AI bubble unwind or hedge fund leverage bubble unwind? Exponential progress vs fixed drawdown triggers, monthly liquidity, factor risk management based on factors disrupted by AI and covariance risk matrices based on correlations and volatility pre AI leads to a structural market change. Add in agentic trading and get ready for 24/7 tokenization! This is just the beginning.

Did the AI bubble didn't pop or did Hedge fund leverage The S&P is 2.7% off all-time highs. If the AI bubble did pop, everyone is getting an amazing opportunity to short a bubble at the highs which would be a first for me. This is just the beginning of a long recognition of the change in the AI market structure where concentration and crowdedness collide where there is visibility of orders out to 2030 but uncertainty of terminal value for everything more than three years ahead with exponential change. AI progress drives revenues and progress is accelerating but PEs are contracting and risk premium is rising for all long duration assets on the back of uncertainty. This reminds me of LTCM. Certainty of the thesis but a lot of time to hold the trades vs investors and lenders interested in monthly returns. Hoodies up! Watch here:youtu.be/TB_-4pN1dsA For Subscriber Info visit ai.22vresearch.com or visser-labs.com Contact Mark Whaling @ [email protected]

this week's episode goes into the AI agent led bankpocalypse through the pressure for legacy bank spreads and settlement advantages, while at the same time driving the next crypto cycle through demand for compute, stablecoins, tokenization, and Bitcoin. The world of slow GDP with middlemen taking spreads moves to a high speed small spread world.

Let's take the breadth rates question to another place. Since all the charts I see and hear from people is about history (even the dotcom bubble) while the economy has completely changed since the GFC. Here is 2015 homebuilders and F/GM revs vs NVDA and MU vs today. The second chart shows that current forecast rev increase for NVDA from 27-28 is as big as the 2015 total revs for those old economy stocks and 75% of this year. The economy has changed since the iPhone and to act like the rate sensitivity and breadth for the market has not is like comparing QBs stats today vs QBs in the 1970s.

As you hear rates are going to take down everything and people telling you weak breadth is confirming, the simplest place to look and see if the market is discounting rate sensitivity or investors fears about broader market problems are to look at staples and utilities. SPX over XLP made new highs the past week as did Financials over Utes. Staples outperforming SPX has been a great breadth signal over the last 25 years for confirmation of coming risk. See DotCom bubble. Ford, GM, Homebuilders, Real Estate etc are going down (rate sensitive) while NDX over SPX 3 week RoC is its best since 2023 aside from coming out of the Iran depths in March. If you are worried because of the new fresh bear porn, watch XLP over SPY for a warning. Currently it is flashing green light and real risk is a bounce in breadth.

The market is living through a time mismatch. People are still debating rates, breadth and old-cycle recession signals while AI agents, tokenization and machine-speed economics are changing the rules underneath them. In my new video: • Why there’s a bear market inside the bull market • Why consumer agents are the next major AI inflection point • Why AI + tokenization changes how we should think about growth, money and competition • Why I want to be long speed and short friction • And why I believe crypto has reached its App Store moment with AI consumer agents filling the Ghost Rails The speed of intelligence is accelerating. The speed of money now has to catch up. New video 👇 youtu.be/LhuSxhCNa5g

I sat down with @natbrunell this week. Each time we sit down I feel we explore places I have not spoken about before. I wrote a Substack about her recent Bitcoin book this week ahead of us sitting down and together we connect a lot of important macro connections to AI, crypto and both of our BTC journeys. I enjoyed doing it and I think you will enjoy listening to it at a critical point in AI connecting to crypto.

1/ For those who have been asking, next week is the beginning of my weekly crypto video and research. The first question is WHY NOW? Because crypto has reached an important transition: from investing primarily in the promise of future adoption to investing in measurable economic activity. And AI agents are the catalyst.

Hot PPI, Hot CPI, 10% chance humanity dies, pause AI, Fed hawkish hike, brent hits 110, 10 yr rates hit highest level since 2007. That is the last week and as of now, SPX futures are down 30bps since 9/9 close. AAII Bear reading hits 53. That has happened 4.5% of the weeks since 1990. Combine that with a VIX below 20, 0.53% of the weeks. Combine that with a bull market defined by rising 50 week mov avg and above it and down to 0.48% of weeks. I won't add in 30+% EPS growth and rising estimate revs with the most important technology in human history. I would say this is what climbing a wall of worry looks like. All this and MAGS about to make new all time highs.