Investor (looking for the next Big Short)/Inventor (BlackJack Side-Bet Games)/Skeptic (student of Behavioral Finance)/Hedonist; not Investment advice
United States
Joined November 2015
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Jeff returns to @OnTheTapePod to share his & @RenMacLLC thoughts on the markets. Wide-ranging discussion including his top picks: $XLE $XLV & what to avoid: $DRAM. We discuss his recent podcast w/ @arakharazian on AI spending trends. We hit #Treasury #Debt & more
@ClearStreetLLC
New pod out now! @dmoses34 sits down with Jeff deGraaf, CEO & Chief Market Strategist of @RenMacLLC
💾 Only 2 Chip Stocks Pass the Test
🧪 Healthcare Is Tech’s Natural Hedge
💸 Bessent’s Peashooter, Not a Bazooka
🍂 Seasonality Is Bullish, "Just 10th on the List"
YouTube: youtu.be/uvgJ39P4eUw
Apple: apple.co/4hLY10z
Spotify: tinyurl.com/3jn5kb3a
Note published today on our @Substack comparing the movie “Field of Dreams” to the current A.I. environment.
@VD718 @Seawolfcap
whatarewedoingonthedesk.subs…
Market cycles might not repeat but they often “rhyme”. We will have a note out Monday whatarewedoingonthedesk.subs… which draws some comparisons on what we are seeing now to both the “dot.com bubble” (1999-2000) and the GFC (2007-2008). This cycle has a bit of both. Watching the action in some of these stocks, specifically $CRWV (GFC flashbacks when looking at where their debt is trading-CDS), it reminds me of March 14th, 2008 as we headed into the weekend with uncertainty surrounding Bear Stearns. We all know what happened on March 17th, 2008. I am NOT comparing CoreWeave to Bear at this point but sometimes these fears can feed on themselves and they are/were both important players in their respective ecosystems. At the very least, it’s a wake up call for investors to begin to take a closer look at balance sheets, business economics and forecasts. This coming Monday, October 19th, is also the 39th anniversary of the 1987 market crash, fueled by rising rates and extended valuations, known as “Black Monday”. Let’s hope that particular event does NOT repeat.
Market cycles might not repeat but they often “rhyme”. We will have a note out Monday whatarewedoingonthedesk.subs… which draws some comparisons on what we are seeing now to both the “dot.com bubble” (1999-2000) and the GFC (2007-2008). This cycle has a bit of both. Watching the action in some of these stocks, specifically $CRWV (GFC flashbacks when looking at where their debt is trading-CDS), it reminds me of March 14th, 2008 as we headed into the weekend with uncertainty surrounding Bear Stearns. We all know what happened on March 17th, 2008. I am NOT comparing CoreWeave to Bear at this point but sometimes these fears can feed on themselves and they are/were both important players in their respective ecosystems. At the very least, it’s a wake up call for investors to begin to take a closer look at balance sheets, business economics and forecasts. This coming Monday, October 19th, is also the 39th anniversary of the 1987 market crash, fueled by rising rates and extended valuations, known as “Black Monday”. Let’s hope that particular event does NOT repeat.
This was quite an interview. @Seawolfcap & R.P. reminisce about their days at @BrownUniversity but then we quickly turn to the "Cassandras" that have proven to be accurate & how R.P.'s team at Ergo help make sense of the challenges we are facing today, both here (U.S.) & abroad.
On The Tape with @dmoses34, @Seawolfcap, @VD718 and Ergo CEO R.P. Eddy is out now!
Cassandras: Why the Warnings Get Ignored🔮
The End of Pax Americana🌎
China's Rare Earth Stranglehold 🇨🇳
Inside the Pressure Campaign on Iran 🇮🇷
Can Bessent Fix the Bond Market?💵
YouTube: youtu.be/RRZ83LY5EkY
Apple: apple.co/4yF7Jrs
Spotify: tinyurl.com/2yu5navz
We are excited to partner with @ClearStreetLLC and are looking forward to collaborating on content and engaging with their clients. Myself, @Seawolfcap & @VD718 have enjoyed building our @Substack and growing the @OnTheTapePod and @ClearStreetLLC is a perfect complement to that.
New partnership: Seawolf Capital's Danny Moses (@dmoses34), Vincent Daniel (@VD718), and Porter Collins (@Seawolfcap) are teaming up with Clear Street. Expect original market commentary, live calls, and new programming alongside On The Tape, The Friday Night Dirty, and more.
Learn more here: clearstreet.com
We @Seawolfcap @VD718 recorded this "Friday Night Dirty" after the close Thursday. We felt “Running on Empty”, best describes the state of the U.S. Treasury Market at the moment. We also discuss $CRWV $GLAS and more..
Is The Bond Market Running On Empty? whatarewedoingonthedesk.subs…
Danny Moses retweeted
New pod in your feed this morning!
Dan sat down with @RealJimChanos and @GaryMarcus to talk all things AI, data center financing, agentic systems, animal spirits and p(doom) scenarios 🎙️🤖
YouTube: youtu.be/g9KdLg9sTX4
Apple: apple.co/4xFzz5v
Spotify: tinyurl.com/yfcsh2c8
Always great to get @DDeBusschere22V thoughts on the markets. We hit #FED #TREASURY & why the strong economy is sending 10 yr yields higher (not just inflation). We discuss the upcoming elections (U.S. & Brazil). Of course we had to discuss @nyknicks & the launch of @22VAdvDirect
New On The Tape with @dmoses34 and @DDeBusschere22V is out now 🎙️
🏦 Why the Fed Was Right to Hike
🤖 AI Capex Is Coming for Treasuries
📉 Why Higher Unemployment Would Be Bullish
💻 Long Software, Watch Housing
🇧🇷 Brazil's Election Rerating Trade
YouTube: youtu.be/n82qJpVq5c4
Apple: apple.co/4xI8u1H
Spotify: tinyurl.com/2sd7xbtz
Our note (August 5th) was about Treasury's YEN intervention & why there was more to come. Our new note discusses what's happened since & what to expect from the #FED. If you can count cards, you have a much better chance when "betting against the house".
whatarewedoingonthedesk.subs…
Danny Moses retweeted
He saw the housing bubble BEFORE it burst
Then helped pull off one of the greatest trades in Wall Street history
Danny Moses (@dmoses34) of THE BIG SHORT joins us LIVE
What does he see in today’s markets that everyone else is missing?
xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1wxWjlAry…
On this week's "Friday Night Dirty" @Seawolfcap @VD718 & myself discuss the recent actions/words that Bessent is using to try & instill confidence in our Treasury markets. Preview of the #FED & more.
The Donkeys Are Counting Cards & Taking On “The House” whatarewedoingonthedesk.subs…
Danny Moses retweeted
"Households now have more wealth in the equity market than they do in their homes... it's the first time that's happened in multiple decades."
@CameronDawson to @dmoses34 on why the stock market has quietly become the thing the economy can't afford to have go down 🏡📈
Always insightful and generous with her time, @CameronDawson shares her thoughts and views on the markets. September tends to be a tough month for markets in a mid-term election year & this one is no different. "Price leads Data" and Cameron breaks down that data she is watching.
New On The Tape with @dmoses34 and @CameronDawson out now🎙️
📉 Falling Valuations, Rising Stocks
🤖 Mag 7's Earnings Quality Problem
💸 AI Capex Is Crowding Out the Market
🏠 The Stock Market Is the New Housing Market
🥇 Gold: Narrative vs. Reality
YouTube: youtu.be/zh-wizTNeC0
Apple: apple.co/4iWlbCa
Spotify: tinyurl.com/3huvzebz
Somehow on this week’s “Friday Night Dirty” we were able to incorporate Dolly Parton, Braveheart, The Untouchables, Ocean’s Eleven & The Harlem Globetrotters all in one episode: $NVDA $GLNG $SCHW #FED #TREASURY @Seawolfcap @VD718
substack.com/@whatarewedoing…
The last time @nedmichaels was @OnTheTapePod was in late March for @TheMasters preview & the impact the war in Iran was having on the markets. While $/YEN is roughly flat, global bond yields are higher & Treasury intervention has begun. We hit $GLD $MLPA #FED & @TOURChamp preview
The return of @NedMichaels to On The Tape with @dmoses34 is out now!!!
⛳ Tour Championship Picks
🏌️ President's Cup Preview at Medina
🏦 Kevin Warsh's First Jackson Hole as Fed Chair
🥇 Why Gold (and the Miners) Keep Climbing
🛢️ MLPs, LNG & Energy Infrastructure Plays
🏛️ Government Shutdown Odds
YouTube: youtu.be/UJkzkv5sO88
Apple: apple.co/3SR1vVI
Spotify: tinyurl.com/2n3k5txc
One of the big takeaways/validations from this, which came up in my conversation with @nkagan_official when she was @OnTheTapePod, was that roughly 75% of people that visit @Kalshi use it as an accurate source for information, whether or not they trade on the platform.
Hard to believe it has already been a year since @sonalibasak announced she was heading to @icapitalnetwork & she has been busy. We discuss Sonali's most recent research reports & cover several topics, including AI, Bonds, the consumer, & what went down at Situational Awareness.
The long awaited return of @sonalibasak to On The Tape with @dmoses34 is out now!!!
🤖 The Real Winners as AI Token Costs Collapse
🏦 Nvidia's $500B Compute Financing Play
📉 Situational Awareness (Or Lack Thereof)
🛢️ $80 Oil & Concerned Consumers
💴 Treasury Market Worries
YouTube: youtu.be/ZVWEkWV6Spw
Apple: apple.co/3S5FP7N
Spotify: tinyurl.com/443ardtf
Larry Fink @CNBC : "Importantly, I look at the financing of data centers..um..this is the very beginning like what it was when I started in the (MBS) market in the 1970’s and I look upon this as a next future for financial engineering" (LET'S HOPE NOT!)
cnbc.com/video/2026/08/10/pr…
The $JPY is beginning to fade & while I'm sure more intervention is coming (Bessent: we will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention) it reminds me of this scene (Jaws) when Quint is shocked the shark can go under w/ 3 barrels @GuyAdami
youtube.com/watch?v=LiC4eMMa…