Economist at Pro Farmer
Iowa, USA
Joined August 2019
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I put together a piece on Friday's crop production report, namely, looking at the objective yield data. A lot of head scratching with this report given the anecdotal yield reports so far this year but I still believe we will see a sizeable drop from where USDA is at now.
profarmer.com/news/inside-us…
What makes it more puzzling. The ear counts for irrigated and non-irrigated were both down from previous counts. Both declining and all-state numbers increasing implies a shift in the ratio of irrigated/non to more irrigated acres. Implied ratio says there's 3.8% more irrigated acres in October vs September. Look at FSA data and the % irrigated shift between the two months is 0.3%.
Lane retweeted
In this week's podcast: @iwatchcorn and @wlwatts discuss western Corn Belt harvest delays, a break in the weather and quality concerns. Spencer Langford previews what to watch for in Friday's Crop Production and WASDE reports.
profarmer.com/news/pro-farme…
Allowing the sale of dyed diesel is only going to further raise the cost of on-farm diesel. Thanks for playing
Lane retweeted
#MarketsNow @FarmJournal YouTube: @iwatchcorn @profarmer says #grains #energy markets see profit taking on peace hopes, #harvest, await #China trade buying. #Cattle correct awaiting cash, #hogs see short covering. @AgDayTV @USFarmReport @agritalk
youtu.be/W4NZntgaOtI?si=sz6d…
Interesting study I put together on pod weights, which have trended lower for the past four years, and how that impacts yield.
Lower pod counts found on Crop Tour contrasted with USDA’s higher figures — here’s what the math says about the potential for a record soybean crop.
profarmer.com/news/usda-vs-c…
Lane retweeted
September objective yield data backs up Crop Tour findings of blank stalks and smaller ears, but USDA’s ear weight assumptions still don’t reflect the full extent of crop stress.
profarmer.com/news/ahead-ope…
China has bought roughly 7.778 MMT of soybeans so far for the 2026-27 marketing year. That is just shy of a third of the total expected for the marketing year. Daily sales have become the norm rather than the exception, but daily volumes are generally just a couple cargoes. If unknown destinations is included, the total jumps to 13.443 MMT, over half the expected total. While a good chunk of those are likely eventually going to China, not all of them are.
Out of the 458 trading days making up the 2025-26 grain marketing year (Nov 1, 2024 to Aug 31, 2026), there were 21 daily closes (eight of those in the last two weeks) above the top third benchmark ($4.74 1/4).
Tells me two things:
1. The market is ruthless.
2. Actively taking advantage of higher prices is key if you want to be in the top third.
Sometimes the gov’t reading all your messages can lead to real, meaningful change. I can’t wait for the royalties. Hopefully the rhetoric is real and we can see lockers drop all the “not for sale” stickers.
If covering inputs, a good idea to advance some sales as well to lock in that margin!
This morning has seen new crop corn jump to $5.30/bushel. When compared against potash values, that puts the updated ratio at 63 bushels of corn per 1-ton of potash.
Folks, that is as low or lower than all but 11% of every week since start of 2022.
PLEASE have a talk.
Make local processing great again.
Would love to see local meat lockers be able to sell meat to local restaurants without having to worry about USDA inspections. Seeing @SecRollins push the President/legislators to axe those regulations would give great upside to local communities, breathing life back into some small U.S. towns that have seen processing outsourced to the Big Four simply because only inspected products can be sold in grocery stores/restaurants. Let the free market decide for itself where its meat comes from.
As far as I can tell, 2023 was the first year Pioneer did this state-wide survey. I hope you all find this data as titillating as I do. Crop Tour samples typically understate Iowa while the Pioneer survey typically overstates, but the margins are somewhat predictable.
As far as I can tell, the methodology is the same. One of the cool things about long-term data collection is if there is a bias, its generally predictable.
