stopped posting soymeal offers
• Oct soymeal futures hit a life-of-contract high and moved into an unusual inverse vs Dec
• USDA expects record 2.78 billion bu US soybean crush this crop year
The key issue: old-crop stocks are dwindling while new-crop beans are stuck in the fields.
And forecasts still call for more rain next week.
This is more than a harvest-delay story. It is creating a very real nearby soybean and soymeal squeeze, with the physical market trading at a substantial premium to futures.
Watch the weather + harvest pace closely. Once beans start flowing, these extreme basis premiums can unwind quickly.
#Soybeans #Soymeal #AgTwitter #AgWx
