Investor. Small cap asia, tech, monopolies, semi’s
Joined July 2022
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First Hill Capital retweeted
The value of Terafab’s output will place it in the top 20 of country GDP in a single building
According to Korean media, Elon Musk's Terafab is now talking to almost EVERY Korean chip supplier it can find.
Until now, the only known Korean suppliers were HPSP and Hanmi Semiconductor.
Now TheElec reports that Tesla and SpaceX are in talks across nearly every category Korean companies can supply, from basic piping parts to process materials to test components.
At SEMICON West in San Francisco last week, Terafab staff walked straight to around 10 Korean booths on the morning of day one, including ENF Technology, Dongjin Semichem, Hanmi Semiconductor, Unisem and MiCo.
Several companies have already signed NDAs. One got an NDA by email the same evening Terafab visited its booth.
Hanmi Semiconductor is discussing TC bonders for Terafab, and HPSP has agreed to supply one high pressure hydrogen annealing tool to the R&D line.
MiCo's cleaning unit Komico signed a three way NDA with Tesla and SpaceX about a month ago, and ISC is already swapping samples for rubber test sockets.
Tesla and SpaceX do not buy from Chinese suppliers. One Korean supplier put it simply, without China there are only a few options, and Japan is expensive.
They also want prices that are CHEAPER than China.
$LRCX and $AMAT have reportedly built dedicated Terafab teams, and Fujifilm is meeting Terafab buyers regularly on slurries, photoresist and etchants.
The goal is a fab with 1 million wafer starts per month within 10 years, with $16.8 billion of initial investment and more than 3,000 jobs.
SpaceX broke ground in Grimes County, Texas this month, and the first 100,000 wafer per month phase is expected before 2030.
Logic is being done with $INTC, talks with $TSM are ongoing, and memory will be built separately.
One supplier said that if they email Terafab in the middle of the night in the United States, they get an answer in 30 minutes to an hour.
$TSLA and $SPCX are building a chip supply chain at Elon speed.
First Hill Capital retweeted
text-to-cad just crossed 20,000 stars on github!
here's a lightning talk i gave about it at frontiers, enjoy
First Hill Capital retweeted
Goldman Sachs just more than tripled its 2035 humanoid TAM to $138B while raising its unit forecast to 6.5M with warehouses and logistics expected to lead adoption.
That growth should pull demand through entire robotics stack:
• Foundry: $TSM, $GFS
• Sensing: $VPG, $NOVT
• Vision: $OUST, $AEVA, $INVZ
• Memory: $MU, $SKHY, $SNDK
• Humanoids: $TSLA, $XPEV, $CCXI
• AI Compute: $NVDA, $AMD, $ARM, $QCOM, $INTC
• Simulation & Training: $NVDA, $ADSK, $CDNS, $SNPS
• Semi Equipment: $ASML, $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC, $TER
• Power & Control: $NXPI, $STM, $ADI, $TXN, $ON, $MCHP, $MPWR
First Hill Capital retweeted
Semiconductor equipment companies enable the manufacturing of GPUs, CPUs and memory chips.
They are in a super cycle driven by AI.
Wafer Fab Equipment capex is estimated to reach ~$200B in our base case and ~$260B in our bull case, by 2030.
And we may be conservative.
Three-quarters of each dollar of capex goes towards buying equipment machines from 5 firms led by ASML, Lam, AMAT and KLAC.
Our report deep dives into each of these firms.
First Hill Capital retweeted
UBS: WFE
> For 2026, we raise our WFE forecast from $147.0B (+27% Y/Y) to $158.0B (+36% Y/Y) consisting of $74.5B in Memory (~$56.0B DRAM, +60% Y/Y vs. ~$18.5B NAND, +64% Y/Y) and $83.5B in Foundry/Logic (+19% Y/Y).
> 2027 WFE from $198.0B to $226.0B with Memory spend expected to be $113.8B (~$89.8B DRAM, +60% Y/Y vs. ~$24.0B NAND, +30% Y/Y) and Foundry/Logic spend to be $112.3B (+34% Y/Y).
> 2028 WFE from $247.5B to $274.5B with Memory spend of $125.8B (~$96.8B DRAM, +8% Y/Y vs. ~$29.0B NAND, +21% Y/Y) and Foundry/Logic spend to be $148.8B (+33% Y/Y).
A lot of equipment is needed...
$LRCX $AMAT $TER $ONTO $MKSI $NVMI $ASML
First Hill Capital retweeted
Bro...this GS humanoid report is mega bullish for semis.
- Humanoid TAM forecast increased by ~5x.
- Which is an even better commercial opportunity for semis / precision components such as power semis and memory.
One interesting takeaway from the report is that there are stricter energy efficiency requirements incoming. In turn, these requirements will increase the density for higher priced GaN/SiC components.
The sheer length of the physical AI cycle (including humanoids) will surely be a massive growth driver for semis on top of data center applications...
First Hill Capital retweeted
Well, they are still at 6.5M by 2035
Robot production is much easier to scale than car manufacturing
If physical AI gets cracked in the next 10 years, then even 100M/yr of production capacity will be conservative
First Hill Capital retweeted
Bought $3445.T round 2 @ 5,300. Reclaimed Wafer biz worth mkt cap. 39% stake in GRINM plus net cash worth 400%+ of mkt cap as of last night. RS sold 1% of GRINM earlier this year & noted on recent call it had room to sell "several additional points". 5% sale worth 48% of mkt cap.
First Hill Capital retweeted
Memory spot prices:
> DRAM prices are at multi-decade highs, driven by supply reallocation toward HBM.
> NAND prices are also at all-time highs.
Personally, I think it makes sense to stay long on memory names.
Looking into 2027, I believe that capacity expansions from $SKHY and $MU etc. won't be enough to fill the demand surge - due to a ~2 year year lag needed to fully ramp production at newly built fabs.
The supply/demand inbalance will only worsen.
Source: BofA via DRAMeXchange
First Hill Capital retweeted
DRAM/NAND spot prices broadly stronger than expected.
DRAM spot prices have stayed firm for more than two months, even through the usual soft period.
Most chips, including 16Gb DDR5 and 8Gb DDR4, rose another low-single-digit percentage this week. That points toward roughly 30% sequential gains.
August contract prices for commodity DDR5 are still in the low- to mid-20% range quarter-on-quarter.
Rising September deals could push the full third-quarter ASP closer to 30% or higher. Long-term agreement prices show a wide spread, but the bulk sit near 20% or above.
NAND spot prices have also climbed quarter-to-date, around 20%. That is stronger than earlier sub-20% expectations.
Module makers and OEMs are increasing near-term orders ahead of smartphone and PC launches in September and the fourth quarter. Those products are expected to carry 10% or higher retail prices year-over-year.
China’s July semiconductor import data reinforce the picture. Overall chip imports rose 71% in dollar terms while units grew only 9%. Memory imports jumped 200% year-over-year, far outpacing logic. That points to sharply higher average selling prices.
The pricing environment remains supportive. Current third-quarter ASP assumptions of +23% for DRAM and +15% for NAND look intact.
Below image shows:
Exhibit 11 tracks long-term DRAM spot prices (2000–2026). After softening in April–May, prices rebounded through June–August.
16Gb DDR5 reached multi-decade highs near $53, while 8Gb DDR4 hit around $43 and higher-density parts also rose sharply. These levels sit well above the previous 2017 peak. The move is linked to supply being reallocated toward HBM and server DRAM.
Exhibit 12 shows NAND wafer spot prices (2019–2026). After staying roughly flat to slightly lower through 2Q26 following a strong rally in late 2025 and early 2026, prices rebounded sharply in early August.
512Gb TLC, 256Gb TLC, and 1Tb QLC wafers all moved higher.
BofA Global Research’s August 20 note on global memory tech centers on three points: SK Hynix’s large share buyback, stronger-than-expected DRAM and NAND spot prices, and an upcoming Korea tech tour.
On pricing, DRAM spot prices have held firm for more than two months. Most chips rose low-single digits again this week. Contract prices point to solid sequential ASP gains in the third quarter.
NAND spot prices also rebounded more than expected. Near-term order trends from module makers and OEMs remain positive ahead of new product launches.
The combination of sustained spot strength and constructive order signals supports the view that demand is still outrunning supply in the current cycle.
$MU $SKHY
First Hill Capital retweeted
I thought data centers just suddenly stopped using NAND and it was over, why are we paying 50% more for it in August?
First Hill Capital retweeted
SK hynix to Accelerate KRW 40 Trillion Share Buyback and Cancellation; Raises Shareholder Return Target to “At Least 50% of FCF”
▶️ Share Buyback and Cancellation
- On August 19, the board approved the repurchase and cancellation of KRW 40 trillion worth of treasury shares.
- Based on the previous day’s closing price of KRW 1,662,000 per share, the company plans to acquire approximately 24.07 million shares, equivalent to around 3.3% of total shares outstanding.
- The repurchase will begin on August 20 and continue for approximately three months, after which all acquired shares will be cancelled.
- This will be the largest share cancellation ever undertaken by a Korean-listed company.
▶️ Rationale Behind the Decision
- The company believes its current share price does not adequately reflect its intrinsic value, considering its business competitiveness, cash-generating capacity, and medium- to long-term growth prospects.
- SK hynix’s net cash position reached approximately KRW 69 trillion as of the end of the second quarter, reflecting a significant improvement in cash generation.
▶️ Accelerated Implementation of Shareholder Return Policy
- The company is accelerating the implementation of its existing policy to return up to 50% of cumulative free cash flow generated between 2025 and 2027.
It also plans to raise its shareholder return target from “up to 50% of cumulative FCF” to “at least 50%.”
- With progress toward its financial soundness targets remaining on track, the company intends to continue shareholder returns while maintaining a stable financial structure.
▶️ Next Steps
- SK hynix plans to combine share buybacks and cancellations with cash dividends, while also considering measures to expand dividends, including higher fixed dividends and special dividends.
- The specific size and structure of additional shareholder returns will be determined by the board and announced alongside the company’s third-quarter earnings results.
$SKHY
First Hill Capital retweeted
Check out the SK hynix video: Few companies have swung so hard between crisis and success like SK hynix.
After years of losses, SK hynix was nearly written off. SK bought it anyway.
It made HBM. And it for years sat as this niche product few cared about until November 2022.
One of my favorite stories of the year: youtu.be/Cg5tAujp6Go
First Hill Capital retweeted
Some interesting valuations in Korea right now. Here's one: Daou Technology $023590.KS is a long @ ₩40,000. Highly asymmetric setup with a free option on Korea’s Value-Up progress. Trades at 43% of NAV of ~₩92,000 and under 3x EPS. 1/n
First Hill Capital retweeted
BofA latest memory update:
> SK Hynix’s DRAM ASP recovery is expected to accelerate to +25% QoQ in 3Q
> Kioxia trading at liquidation multiple of 3.1x guided to +35% QoQ revenue growth in 3Q, implying nearly +20% NAND ASP growth
> expects another round of last-minute price hikes in 4Q
> expects no hard landing with margins remaining structurally high.
> NAND spot prices posted surprise rebound 5–6% WoW, legacy NAND rose more than 10%, and DRAM spot increased another 1–2%.
> Samsung could return W100tn+ through special dividends, buybacks and year-end dividends. BofA also expects SK Hynix to return 50% of FCF, weighted toward buybacks.
First Hill Capital retweeted
Elon Musk just annihilated the memory bears.
Elon Musk on SpaceX earnings call: “Limiting factor currently is memory. Memory output is increasing by around 20% per year. Now normally that would be fantastically fast and amazing for any large mature industry. But ask yourself is the demand increasing by 20% a year? No, the demand is increasing by 200% a year, maybe higher. So if you've got demand increasing much faster than supply then Economics 101 would suggest that the price increases. It does not decrease.”
First Hill Capital retweeted
Korea’s semiconductor exports showed strong momentum in July.
According to SK Securities preliminary data:
- DRAM: $13.55 billion, up 21% month over month and 47% quarter over quarter.
- DRAM modules: $7.67 billion.
- MCP: $10.09 billion.
- SSD: $4.51 billion.
- NAND: $1.78 billion.
DRAM stands out as the clear leader. The strong sequential growth points to continued heating demand, especially for high-performance memory.
This is positive for the major players: Samsung, $SKHY SK Hynix, $MU Micron, and Kioxia. AI servers and data centers keep pulling hard on advanced DRAM and HBM supply.
Some categories showed month-over-month softness, but the quarterly trends remain solid. Memory prices and AI-driven demand are doing most of the work.
Korea’s chip export engine keeps running strong. It will be interesting to see how these export numbers translate into earnings for the memory makers in the coming quarters.
Is the AI memory boom still in its early innings? What is your take?
