We think that the increase in 10-year yields will cool some demand in housing and auto and ultimately slow consumption enough that the Fed only has to hike cumulative two to three times, which is another way of saying the financial conditions tightening we've seen will be enough. Doesn't mean 10-year yields are coming down. Just hanging out around these levels should do the trick. For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Full Disclosures: 22vad.com/disclosures/

Investors increasingly believe growth can remain well above the economic speed limit (roughly ~2% real GDP growth) despite 10-year yields around 5.3%. Our view is that the recent tightening in financial conditions should slow consumer spending toward real income growth. I also discuss the $400–600B of AI ARR needed to underwrite the next phase of the capex buildout. Full Episode: open.spotify.com/episode/3o2… --- For informational and educations purposes only. Not investment advice. Full Disclosures: 22vad.com/disclosures/

The economy’s speed limit may be higher than we thought (closer to 2.25% real GDP vs 2%). But the current pace of real GDP is still running above that speed limit, helping explain why 10yr yields remain above 5%. Our best guess is bond vol starts to fall as the increase in interest rates eventually slows real GDP growth. For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Full disclosures: 22vad.com/disclosures/

As long as economic growth is strong and well above the economic speed limit, then the 10yr yield will adjust higher to encourage some slowing in consumption. For informational and educational purposes only. 22vad.com/disclosures/